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Lebanon (Superthread)

IMO even the Lebanese army soldiers who want to make this work simply cannot do much anyway- Hizbollah will put the squeeze or the knife to  their families.   
 
A bit of an account of being on the receiving end of an anti-tank rocket, shared in accordance with the "fair dealing" provisions, Section 29, of the Copyright Act - http://www.cb-cda.gc.ca/info/act-e.html#rid-33409

Analysis: Anti-tank rockets menace Israelis
Joshua Brilliant, United Press Int'l, 14 Aug 06
http://www.washtimes.com/upi/20060811-112728-3564r.htm

One can easily distinguish between soldiers and civilians lying in Haifa's Rambam Hospital.
      The pajamas are the same and age is not necessarily an indication since the soldiers wounded in Lebanon include reservists. But while the civilians are often alone, the soldiers are surrounded by family, friends, and comrades who are sometimes in arms.
      Those whose injuries are lighter might be out of bed visiting comrades hospitalized in other rooms.
      Gray haired, pot-bellied men who had served in the Golani infantry brigade some 40 years ago this week made the rounds, giving wounded soldiers sweets, chocolates and t-shirts with an olive tree printed on them. The olive tree is Golani's emblem. One of the soldiers hung the brigade's yellow-green flag on a beam over his bed.
      In another room, 35-year-old paratrooper in the reserves Gadi Waisman recalled how he was wounded Wednesday morning in Taibeh, in the eastern sector of southern Lebanon.
      The interview was interrupted when sirens blared, warning of a rocket attack, but the visitors stayed in the room with Waisman and another soldier whose bed was near the window. No rocket fell within earshot and two minutes later it was clear the imminent danger was over.
      Waisman said his unit had moved into a house at night, and posted a guard who was supposed to look out for enemy gunmen.
      Hezbollah spotted them first and fired two anti-tank rockets through the windows, killing the guard and wounding seven soldiers in a nearby room.
      "Maybe we made too much noise," Waisman suggested.
      In the hospital's ground floor shopping area a family was with Michael, a 19-year-old tank gunner.
      Michael, who declined to give his full name, had a bloodshot eye, bandages wrapped his left arm and leg and plaster covering his nose.
      A rocket hit his tank en route to Bint Jbail and sent shrapnel flying inside. Michael recalled the blast, smoke, noise and flying shrapnel.
      Fire, he was asked?
      "I saw something yellow. I don't know what it was. We were busy getting out. We didn't pay attention," he said. "I knew they have people with RPGs (rocket propelled grenades) and missiles but... we didn't know the had RPG or anti-tank squads there. We thought they would come from another direction and when we stopped firing they suddenly emerged from the side."
      Hezbollah guerrillas have been firing an array of anti tank rockets. One, two or three people can fire them from close ranges of a few dozen meters and up to five or six kilometers away, the head of the Armored Corps Brig. Gen. Halutz Yerudoi Friday told Israel's Channel 2 TV.
      The missiles include the RPG-29 that Russia recently sold Syria. It has a tandem warhead. The first explosion is supposed to blow away the tank's protective shield and the second penetrates it.
      Israeli intelligence knew the types of the anti-tank missiles sent to Hezbollah. "We were surprised by the quantity of missiles, not by their types," Yerudoi said.
      Hezbollah seems to be in a unique position. It is "very much like an Iranian division," according to intelligence Brig. Gen. Yossi Kupperwasser. It has communications systems, logistics units, anti-tank units and close artillery support, he said.
      Its weapons are in quantities befitting an army but it operates like a guerrilla force, noted reserve Col. Eitan Azani, a senior researcher at the International Policy Institute for Counter Terrorism in Herzliya.
