Cost of housing in Canada

[Colin Parkinson]

What's your source on that? Reports I see are of a strong start to the year, and reported data supports. Is it particular classes that are down despite aggregate increases?

As of the end of Jan 24 I see year over year month, 3-month, and 12 month all up 13+%.

Significant downturns in car sales in the US, particularly high end trucks and EV's. The trucks, because they priced themselves out of the market. EV's because the incentives are going away and justifiable concerns about resale values. If the value of a 12 year old EV plummets, than that will affect the resale price from the first to second owner, as the second owner is going to get a much lower price when they sell to the third buyer.

 

[Kirkhill]

And I didn't say you did. I said that boomers and early x's (and adding now- a large swathe of millenials) that got into the housing market pre run up (the majority of home owners) have significant equity built up, and as such can approach current housing prices very differently than the proverbial first time home buyer making average salary. They can also choose to not approach current housing prices at all and be happy paying down mortgages on homes they bought at 2/3's, 1/2, or 1/3 of their current price.

This is about understanding the now, and it's potential impact on the future- not assigning blame for how we got here.

We all live in the world in which we find ourselves.

 

[mariomike]

From the style of the Scarborough house I would guess that it was built in the late 60s early 70s.

It is described as "mid-century".

Detached home prices in every neighborhood in Scarborough are less than the city average.

For good reason, in my opinion.

Houses in Scarborough are $3 million cheaper than the most expensive neighborhoods.

Incidentally, if in the mood for a log cabin, here is one - in Brampton.

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/26618569/36-hector-crt-brampton-central-park

 

[Kirkhill]

It is described as "mid-century".

Detached home prices in every neighborhood in Scarborough are less than the city average.

For good reason, in my opinion.

Houses in Scarborough are $3 million cheaper than the most expensive neighborhoods.

Incidentally, if in the mood for a log cabin, here is one - in Brampton.

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/26618569/36-hector-crt-brampton-central-park

Re the log cabin.

A family friend, whose husband was ex-Staff Sergeant in the British Army and who scored a Park Warden / Grounds Keeper "grace and favour" house on the grounds of a park up in NW GTA. IIRC the park was north of Steeles, and in the general vicinity of Black Creek Pioneer Village and an A.Y. Jackson / Group of Seven Gallery. No neighbours and nothing but manicured grass for miles.

I'd be curious to know the fate of that house.

 

[Eaglelord17]

While is true, the wealth inequality divide created by the housing crisis is not the same one as with the billionaires, in fact the proportions are almost flipped- which is what makes it such a fractious issue. The "housing haves" are not the "rich" they're the average Canadian that got into the market pre-run up - which is currently a majority.

There's a wide range there- millenials that got in just before the boom, boomers and older X's that bought/built for dimes or nickels on the current dollar through the 80's, 90's, and early 00's. In many cases families with both working semi-cooperatively. The common thread is that the "average adult canadian" is facing these prices not as first time home buyers- but instead with large amounts of equity. And with falling fertility rates that equity is going to get less diluted through intergenerational wealth transfer- boomers with million dollar estates and 4 grandchildren instead of 15.

It's not fair- but part of the reason the bubble hasn't already burst.

The equity might get less diluted due to inheritance, however a lot of boomers have Helocs and equivalent lines of credit they are living off of due to the increase in the value of the home. This is allowing many to live the high life in their golden years or to survive if they failed to properly plan their retirements.

Many families will have to sell the homes when they pass to pay off the debt which in effect is diluting the value of the properties.

Its one of the unspoken things about this housing crisis, there is lots of people using the equity from their homes in all sorts of other investments/expenditures. Debt to finance debt.

I know my bank sent me a letter stating my heloc is now only 65% of value max instead of 70% which tells me they expect house prices to go down.

 

[mariomike]

Re the log cabin.

A family friend, whose husband was ex-Staff Sergeant in the British Army and who scored a Park Warden / Grounds Keeper "grace and favour" house on the grounds of a park up in NW GTA. IIRC the park was north of Steeles, and in the general vicinity of Black Creek Pioneer Village and an A.Y. Jackson / Group of Seven Gallery. No neighbours and nothing but manicured grass for miles.

