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Collapse of the Assad Regime

The IDF is taking advantage of the chaos to minimize the threat posed by an new Syrian regime



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The IDF is taking advantage of the chaos to minimize the threat posed by an new Syrian regime



[edited to add additional link]

Well Done Reaction GIF
 
The IDF is taking advantage of the chaos to minimize the threat posed by an new Syrian regime



[edited to add additional link]
Naval assets too:


This is a textbook example of what the US should've done when it left Afghanistan.
 
Turkish-backed fighters attack Kurds in Syria

Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) fighters are advancing on the Kurdish-majority city of Kobane in northern Syria, according to reports.

Kurdish authorities reported several violent clashes over the last 24 hours between Kurdish forces and SNA fighters, who are pushing north-east towards Kobane after seizing the town of Manbij on Monday.

They said shelling and machine gun fire could be heard near the Tishreen Dam on the Euphrates River, which generates energy and provides drinking water for the region.

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan vowed on Tuesday never to allow Syria to be divided again, which could be seen as a threat towards the Kurdish-led autonomous Rojava region in the north east of the country.

Gideon Sa’ar, the Israeli foreign minister, on Tuesday said that attacks on Kurds “must stop”.

“There must be a commitment and actions by the international community to protect the Kurds, who fought bravely against ISIS,” he added.

Kobane was the site of a major battle between Isis and Kurdish fighters from 2014 to 2015, when some 70 per cent of the city was destroyed before jihadist fighters were eventually driven out with the help of US and coalition air strikes.

The battle of Kobane was seen as a key turning point in the struggle against Isis.

Rojava is also known as the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria and makes up about one third of Syria’s territory.

Turkey strikes Kurdish targets in Syria​

Turkey’s intelligence agency has destroyed 12 trucks loaded with missiles and heavy weapons, two tanks and ammunition stores being transported by the Kurdish YPG militia in northeast Syria, a Turkish security source said on Tuesday.

The source said that the military equipment had been left behind by the armed forces of ousted President Bashar al-Assad when they abandoned the area of Qamishli in northeast Syria.

Turkish-backed forces ‘advancing on Kurdish city’​

Turkish-backed fighters are advancing on the Kurdish-majority city of Kobane in northern Syria, according to reports.

Footage purporting to show airstrikes on Kurdish positions near the city have circulated on social media.

It comes one day after Turkish-backed fighters reportedly captured the town of Manbij from Kurdish-led forces.

Kobane was the site of a major battle between Isis and Kurdish fighters from 2014 to 2015, when some 70 per cent of the city was destroyed before jihadist fighters were eventually driven out.

It was seen as a key turning point in the battle against Isis.

Turkey ‘will never let Syria be divided again’​

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has vowed never to allow Syria to be “divided” again, and pledged to act against anyone compromising its territory.

“From now on, we cannot allow Syria to be divided again... Any attack on the freedom of the Syrian people, the stability of the new administration, and the integrity of its lands will find us standing against it,” he said.

Turkey earlier criticised Israel after its forces entered a UN-patrolled buffer zone on the Golan Heights on Sunday.

“In this sensitive period, when the possibility of achieving the peace and stability that the Syrian people have desired for many years has emerged, Israel is once again displaying its occupying mentality,” its foreign ministry said in a statement.


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So Turkey is as adamantly anti-Kurdish as ever. But Israel seems to have a soft spot for the Kurds. Or is it just that the Kurds and the Turks were useful in keeping Assad engaged and now with Assad taken off the board the Kurds would be useful in keeping Erdogan tied down? And when "Syrians" stream back over the border from Turkey to Aleppo how many of them are Kurds?

Dispatch: Syrians flood across border from Turkey​


A few hundred Syrian migrants gathered at the Turkey-Syria border as the dawn rays broke through the clouds on Tuesday morning, waiting to return home for the first time in years.

Soldiers waved them into a long line for processing by the Turkish authorities. Some carried cardboard boxes and others lugged empty compost sacks filled to the brim.

Every container possible was full with a colourful array of belongings – rugs, clothes, roller skates, electric stoves. “It’s over! We will never come back here to Turkey,” said Zayliha Sadiq, 51, who was leaving with her husband and their three children at the Cilvegozu checkpoint in far southwest Turkey flanked by hilly terrain along the Mediterranean coast.

On the other side is Aleppo, once the largest city in Syria, just 30 miles further down the road.

 
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Here is the Middle East and the Caucasus, with Ukraine, in 1914. As we seem to be heading back to that era now is the opportunity for you to get your Sykes-Picot on and start creating lasting borders and governments....

Stable governments in the Region:

Cyprus
Lebanon
Syria
Iraq
Iran
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Chechnya
Ukraine
Russia
Moldova
Turkey

There's a plum pudding for the right answer.
 
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So Turkey is as adamantly anti-Kurdish as ever. But Israel seems to have a soft spot for the Kurds. Or is it just that the Kurds and the Turks were useful in keeping Assad engaged and now with Assad taken off the board the Kurds would be useful in keeping Erdogan tied down? And when "Syrians" stream back over the border from Turkey to Aleppo how many of them are Kurds?
The Kurds are useful to the Israeli's, and they (Israeli's) generally have a soft sport for folks displaced with no actual home.