      They hide in well-camouflaged underground bunkers or in fields where they that have food, water, ammunition and, in the bunkers, electricity.
      When the Israelis arrived, they waited for the area to calm down and then emerged to search for Israel's weak spots, fire at them, and slip again out of sight if they could do so before the Israelis, backed by air surveillance systems, targeted them. The Israelis hit them sometimes with light arms and other times with tank and air power.
      The army provides no exact figures on the number of tanks Hezbollah has hit. Yerudoi said Israel has hundreds of locally-made Merkava tanks in Lebanon; a few "tens" were hit and fewer than 10 were damaged.
      Haaretz newspaper said that rockets and explosive charges severely damaged "more than 20 tanks" and that several tanks were totally destroyed.
      By Friday afternoon 84 soldiers had been killed and some 300 wounded, the army spokesman reported. According to the army's chief surgeon, Brig. Gen. Chezy Levy, many injuries are from missiles and explosive charges. Compared with the injuries in the 1973 war with Egypt and Syria, the 1982 war in Lebanon and the 2002 fighting in the West Bank, "we see new things, very intensive injuries." However, there are not many bullet wounds, he said.
      The extensive and effective use of rockets and missiles, which Israel has failed to stop in a month of fighting, has made an impact on Israel's enemies.
      "All the players here sit and watch the other side," Azani said. Hezbollah has been transferring know-how to Hamas and Islamic Jihad, who will also try to benefit from the weak spots the Lebanese militia have discovered.
      Haaretz quoted a member of Fatah's al-Aksa brigades in Bethlehem, identified only as Muayen, who said: "The brothers in the Deheishe refugee camp are no longer interested in games with Kalashnikov (assault rifles); they want anti-tank rockets... When this technology arrives, how difficult would it be for one of the fighters to sit on the Palestinian side of the wall (the security barrier) at Abu Dis and fire a rocket at the King David Hotel (in Jewish west Jerusalem)? With less effort than a suicide bombing or shooting one can fire a missile and get the same results."
      Azani told United Press International he anticipated a Palestinian attempt to emulate Hezbollah, although he did not believe the Palestinians would be as successful.
      Hezbollah had six years to prepare for a conflict and received extensive help from Iran and Syria, while Lebanon provided the territory.
      Hamas cannot produce missiles that are among the most advanced weapons modern armies have, Azani continued. Israel surrounds the West Bank, Egypt will not allow such weapons through its territory to the Palestinians, and the Israeli navy patrols Gaza's coast. The quantities that could be smuggled to the Palestinians would not be big enough to change the overall picture, he predicted.
      In the meantime, Israeli infantrymen change the houses in which they stay. Officers analyze the battles so tank crews can amend their tactics. "We learn 10 times quicker than they," boasted Staff Sgt. Eran Blumberg, a tank commander in the reserves.
      The army is likely to devote more time and money to training its reservists, something it has curtailed in recent years, as the main threat was coping with the Palestinian intifada. Scientists are developing new weapons to cope with anti-tank missiles. One project unveiled this year envisaged the release of very hot particles to melt a missile.
      Yiftah Shapir, of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, said solutions "are known technologically and the prototypes are beginning to appear." There will be anti-missile-missiles for tanks to fire, but it will take five to 10 years for the technology to be available.
      The tanks' days are not over yet, he said.
 