I'd be curious to know the fate of that house.

Me too. I've read stories about budget conscious individuals with good references and an interest in history being live-in "keepers" of historic places, including ships.

Sort of like going back in time.

 

[mariomike]

How much do you need to earn to buy a home in Canada?

Income required:

Vancouver $230,350

Toronto $214,100

Victoria $169,300

Hamilton $167,100

Ottawa $129,320

Calgary $118,300

Halifax $111,600

Montreal $109,400

Edmonton $83,220

Winnipeg $77,770

St. John's $74,750

Regina $71,440

Fredericton $67,740

 

[CBH99]

A few days ago we had touched on the issue of car sales as a way to measure whether people had money to spend or not.



Just found this:

Posthaste: Canadians hit the brakes on car ownership, say it's too expensive

More people are walking back plans to buy or lease a vehicle this year because of high inflation and interest rate, a survey says. Read on.

financialpost.com

 

[YZT580]

A few days ago we had touched on the issue of car sales as a way to measure whether people had money to spend or not.



Just found this:

Posthaste: Canadians hit the brakes on car ownership, say it's too expensive

More people are walking back plans to buy or lease a vehicle this year because of high inflation and interest rate, a survey says. Read on.

financialpost.com

good find. And if ICE vehicles are suffering from lack of sales, the EV's are going to get hit even worse. A lot of Canadians depend upon the auto industry for their living. If people are stretched to the max. for housing, not buying cars because the housing is too costly, won't be taking holidays because they don't have a reliable reliant automobile to get them there and can't afford the time off anyway, we are in for a world of hurt cause no one is untouched

 

[RangerRay]

So much for the carbon tax encouraging us to by more fuel efficient vehicles. Now we can’t even afford to replace our old cars.

 

[mariomike]

Regarding the cost of housing.

This one was built in 1921.

Been in the same family since 1948.

Original mortgage in 1948 was $3,473.63. Monthly payment was $8.35 and interest rate was five per cent. The house was insured for a replacement value of $3,600.

Now listed for $799,000

Check out this listing

111 DONLANDS AVE, Toronto, Ontario M4J3P3

www.realtor.ca

 

[IKnowNothing]

A few days ago we had touched on the issue of car sales as a way to measure whether people had money to spend or not.



Just found this:

Posthaste: Canadians hit the brakes on car ownership, say it's too expensive

More people are walking back plans to buy or lease a vehicle this year because of high inflation and interest rate, a survey says. Read on.

financialpost.com

Despite those changes in sentiment from a sampled group- overall new car sales are up.
Which again ties back to the reality that a lot- if not most- of the population is in ok shape or better.

 

[IKnowNothing]

The equity might get less diluted due to inheritance, however a lot of boomers have Helocs and equivalent lines of credit they are living off of due to the increase in the value of the home. This is allowing many to live the high life in their golden years or to survive if they failed to properly plan their retirements.

There are some yes. But how many is a lot? Especially relative to those purchasing second homes, or gifting downpayments, co-signing, or otherwise supporting children?

Also, keep in mind that we're not just talking about retired boomers. A 50 year old Gen x that bought in 2000 at 26 is/should/could be quickly approaching being mortgage free on a home that they bought for 1/4 - 1/3 of it's current market value.

 

[CBH99]

Despite those changes in sentiment from a sampled group- overall new car sales are up.
Which again ties back to the reality that a lot- if not most- of the population is in ok shape or better.

I get what you're saying in this post and the following post of yours, and I agree we need to objectively view the numbers based on objective & verifiable metrics to get a real sense of how people are doing...

But I can speak for myself & quite a few of my acquaintances when I say none of us are doing well, and none of us would remotely think of ourselves as doing 'better than average' - everybody I know is effectively broke, or has significantly less spending power than they did even 3 years ago.



Consistently I can't help but think Canada is a great example of what not to do when it comes to the nitty gritty details of both our political system & our economic choices.

There is no reason why, in a democracy, a government that is consistently disliked by a vast majority of the citizenry should still be in power, and scheming behind the scenes on how they can manipulate the system to stay in power despite knowing how disliked they are...

