Hybrid Electric Vehicles

[Colin Parkinson]

I have a solar system on my cabin and my brother Cabin which more of a house has an very advanced one that can room fridge and micowaves. He also has it set up with a propane generator to kick in if the batteries get low. It is a expensive setup. The big issue is storage and batteries.

 

[Good2Golf]

The big issue is storage and batteries.

Albertans agree. With no storage, solar and wind are of limited benefit…perhaps there is a case for EV’s in Canada? They could be storage for downloading renewable-generated power from the utilities and used as needed to offset utilities output shortages.

 

[Kirkhill]

European electric car market suffers ‘devastating’ collapse after tax breaks scrapped

Falling sales in Germany deal blow to the Continent despite growing global EV demand

www.telegraph.co.uk

Falling electric vehicle (EV) sales in Germany dealt a “devastating” blow to the European market last year, as Chinese carmakers powered ahead of rivals in the West.

The number of EVs sold across Europe fell by 3pc to 3m during 2024, according to data from analysis firm Rho Motion.

This came after the withdrawal of government tax breaks triggered a collapse in sales across Germany.

The drop in Europe compared to a 40pc surge in China, where 11m EVs were purchased. Sales across North America also rose 9pc to 1.8m.

Charles Lester, of Rho Motion, warned that although the global market for EVs had become bigger, “regional disparities have also grown”.

He said: “What is clear is that government carrots and sticks are working.”

Mr Lester said growth in the US could largely be attributed to consumer subsidies, such as those handed out to buyers under Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act.

At the same time, he attributed greater electric car uptake in the UK to the controversial zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate, which required at least 22pc of carmakers’ sales to be electric in 2024.

Government driven market.

 

[ytz]

1) how much cheaper is hydro and nuclear compared to solar at scale

In some markets, it's actually cheaper to install solar at scale, then keep running existing fossil fuel plants (most notably coal). Keep in mind the marginal cost of solar is low. No fuel cost. Very little maintenance costs. This is very different for most other forms of energy. That is why there are headlines like this:

Chart: 85% of new electricity built in 2023 came from renewables

A whopping 473 gigawatts of clean energy capacity was installed last year, yet another indicator of the rapid rise of solar and wind power.

www.canarymedia.com

Solar Accounted for More Than Half of New U.S. Power Last Year

e360.yale.edu

Solar has 10x'd over the last 10 years. And looks set to repeat that again over the next 10-15 years. This may or may not be relevant to the power sector in Canada. But Canada is rather irrelevant to global trends.

2) when these cells and batteries fail-and they will in time-how much of a pollution problem will they be vis-a-vis replacing them and disposing of them?

Do you worry this much about the recyclability of your fridge, stove or dishwasher? Solar panels and battery packs are appliances. And as long as they have material in them that is valuable, they will be recycled.

 

[ytz]

They could be storage for downloading renewable-generated power from the utilities and used as needed to offset utilities output shortages.

Literally a feature that some EVs advertise. Ford with the F-150 Lightning as a home backup generator:

https://www.ford.com/trucks/f150/f150-lightning/features/intelligent-backup-power/

 

[ytz]

European electric car market suffers ‘devastating’ collapse after tax breaks scrapped

Falling sales in Germany deal blow to the Continent despite growing global EV demand

www.telegraph.co.uk

Falling electric vehicle (EV) sales in Germany dealt a “devastating” blow to the European market last year, as Chinese carmakers powered ahead of rivals in the West.



Government driven market.

Same thing happened in China when they cut subsidies a few years ago. Lots of doom headlines. Then their market consolidated and became even more competitive. And now legacy auto in North America, Europe, Japan and Korea are begging governments for protection.

Here's a simple question. If this is all government driven, why do we need tariffs to keep Chinese EVs out? Surely just cut the EV subsidies and legacies will be fine right?

Let's be clear. The subsidies aren't there to help EVs. They are there to save the legacy auto sector from getting absolutely run over by the Chinese as they take one export market after another away from legacies that failed to innovate.