I've been trying to figure this out since the beginning of this affair and subsequent "ceasefire" came into effect. How can the UN negotiate a ceasefire agreement with a nonstate entity? Does this not then give some legitimacy to the organization that is Hezbollah? I understand that there is much "dividedness" and political unwill for Lebanon to take action, but this I think sets precedance on a global scale that can only lead to really bad things occuring.
 
Probably why Israel held Lebanon responsible for Hizbollah attacks. Hizbollah seems to have veto power over the cabinet. Minority rule because the majority wont fight.
 
Although the UN res'n
http://daccessdds.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N06/465/03/PDF/N0646503.pdf?OpenElement

calls for Hezbollah and ISR to stop shooting, so to speak, it appears to put the ball in Lebanon's court (with help from UN forces)....

"Emphasizes the importance of the extension of the control of the Government of Lebanon over all Lebanese territory in accordance with the provisions of resolution 1559 (2004) and resolution 1680 (2006), and of the relevant provisions of the Taif Accords, for it to exercise its full sovereignty, so that there will be no weapons without the consent of the Government of Lebanon and no authority other than that of the Government of Lebanon...."

Also, later in the res'n

"Calls for Israel and Lebanon to support a permanent ceasefire and a longterm solution...."

I stand to be corrected, but sounds like it'll be up to the Gov't of LBN to keep a grip on Hezbollah - sure worked well in the past  ;)

FYI, here's Kofi's follow-up tasks, requested by the Secur Council:
"Requests the Secretary-General to develop, in liaison with relevant international actors and the concerned parties, proposals to implement the relevant provisions of the Taif Accords, and resolutions 1559 (2004) and 1680 (2006), including disarmament, and for delineation of the international borders of Lebanon, especially in those areas where the border is disputed or uncertain, including by dealing with the Shebaa farms area, and to present to the Security Council those proposals within thirty days"

and

"Requests the Secretary-General to report to the Council within one week on the implementation of this resolution and subsequently on a regular basis..."

SHAMELESS SELF-PROMOTION  ;D - I've got the more relevant UNSC res'ns posted here:  http://milnewstbay.pbwiki.com/IDF-LBN%20Bkgnd
 
Heard on the radio that Hezbolah has committed itself to financing the rebuilding of all the war ravaged villages (that they were instrumental in having levelled in 1st place).

Any guesses as to where the actual money is going to come from?

Iran & Syrian interests strike again.
 
They rebuild the homes and infrastructure that the Zionist murderers destroyed, thus earning even more credit with the average Lebanese, after having stood up to those same Zionist murderers (which means victory, in the twisted logic of the average ME Arab).

Brilliant, really. They'll have more seats in the next elections. We're going to end up having to burn them out.
 
Hezbolla may not get off that lightly

Lebanese anger at both US, Hizbullah grows after truce
August 15, 2006 at 11:30 a.m. Christian Science Monitor
Some Lebanese feel they were used as pawns in the conflict.
By Tom Regan  | csmonitor.com
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0815/dailyUpdate.html?s=mesdu

As many families in Beirut and southern Lebanon began to return to what was left of their homes Monday, the shock of the past few weeks was giving way to anger at all of the parties involved in the conflict. While many reports from traditional media reflect Lebanese hostility towards the US, Lebanese bloggers are accussing Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hizbullah, of using the country, and its people, to further his own agenda.

McClatchy Newspapers reported last week that Lebanon is in the grip of anti-American sentiment. One example of this, reporter Leila Fadel writes, is a huge banner showing Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice with vampire fangs that "looms over the now nearly empty streets of downtown [Beirut]." The change in attitude towards the US comes less than a year after many Lebanese saw the US as a friend on their road to democracy.
More on link


 
Backroom deals already being cut????

Shared in accordance with the "fair dealing" provisions, Section 29, of the Copyright Act - http://www.cb-cda.gc.ca/info/act-e.html#rid-33409

Hizbullah likely to retain weapons
Jerusalem Post, 15 Aug 06
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1154525877356&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

Hizbullah will not hand over its weapons to the Lebanese government but rather refrain from exhibiting them publicly, according to a new compromise that is reportedly brewing between Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Seniora and Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

The UN cease-fire resolution specifically demands the demilitarization of the area south of the Litani river. The resolution was approved by the Lebanese cabinet.

In a televised address on Monday night, Nasrallah declared that now was not the time to debate the disarmament of his guerrilla fighters, saying the issue should be done in secret sessions of the government to avoid serving Israeli interests.

"This is immoral, incorrect and inappropriate," he said. "It is wrong timing on the psychological and moral level particularly before the cease-fire," he said in reference to calls from critics for the guerrillas to disarm.

According to Lebanon's defense minister, Elias Murr, "There will be no other weapons or military presence other than the army" after Lebanese troops move south of the Litani. However, he then contradicted himself by saying the army would not ask Hizbullah to hand over its weapons.

Murr added that Lebanon's contribution of 15,000 soldiers could be on the north side of the Litani River by the end of the week.

He noted that international forces could begin arriving next week to bolster the current 2,000-member UN force in southern Lebanon, which watched helplessly as fighting raged over the past month.

In Europe, Italy and France have pledged troops. Malaysia, Turkey and Indonesia were among the mostly Muslim nations offering help.
 
milnewstbay said:
Hizbullah will not hand over its weapons to the Lebanese government but rather refrain from exhibiting them publicly, according to a new compromise that is reportedly brewing between Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Seniora and Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

Anybody that thought Hezbollah (Hizbullah?  Dammit, how is it supposed to be spelled??!?!?) would disarm is smoking rope.  I agree, the cease fire is just an opportunity for them to reorg and resupp. 
 
zipperhead_cop said:
Anybody that thought Hezbollah (Hizbullah?  Dammit, how is it supposed to be spelled??!?!?) would disarm is smoking rope.  I agree, the cease fire is just an opportunity for them to reorg and resupp. 