And there is no reason why, with our vast natural resources & some truly creative potential, we should be overtaken by Mexico as the United States' biggest trading partner...

 

[Remius]

Regarding the cost of housing.

This one was built in 1921.

Been in the same family since 1948.

Original mortgage in 1948 was $3,473.63. Monthly payment was $8.35 and interest rate was five per cent. The house was insured for a replacement value of $3,600.

Now listed for $799,000

Check out this listing

111 DONLANDS AVE, Toronto, Ontario M4J3P3

www.realtor.ca

Which is scary considering that if you take that amount in 1948 and put it in most inflation calculators you get no where near what the current value is…

 

[CBH99]

So much for the carbon tax encouraging us to by more fuel efficient vehicles. Now we can’t even afford to replace our old cars.

It's all part of the plan...

Who needs a car when everything will be within 15 minutes walking distance?

 

[Kirkhill]

Which is scary considering that if you take that amount in 1948 and put it in most inflation calculators you get no where near what the current value is…

Donald Trump has famously been found guilty of inflating the value of the property that he owned to assist him in securing more loans for business purposes. Those businesses are international and his banks are international. His German bank, for example, takes into account his American holdings when considering loans on Scottish golf courses.

We, Canada, have been encouraging people with the same requirements as Trump to take up residence in Canada since at least the 1990s. A strong bank account and a willingness to take up residence and establish a business, gains you a Canadian passport, access to Canadian banks and courts and an ability to travel internationally on that Canadian passport to make deals.

Those people have funds they want to shelter, and real estate is one way to do that, and it serves their purposes to drive valuations higher when applying for loans.

Those factors, in my opinion, weigh much more heavily than internal growth and domestic inflation.

 

[Eaglelord17]

There are some yes. But how many is a lot? Especially relative to those purchasing second homes, or gifting downpayments, co-signing, or otherwise supporting children?

Also, keep in mind that we're not just talking about retired boomers. A 50 year old Gen x that bought in 2000 at 26 is/should/could be quickly approaching being mortgage free on a home that they bought for 1/4 - 1/3 of it's current market value.

60-69 year olds who still had mortgage averaged 256k on that with a total debt average of 436k.

70+ year olds, 11% still carry a mortgage and that mortgage balance averaged 217k. 15% of 70+ carry a Heloc owing a average of 124k.

Thats a decent proportion of boomers. Not to mention it’s about a 75% home ownership rate for those age groups so 25% don’t have a home and likely aren’t in a position to be offering much. So out of that 75% only about 66% have a paid off home, and only about 60% have no debt tied into that.

Sometimes that debt is them supporting children, that still doesn’t mean that their estate doesn’t have to cover it later on.

Personally I have benefited from this housing price increase, my home has likely doubled if not close to tripled in value since I bought. That doesn’t mean I don’t want housing prices to go down to what they were before and be affordable for people to live. I am willing to sacrifice my potential ‘gains’ for everyones benefits.

These higher prices only benefit a few in the short term, they harm everyone long term with the only winners being the banks and realtors.

 

[CountDC]

A few days ago we had touched on the issue of car sales as a way to measure whether people had money to spend or not.



Just found this:

Posthaste: Canadians hit the brakes on car ownership, say it's too expensive

More people are walking back plans to buy or lease a vehicle this year because of high inflation and interest rate, a survey says. Read on.

financialpost.com

We opted not to buy and instead rent a few times a year. Rest of time is walking or public transit. Insurance alone would be more than the rentals. Add the actual veh payments along with maintenance on and we are absolutely saving a lot.

 

[CountDC]

Personally I have benefited from this housing price increase, my home has likely doubled if not close to tripled in value since I bought. That doesn’t mean I don’t want housing prices to go down to what they were before and be affordable for people to live. I am willing to sacrifice my potential ‘gains’ for everyones benefits.

These higher prices only benefit a few in the short term, they harm everyone long term with the only winners being the banks and realtors.

This - so many forget that along with their house going up so is everyone's else. At least until the try to sell to upgrade to a new place they liked and realize it is now out of their range.