I do believe Erdo's comments where more facing the US, as with the announcement I posted here previously that we are going to go look for Austin Tice, that means that at least an SOTF will be deployed, and more likely a Bde or two of conventional troops as well to hold areas for the SOTF to work from.

If any of the Syrian neighbors where significantly stable, one might wonder if they would want to expand their borders, at least with a buffer zone.
I doubt Israel will move back to the A line, as with B occupied, why not just keep it.

I could see Jordan wanting some land as a "security zone", but any area they would expand into, simply makes their border with Iraq more awkward unless its a slice from their north eastern tip running east.

Iraq has it's own problems as does Lebanon, and Turkey doesn't want the headaches with the Syrian north.
 
Self-determination<a href="Self-determination - Wikipedia"><span>[</span>1<span>]</span></a> refers to a people's right to form its own political entity, and internal self-determination is the right to representative government with full suffrage.<a href="Self-determination - Wikipedia"><span>[</span>2<span>]</span></a><a href="Self-determination - Wikipedia"><span>[</span>3<span>]</span></a>

Self-determination is a cardinal principle in modern international law, binding, as such, on the United Nations as an authoritative interpretation of the Charter's norms.<a href="Self-determination - Wikipedia"><span>[</span>4<span>]</span></a><a href="Self-determination - Wikipedia"><span>[</span>5<span>]</span></a> The principle does not state how the decision is to be made, nor what the outcome should be (whether independence, federation, protection, some form of autonomy or full assimilation),<a href="Self-determination - Wikipedia"><span>[</span>6<span>]</span></a> and the right of self-determination does not necessarily include a right to an independent state for every ethnic group within a former colonial territory. Further, no right to secession is recognized under international law.


In his speech to Congress, President Wilson declared fourteen points which he regarded as the only possible basis of an enduring peace:<a href="Fourteen Points - Wikipedia"><span>[</span>28<span>]</span></a>

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Wikisource has original text related to this article:
Fourteen Points Speech
I. Open covenants of peace, openly arrived at, after which there shall be no private international understandings of any kind but diplomacy shall proceed always frankly and in the public view.

II. Absolute freedom of navigation upon the seas, outside territorial waters, alike in peace and in war, except as the seas may be closed in whole or in part by international action for the enforcement of international covenants.

III. The removal, so far as possible, of all economic barriers and the establishment of an equality of trade conditions among all the nations consenting to the peace and associating themselves for its maintenance.

IV. Adequate guarantees given and taken that national armaments will be reduced to the lowest point consistent with domestic safety.

V. A free, open-minded, and absolutely impartial adjustment of all colonial claims, based upon a strict observance of the principle that in determining all such questions of sovereignty the interests of the populations concerned must have equal weight with the equitable government whose title is to be determined.

VI. The evacuation of all Russian territory and such a settlement of all questions affecting Russia as will secure the best and freest cooperation of the other nations of the world in obtaining for her an unhampered and unembarrassed opportunity for the independent determination of her own political development and national policy and assure her of a sincere welcome into the society of free nations under institutions of her own choosing; and, more than a welcome, assistance also of every kind that she may need and may herself desire. The treatment accorded Russia by her sister nations in the months to come will be the acid test of their good will, of their comprehension of her needs as distinguished from their own interests, and of their intelligent and unselfish sympathy.

VII. Belgium, the whole world will agree, must be evacuated and restored, without any attempt to limit the sovereignty which she enjoys in common with all other free nations. No other single act will serve as this will serve to restore confidence among the nations in the laws which they have themselves set and determined for the government of their relations with one another. Without this healing act the whole structure and validity of international law is forever impaired.

VIII. All French territory should be freed and the invaded portions restored, and the wrong done to France by Prussia in 1871 in the matter of Alsace-Lorraine, which has unsettled the peace of the world for nearly fifty years, should be righted, in order that peace may once more be made secure in the interest of all.

IX. A readjustment of the frontiers of Italy should be effected along clearly recognizable lines of nationality.

X. The people of Austria-Hungary, whose place among the nations we wish to see safeguarded and assured, should be accorded the freest opportunity to autonomous development.<a href="Fourteen Points - Wikipedia"><span>[</span>29<span>]</span></a>

XI. Romania, Serbia, and Montenegro should be evacuated; occupied territories restored; Serbia accorded free and secure access to the sea; and the relations of the several Balkan states to one another determined by friendly counsel along historically established lines of allegiance and nationality; and international guarantees of the political and economic independence and territorial integrity of the several Balkan states should be entered into.

XII. The Turkish portion of the present Ottoman Empire should be assured a secure sovereignty, but the other nationalities which are now under Ottoman rule should be assured an undoubted security of life and an absolutely unmolested opportunity of autonomous development, and the Dardanelles should be permanently opened as a free passage to the ships and commerce of all nations under international guarantees.

XIII. An independent Polish state should be erected which should include the territories inhabited by indisputably Polish populations, which should be assured a free and secure access to the sea, and whose political and economic independence and territorial integrity should be guaranteed by international covenant.