Things are not looking good, a week or so before the UN even starts to assemble its force.

Reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from today’s National Post (with my emphasis added):

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/story.html?id=cf91e21b-bd1d-45f4-9127-dfb0a4f4c8b5&p=2
Nations refuse to disarm Hezbollah
U.S., France, UN and Lebanon put deal in jeopardy

Allan Woods
CanWest News Service


Wednesday, August 16, 2006

WASHINGTON - The countries tasked with upholding the shaky truce in Lebanon appeared unwilling to force the disarmament of Hezbollah yesterday, a development that threatens to delay the creation of a massive United Nations peacekeeping force and could ultimately set off fresh conflict in the region.

France, the United States, the United Nations and Lebanon itself have all refused to accept responsibility for stripping the Lebanese Shiite militia of their weapons, despite a key element of the UN resolution that calls for the group to give up its firepower and vacate the southern part of the country.

Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah said on Monday that his force will not be pressured into disarming, and he gained key support yesterday from Lebanon's Defence Minister, Elian Murr, who has refused to take up the task of disarmament.

The Lebanese Cabinet agreed to the UN resolution on Saturday, but Mr. Murr explained that his job is not disarmament, but rather to "ensure the security of the [Islamic] Resistance and citizens, to protect the victory of the Resistance."


The Islamic Resistance is the armed wing of Hezbollah. London's al-Hayat newspaper reported yesterday that the Lebanese government is considering allowing fighters to keep their weapons in the southern border zone in violation of the UN resolution.

The about-face is giving the rest of the world second thoughts as well, particularly France, which lost 58 French soldiers to a Hezbollah suicide attack that also killed 231 U.S. Marines the last time it was deployed in Beirut, in 1983.

Philippe Douste-Blazy, the French Foreign Minister, warned yesterday that France, which is expected to contribute 4,000 troops and lead the UN mission, will stay out of Lebanon until it receives guarantees Hezbollah has disarmed. He is expected to discuss the issue at meetings with the Lebanese government in Beirut today. Similarly, both the United States, which does not plan to send troops to Lebanon, and Major-General Alain Pellegrini, the French commander of UNIFIL, the UN peacekeeping force currently on the ground, said it is up to the Lebanese government to strip Hezbollah of its weapons.

"It is Lebanon that is responsible for determining its own future in this regard," David Welch, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, told reporters in Washington yesterday. "By passing this resolution 15-0, unanimously in the Security Council, the world's voice has been made crystal clear."

A spokesman for UN Secretary General Kofi Annan said in New York that it is up to Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah, but that the UN would offer help to enforce the process.  The crisis in the Israel-Lebanon conflict comes as the international community scrambles to determine which countries will contribute to the promised 15,000-troop UN peacekeeping force, and how soon they can get there.

A senior UN official told the BBC the world body is aiming to get an advance force of up to 3,500 troops into Lebanon within two weeks. Lebanon plans to start moving 15,000 of its own soldiers into the southern part of the country this week, and Israel said it could pull out of Lebanon within 10 days. But Maj.-Gen. Pellegrini told France's Le Monde newspaper yesterday that it could take up to one year to get the full force in place in southern Lebanon. Sean McCormack, a U.S. State Department spokesman, said the force needs to be deployed "on a much more urgent basis than that."

"Nobody believes that deploying the force in months is acceptable," he said yesterday.

The question of how quickly the UN force can be in place is vital because last Friday's resolution calls for the withdrawal of the Israeli forces in southern Lebanon at the same time as the international force takes up its positions.

Should the UN force fail to materialize, Israel faces a choice of remaining in southern Lebanon, where skirmishes with Hezbollah fighters continued yesterday, or accepting the presence of a weak Lebanese army as a buffer between it and Hezbollah.

Formal offers of troop contributions are expected to start coming in tomorrow. The bulk of the force is expected to be made of French and Italian troops. Turkey, Indonesia, Spain and Morocco have also been mentioned as potential contributors. Yet as much of the world watches the slow diplomatic process of cleaning up after a war, Israel has already set its sights on what it considers the larger threat to Middle East peace -- Iran.