And more relevant to this forum. Chinese EVs are a massive strategic threat. Not just because of the economic threat to legacy automakers. But because having massive battery manufacturing capacity is essential to all mobile and remote systems (ie drones) and provide the capability to reduce dependence on energy imports. The Chinese will sell these EVs all over the Developing World (if legacy markets are closed) and use them to win influence. If you want to cut your imports of oil (which most consuming nations do), there's only one partner who offers you a solution.

It chaps me to no end that the West developed all this technology. And then thanks to stupid culture wars let China win the race to commercialize it. And thanks to culture wars lets China keep gaining ground.

 

[Good2Golf]

Literally a feature that some EVs advertise. Ford with the F-150 Lightning as a home backup generator:

https://www.ford.com/trucks/f150/f150-lightning/features/intelligent-backup-power/

True, but it may be a bit overstated by some. Ford says 3-10days powering the average house. That sounds pretty “brochure-y”…the electron math for that is dodgey. Maybe a day tops? Two?

My neighbour’s Rivian R1T has substantially more capacity than a Lightning (141kWh, vs F-150 Std 98kWh… Platinum is closer at 131kWh, but not Rivian level…although better than Cybertruck’s 123kWh) and during a recent power failure, just over half a day feeding his house and used 1/4 power on his R1T, so that’s 37kWh (of the R1T’s 141kWh battery) so in a pinch, usable, but unless everyone gets big-arse EVs with 100+ kWh batteries, the utilities’ storage shortfall to capture sustainable-ish power will remain a challenge.

And more relevant to this forum. Chinese EVs are a massive strategic threat. Not just because of the economic threat to legacy automakers. But because having massive battery manufacturing capacity is essential to all mobile and remote systems (ie drones) and provide the capability to reduce dependence on energy imports. The Chinese will sell these EVs all over the Developing World (if legacy markets are closed) and use them to win influence. If you want to cut your imports of oil (which most consuming nations do), there's only one partner who offers you a solution.

Are you saying the developing world wants to cut itself off from oil? Indicators are that they will be the last to leave fossil fuels in the rearview mirror.

It chaps me to no end that the West developed all this technology. And then thanks to stupid culture wars let China win the race to commercialize it. And thanks to culture wars lets China keep gaining ground.

…selling e-scooters to the developing world?

Is that a market the West really needs as a strategic technological Nirvana?

 

[ytz]

Are you saying the developing world wants to cut itself off from oil?

Cut itself off? No. Progressively reduce dependence? Absolutely. Canadians living in a developed country with plenty of fossil fuels will never understand this. Developing countries with no oil pay high prices to import and then have to subsidize the consumption because their population often can't afford it. This is devastating to their economies and retards their development. And that's before we get into energy security, where some faraway war messes up supply and sends prices even higher. Being able to reduce oil consumption is absolutely useful for them. And unlike the West, their consumers don't have set habits with vehicle size, range, etc. An example of this is Ethiopia which straight up banned the import of gas cars:

Indicators are that they will be the last to leave fossil fuels in the rearview mirror.

The land line companies in many of these countries had the same mindset.

 

[ytz]

…selling e-scooters to the developing world?

Is that a market the West really needs as a strategic technological Nirvana?

If you don't understand the value of being able to sell the ability to improve energy security, I'm not sure anybody will ever be able to teach you the value of these technologies.

Let's make a bet. You tell me what you think the penetration of EVs and solar will be 5 years from now.

 

[Good2Golf]

Let's make a bet. You tell me what you think the penetration of EVs and solar will be 5 years from now.

Less than 100%

 

[ytz]

Less than 100%

If you're so sure this is all irrelevant Green fluff, than surely with Trump in office, and a bunch of conservative governments around the world, adoption should be less than today right?

By the way. A third of the world still doesn't have internet. By your logic, the internet is a failure. We should go back to mailing letters I guess.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Chinese EV are subsidized by the government and are literally being dumped onto other markets, to kill the competition. The CCP has strategic aims of destroying other peoples manufacturing, while protecting it's own.

Solar and wind are part of the puzzle, but not the end all. Solar, wind coupled with a gas plant makes great sense, you reduce gas use and greenhouse emissions, but still have capacity at all times and some surge capacity to sell.