Shimon Peres, Israel's deputy prime minister, was meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to discuss the situation in the Middle East ahead of a North American tour to raise what is expected to be hundreds of millions of dollars for reconstructions efforts in northern Israel, which was hit hard in the fighting.

U.S. President George W. Bush has been equally vocal about what he calls the destabilizing role that Iran plays in the Middle East, particularly since the Israel-Lebanon conflict began last month. Earlier this week, he warned that it would have been worse had Iran possessed "the nuclear weapon it seeks."

© National Post 2006

I certainly don’t blame the US or France, much less Lebanon for shying away from this task.  The IDF just tried and failed – maybe because it didn’t try long and hard enough.

Anyway, yet another in the long, sorry list of the UN’s failures.

 
In the same vein, shared in accordance with the "fair dealing" provisions, Section 29, of the Copyright Act - http://www.cb-cda.gc.ca/info/act-e.html#rid-33409

Hezbollah balks at border disarmament:  Standoff threatens deployment of Lebanese army
Edward Cody, Doug Struck, Washington Post Syndicate, in San Francisco Chronicle, 16 Aug 06
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2006/08/16/MNGVJKJELG1.DTL

Hezbollah refused to disarm and withdraw its fighters from the battle-scarred hills along the border with Israel Tuesday, threatening to delay deployment of the Lebanese army and endangering a fragile cease-fire.

The makings of a compromise, however, emerged from all-day meetings in Beirut, according to senior officials involved in the negotiations, and Prime Minister Fuad Saniora scheduled a Cabinet session today for what he hoped would be formal approval of the deal. Hezbollah implied it would be willing to pull back its fighters and weapons in exchange for a promise from the Lebanese army not to probe too carefully for underground bunkers and weapons caches, the officials said.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah insists that any disarmament of his militia -- even in the border area -- should be handled in longer-term discussions within the Lebanese government, according to government ministers. But the Lebanese army, backed by key political leaders, refused to send troops into the just-becalmed battle zone until Hezbollah's missiles, rockets and other weapons were taken north of the Litani River, the ministers said.

At stake in the standoff is implementation of a crucial provision of the U.N. Security Council cease-fire that went into effect Monday. The accord calls for quick deployment of 15,000 Lebanese army troops south of the Litani River along the border with Israel. They are to take up positions under the aegis of a more robust, 15,000-strong contingent of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, or UNIFIL, to keep the peace in southern Lebanon.

U.N. officials in New York continued to haggle Tuesday over the mandate and operational rules of the international troops in southern Lebanon, including whether they would have the ability to detain or fire upon suspected Hezbollah fighters engaged in warfare or in gun running.

Some countries have said they prefer a monitoring role, while others seek more robust rules of engagement, said a U.N. official who spoke on condition of anonymity. Among the nations said to be considering taking part are France, Indonesia, Italy and Malaysia.

Hezbollah's reluctance to get its men and arms out of the border zone reflects nervousness over the continuing presence of Israeli soldiers on Lebanese soil. But it also demonstrates the militant group's increased assertiveness after a war of more than a month during which it stood off the Israeli army while Lebanon's national army stood aside.

UNIFIL spokesman Milos Strugar said U.N. observers reported no significant Israeli withdrawals along the border on the second day of the cease-fire. Israel television, however, showed troops walking and riding military vehicles back into Israel and dozens of tanks taking up positions on the Israeli side of the border.

Israeli soldiers killed three armed men who approached their positions in southern Lebanon, the military announced. But there were no reports of rockets being fired or sustained clashes despite the existence of Hezbollah and Israeli positions at relatively close distances.

Thousands of Lebanese families again lined the roads leading south, heeding a call from Hezbollah that they immediately return to their shattered villages. Leaflets dropped by Israeli aircraft warned them to stay away, but cars loaded with children and household belongings streamed down the coastal road.

On the ground, Hezbollah's militia and social welfare infrastructure are the only thing still functioning in dozens of devastated villages across the border zone. Army troops in the village of Srifa, for example, were seen working under the orders of Hezbollah militia officers during a search for bodies buried under the rubble of buildings destroyed by Israeli bombing.

"What are the alternatives you have come up with?" Nasrallah asked. "Can the Lebanese army and the United Nations troops step up to the plate to defend the nation?"

Syrian President Bashar Assad, in a fiery speech Tuesday proclaiming a victory for Hezbollah, cast into doubt any change in political relations in the region.

Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, meanwhile, told CNN on Tuesday that her government has evidence that Iran and Syria are already re-arming Hezbollah, with shipments coming from Syria.
 
The reason the Lebanese government is not responding to give aid to it’s people is because Hezbollah prevents them from doing so, in order to ensure their power base. If the central government officials started to lay down the law and take over the Hezbollah would kill them. Nobody in southern Lebanon can openly criticize the Hezbollah without risking their and their family’s lives.
 
Attention K-Mart Shoppers - quit screwing around in the Lebanon thread; this forum is for NEWS so everyone can keep up with what's going on.  I don't care which side you think is a terrorist....
 
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0816/p11s01-wome.htm

Hizbullah shifts focus from war front to home front
In the second day of the cease-fire, many Lebanese returned home to find Hizbullah vowing to help.
By Scott Peterson | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

BEIRUT, LEBANON
With perfectly pressed robes, the Hizbullah cleric stood out amid the grimy rubble as he tried to give hope to those Lebanese shocked by the destruction of their homes.

"How do we get this help from Hizbullah?" asks one woman, referring to the promise by Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah to repair and rebuild for owners of 15,000 destroyed homes.

"Where are you staying?" he replies in the manner of a seasoned bureaucrat. He says the family should fill out a claim form listing address, size of house, scale of damage, and furniture lost.

"You will get money in an envelope," reassures the black-turbaned cleric, who gave his name as Sayyed Nasri Nassar. "Don't worry, our people are coming to you."

The 34 days of conflict between Israel and Hizbullah uprooted an estimated 900,000 Lebanese and Israeli bombardment left apocalyptic scenes of destruction across Hizbullah strongholds of mainly Shiite south Lebanon and southern districts of Beirut.

But one day after a cease-fire, and just hours after Nasrallah promised that "the brothers, who are your brothers" would take on the reconstruction, Hizbullah's extensive social services system shifted from a war footing to sizing up the huge rebuild task.

Many non-Shiite Lebanese blame Hizbullah for recklessly bringing the current ruin on Lebanon, which officials estimated suffered $2.5 billion in damages. The government, of which Hizbullah is a part, will be responsible for repairing the widespread damage to infrastructure.

But Hizbullah's immediate promise to rebuild - along with widespread confidence here that the resistance won a victory over Israel - is tapping into fresh anger over the destruction, and winning more support for the "Party of God."

"Sheikh Nasrallah will help us rebuild - and God," says Jamal Mizhir, a pharmacist whose aunt collapsed into tears Tuesday when she saw her destroyed home in Beirut's Hizbullah stronghold of Haret Hreik. "When he makes a promise, he's an honest man," says Dr. Mizhir, sounding a frequently heard refrain here. "He always does what he says. That's why we trust him."

For more than two decades, Hizbullah's social networks have filled in for Lebanon's poor Shiites, when weak governments could not fulfill their needs. They operate hospitals, clinics, schools, and social centers.

That work, financed by rich Lebanese Shiites at home and abroad, through local donations, and with significant funds from outside, especially Iran, has done as much as Hizbullah's battles against Israel to win popular support among the Shiites.

They have provided a safety net, analysts say, that has melded the group - which the US labels a terrorist organization - with Lebanese Shiite society.

Even critics of Hizbullah in Lebanon often say they respect the group's integrity, efficiency, and commitment to helping its followers. Nasrallah promised to pay a year's rent for those with destroyed homes, saying Monday night that "we can't wait for the government."

"We don't believe in the government," says Marvat Dahaini, a woman dressed head-to-toe in black. "We believe only in Sheikh Hassan [Nasrallah]. He is our government."

"Hizbullah has a very clean record; anything could have been stolen from here but it wasn't," says Hanadi Mehdi, a literature teacher, casting her arm toward her damaged apartment block, as her brother emerged from a burnt doorway with his computer.

"Some things can't be replaced, like family photos. Your home is your history," says Ms. Mehdi. "The way people think, they have full confidence in Nasrallah, and feel they can confide in him.... Even people who don't support [Hizbullah] respect them."