 

[Good2Golf]

the internet is a failure.

Nope. Its mission was to provide DoD with a survivable, post-attack network to continue defense operations. Of course it was called DARPA-net in the early days.

 

[ytz]

Nope. Its mission was to provide DoD with a survivable, post-attack network to continue defense operations. Of course it was called DARPA-net in the early days.

Yes. I am sure that's where the utility of the Internet stopped for Cold Warriors. For everybody else living in the modern era, it's more than that.

 

[ytz]

Chinese EV are subsidized by the government and are literally being dumped onto other markets, to kill the competition. The CCP has strategic aims of destroying other peoples manufacturing, while protecting it's own.

That was mostly true last decade. Now they are just more competitive. Which is why they can build plants outside China and still whoop the local competition. BYD is doing this in Europe, for example.

They are just highly vertically integrated. And that's a huge part of what makes them successful. BYD makes a larger percentage of their cars in-house than any other automaker in the world. MBAs forcing legacy automakers to outsource everything destroyed the capacity of legacy automakers to innovate and compete. Who is going to have an easier time? Tesla with 900 suppliers or GM with 10 000 suppliers to manage?

Solar and wind are part of the puzzle, but not the end all.

Nobody said it was "the end all". Why put up that strawman?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

That was mostly true last decade. Now they are just more competitive. Which is why they can build plants outside China and still whoop the local competition. BYD is doing this in Europe, for example.

They are just highly vertically integrated. And that's a huge part of what makes them successful. BYD makes a larger percentage of their cars in-house than any other automaker in the world. MBAs forcing legacy automakers to outsource everything destroyed the capacity of legacy automakers to innovate and compete. Who is going to have an easier time? Tesla with 900 suppliers or GM with 10 000 suppliers to manage?

Nobody said it was "the end all". Why put up that strawman?

Killing off power plants across Europe and then discovering that all is not as it is claimed is not a "Strawman". As for BYD, you cannot separate Chinese industry and the CCP, they are fused at the hip. For sure the Chinese sold the MBA types the rope to hang themselves, but the CCP is using BYD and others to kill off the competition, for it's own purposes.

 

[FJAG]

Do you worry this much about the recyclability of your fridge, stove or dishwasher? Solar panels and battery packs are appliances. And as long as they have material in them that is valuable, they will be recycled.

Not stove or dishwasher, all recyclable metals with some insulation that's problematic. Fridges more so as to their chemicals.

I do have concerns about photovoltaic cells as to their recyclability and the composite materials that make up wind turbine blades - I think the jury is still out on those and they are already piling up in landfills.

 

[OldSolduer]

True, but it may be a bit overstated by some. Ford says 3-10days powering the average house. That sounds pretty “brochure-y”…the electron math for that is dodgey. Maybe a day tops? Two?

Trial it in a Manitoba winter and we will see.

 

[YZT580]

In some markets, it's actually cheaper to install solar at scale, then keep running existing fossil fuel plants (most notably coal). Keep in mind the marginal cost of solar is low. No fuel cost. Very little maintenance costs. This is very different for most other forms of energy. That is why there are headlines like this:

Chart: 85% of new electricity built in 2023 came from renewables

A whopping 473 gigawatts of clean energy capacity was installed last year, yet another indicator of the rapid rise of solar and wind power.

www.canarymedia.com

Solar Accounted for More Than Half of New U.S. Power Last Year

e360.yale.edu

Solar has 10x'd over the last 10 years. And looks set to repeat that again over the next 10-15 years. This may or may not be relevant to the power sector in Canada. But Canada is rather irrelevant to global trends.



Do you worry this much about the recyclability of your fridge, stove or dishwasher? Solar panels and battery packs are appliances. And as long as they have material in them that is valuable, they will be recycled.

Solar has only been popular because governments have shied away from the more practical alternatives: nuclear and gas. With people like Biden, Trudeau and Shultz leading their respective nations and the restrictions imposed by them on any other form of energy is there any wonder that solar has dominated. Try this: remove the incentives and allow solar to compete on its own with the alternatives.

 

[Good2Golf]

If they work in India and Australia, the ‘Peg should be no problem.