That respect has built since Hizbullah was created in 1982, forming a model of public service and militancy - conducted efficiently, in a way that local governments could not - that translated into political power. The model was followed by Hamas in the Palestinian territories, and, without the militants, by the Welfare Party in Turkey in the late 1990s.

One example came when this conflict began a month ago and Hizbullah social services adapted to the influx of tens of thousands of displaced people to schools, public parks, and private homes. In Beirut alone, Hizbullah organized 10 mobile medical teams that cared for 14 schools each, in two-day rotations. This aid helped 48,000; another 70,000 people in houses were treated by other professionals.

"People are shocked: All their needs are covered by us, and their gratitude is great," says Ali Taha, a doctor who organizes the teams. He says half the needs of the displaced have been handled by service organizations linked to Hizbullah, such as orphans and martyrs foundations that have kept databases on the refugees.

"The pressure and responsibility of those institutes is much greater than before, to satisfy everyone," Dr. Taha said, the day before the cease-fire sent a stampede of people returning to their homes. "In peacetime, Hizbullah used to give medical services free to the poor, or for a small fee. Now everything is free."

It's a similar story nearby, in a Hizbullah kitchen near downtown Beirut. Volunteers work shifts over vats of rice and stew, to provide 8,000 hot meals a day - part of a 50,000 daily total they distribute across Beirut.

"[Hizbullah guerrillas] are sacrificing their lives, so this is the least we can do," says volunteer Hussein Saloum, who sold fresh fruit juice until falling buildings crushed his shop. "They are giving as much as they can, but the main gift is defending our lands in the south."

"This has a humanitarian purpose, and I feel I'm on a mission," says cook Ali Sirhan, whose restaurant in the southern suburbs of Beirut was damaged. "If I didn't fight there [in south Lebanon], I can fight here."

To understand that depth of support - and how Nasrallah still is seen to "win" here, even though his militia precipitated such a devastating Israeli attack - may depend on understanding the Shiite culture of martyrdom that stretches back to the 7th century.

"This is amazing ... people [still] say, 'We give all our spirit and soul to you [Hizbullah],' " says schoolteacher Mehdi. "You have to go back to collective thinking. People are not so materialistic, but believe in dignity, honor and sacrifice."

"It's really contradictory, because we carry the roots of both fatalism and optimism in us," says Mehdi. "We see people die, and the next day mourn them, and then hear music at night. People are so resilient."

But do people here blame Hizbullah? "Maybe in their heart, but they don't say it," says Izzat Shahrour, a bulky man with arms covered in bomb dust.

And a little help from Hizbullah can ensure that you are a believer. When Mr. Shahrour sent his family away from this district a month ago, he stayed behind to protect his immobile mother. But bombing destroyed a host of adjacent buildings, and the two were trapped in a basement for days.

Then a Hizbullah activist came around, calling out if anybody was left in the area. Shahrour was able to get his arm out through the debris. The man told him to wait. Thirty minutes later the rubble was removed with equipment and a car arrived. At the sound of a whistle, Shahrour scooped up his mother in his arms and raced with her to the car.

"They helped me out," says Shahrour. "They asked me how long we had not eaten, brought us juice, and said: 'Where do you want to go? We are ready.'

I am sure Nasrallah will help, because people believe in him, trust him ... he must help," says Shahrour, of the Hizbullah rebuild promise. "When he spoke, he gave us hope."
 
So it looks like the question of the day is WHO WON??

According to all of the left wing media, Hezbollah did.

Huh??

Well, Israel may have not scored a knock out punch yet, but they are by all accounts at least LEADING.

What keeps getting lost in the MSM and terrorist supporting blogs right now is that Hezbollah will NO LONGER have an armed presence south of the Litani River. This is something that the Lebanese government and the UN have NOT been able to accomplish in years, and NEVER would have even tried. That is obvious.

At least now, if the UN has any resolve to follow through with the agreement in place, Israel has at least accomplished what Hezbollah had been saying would never happen. We are now going to be in a situation where the Lebanese army, NOT Hezbollah is going to take up positions on or near the border with Israel, and that an armed?? UN force will also be there to supposedly ensure no acts of terror or raids can take place.

Hezbollah is NOT going to disarm. That much is sure. This fight is just being postponed to another day. That much is also sure.

However, at least now, the Lebanese government AND the UN will have to FINALLY put up or shut up.

Israel can now regroup back inside their border, and just sit back and watch. They now have every right to expect that there will NOT be any yellow banners fluttering right next to UN flags within eyesight of the Blue Line. They will have every right to expect that the people of Haifa can go about their daily business without looking up. There will be a supposedly robust international force (mainly French by the looks of it) who are promising to not allow infiltration of the area by any Hezbollah terrorists.

We all know however that that is wishful thinking. At least the next time, Israel will not have a reason to hold anything back. My suggestion to the French would be to keep the engine idling and get ready to duck.

My other suggestion would be that Israel put Syria and Iran on notice RIGHT NOW. Since they basically control and support Hezbollah, and use them to fight proxy wars, Israel should make it clear (at the UN itself) that any future attacks by Hezbollah will be regarded as direct attacks by Syria and Iran itself, and Israel would reserve the right to act as they see fit. That way, there will be no excuses next time.
 
big bad john said:
But one day after a cease-fire, and just hours after Nasrallah promised that "the brothers, who are your brothers" would take on the reconstruction, Hizbullah's extensive social services system shifted from a war footing to sizing up the huge rebuild task...But Hizbullah's immediate promise to rebuild - along with widespread confidence here that the resistance won a victory over Israel - is tapping into fresh anger over the destruction, and winning more support for the "Party of God."...That work, financed by rich Lebanese Shiites at home and abroad, through local donations, and with significant funds from outside, especially Iran, has done as much as Hizbullah's battles against Israel to win popular support among the Shiites...
called it. Not so much a prediction, mind you, as simply re-iterating what has gone on before. Often, since the Palestinian invasion, followed by the Israeli one. And, it's gonna happen again, with even more disastrous results for Israel in the Int'l media, and worse, for the Lebanese people on the ground. Except this time, it will also have a larger impact on third-party soldiers.
 
Alas, unless Israel has the stratigic and logistical muscle to do so, taking on Hezbollah, Syria and Iran don't seem to be in the cards anytime soon. Even two out of three is probably outside their reach, and a concentrated "rabbit hunt" burning out Hezbollah bunkers and caches one by one will be many orders of magnitude slower than the resupply of arms, money and advisors from Syria and Iran.

Hearts and minds will be difficult due to the closed nature of Hezbollah and the society they are establishing in south Lebanon, so the centre of gravity should be the rest of Lebanon, to have them shun Hezbollah, seal the border against foreign interlopers and arms that feed the Hezbollah, and eventually squeeze them out of the south.

.02
 
Yeah, but you are forgetting the Shite and Sunni thingy....They are not dividing along political lines (although it does play a factor), but along tribal/religious lines.
 
CanadaPhil said:
So it looks like the question of the day is WHO WON??

There is a thread over at LF on this exact topic.  My thoughts from over there; which pretty much echo my statement from a month ago:

Originally posted by Infanteer:
Anyways, IMHO, tactical stalemate = strategic loss for Israel.

The material losses for Hezbollah will probably be inconsequential.  They'll have plenty of recruits, money and weapons to replace their losses.

What they gained is legitimacy where they want it.  They stood and fought the IDF, making other Arab nations (including our allies like Egypt and Saudi Arabia) look inconsequential.  I think they also made the Lebanese government and military look ineffective - if it didn't before, Hezbollah seems to rival the Lebanese state.  They scored a ratings coup by, to many people, sending the IDF back to Israel for the second time.  In the Arabic (and Islamic?) world at large, they seem to be riding a Public Relations wave, as Abu Buckwheat's observations attest to.

As well, the IDF offensive with tacit US support will probably be a propaganda coup for the AQ machine.  No matter how controlled you are, a Western war machine is quite devastating to the local environs and our enemies will play that for all its worth in the "Zionist/Crusader Offensive" catagory", costing us political currency in the hearts and minds catagory.

The solution isn't much either - a UN/Lebanese force.  The Hizbollah probably will have the local guys by the balls with a knife and unless you get a real good UN force (the Kiwi's come to mind) you are probably going to have an ineffective military force (anyone with experience with the Eurorentals in ISAF will know what I mean).

I give the real victory to those who's strategic goals are a further escalation between Islamist and Western interests at the expense of our influence in the region.  :sigh:

For what it's worth - Cheers,
Infanteer
 
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