XIV. A general association of nations must be formed under specific covenants for the purpose of affording mutual guarantees of political independence and territorial integrity to great and small states alike.

...

And the best of British to you...
 
And the best of British to you...

Perfidious Albion enters the chat ;)

"Perfidious Albion" is a pejorative phrase used within the context of international relations diplomacy to refer to acts of diplomatic slights, duplicity, treachery and hence infidelity (with respect to perceived promises made to or alliances formed with other nation states) by monarchs or governments of the United Kingdom (or Great Britain prior to 1801, or England prior to 1707) in their pursuit of self-interest. Perfidious means not keeping one's faith or word (from the Latin word perfidia); Albion is an ancient and now poetic name for Great Britain.

 
Perfidious Albion enters the chat ;)

"Perfidious Albion" is a pejorative phrase used within the context of international relations diplomacy to refer to acts of diplomatic slights, duplicity, treachery and hence infidelity (with respect to perceived promises made to or alliances formed with other nation states) by monarchs or governments of the United Kingdom (or Great Britain prior to 1801, or England prior to 1707) in their pursuit of self-interest. Perfidious means not keeping one's faith or word (from the Latin word perfidia); Albion is an ancient and now poetic name for Great Britain.


Yeah but its only the French.
 

December 10, 2024, 5:30pm ET

Russia's force posture around Syria continues to reflect the Kremlin's current cautious and indecisive response to the fall of Bashar al Assad's regime.
Sentinel-2 satellite imagery from December 10 shows that Russian ships have still not returned to Syria's Port of Tartus and that the Russian Mediterranean Sea Flotilla is still in a holding pattern about eight to 15km away from Tartus.[1] Open-source analyst MT Anderson identified four Russian ships within this radius as of December 10—the Admiral Golovko Gorshkov-class frigate, the Admiral Grigorovich Grigorovich-class frigate, the Novorossiysk Improved Kilo-class submarine, and the Vyazma Kaliningradneft-class oiler.[2] Satellite imagery from December 9 indicated that the Admiral Grigorovich, Novorossiysk, and Vyazma were in the same holding pattern as they are as of December 10.[3] Other open-source analysts noted that the Baltic Fleet's Alexander Shabalin Project 775 large landing ship exited the Baltic Sea maritime zone on December 10, potentially to facilitate the removal of some Russian military assets from Tartus to the Mediterranean (potentially Tobruk, Libya).[4] A Russian milblogger claimed that as of the end of the day on December 9 "the status of Hmeimim (Air Base) and Tartus is up in the air," and Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov emphasized that it is "difficult to predict" what will happen in Syria but that Russia will continue a dialogue with all countries that share interests with Russia.[5] Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on December 10 that Russian forces are still disassembling equipment and weapons and removing troops from Hmeimim in An-124 and Il-76 military transport aircraft and are "dismantling" equipment at Tartus under the supervision of recently-deployed Russian Spetsnaz.[6] Maxar satellite imagery from December 10 shows that Russian aircraft, helicopters, and associated military equipment remain in place at the Hmeimim Air Base (see embedded imagery below). The continued lack of a coherent Russian response, both in terms of military posture and rhetorical overtures, suggests that the Kremlin is still waiting to formulate a path forward in Syria as it observes the situation on the ground. The Kremlin is very likely hesitant to completely evacuate all military assets from Syria in the event that it can establish a relationship with Syrian opposition forces and the transitional government and continue to ensure the security of its basing and personnel in Syria.[7]
 
I see some cheerleading on this in the news while on social media there are videos of injured Syrian soldiers getting murdered in their hospital beds. This is going to be a shit show.
 
I see some cheerleading on this in the news while on social media there are videos of injured Syrian soldiers getting murdered in their hospital beds. This is going to be a shit show.

Assad was a bastard, but the replacements won't be any better, just in different form. Syria will be another Afghanistan, that's what Islamic extremism does.
 
It's amazing how much Syrian naval vessels in the Mediterranean look like Russian naval vessels in the Black Sea...
Likely did them a long term favour. Eventually they get newer patrol boats, without missiles that they can use as a Coast Guard.
 
Assad was a bastard, but the replacements won't be any better, just in different form. Syria will be another Afghanistan, that's what Islamic extremism does.
What Syria, Afghanistan, Ukraine, Yugoslavia, the old Belgian Congo, Lebanon, Iraq, Turkey, old Austro-Hungarian Empire, etc, etc, etc, all tell us, is that outside of a mere handful of places around the world, is that countries that have a religious minorities (within Islam or a mix of Islam/Christianity/Hinduism/Jewish) or ethnic/linguistic minorities simply don't work.
 
Pretty horrible atrocities happening in Syria. I don't think the new landlords will be an improvement.
Well, this may be an over simplification, but if the Syrian Rebels were the enemy of our enemy, therefor our friends, what happens now that the common enemy is gone?
 
Well, this may be an over simplification, but if the Syrian Rebels were the enemy of our enemy, therefor our friends, what happens now that the common enemy is gone?
Drastic Oversimplification - as Syrian Rebels consists of around 11 different factions.
We have been helping A side, but there are a lot of pieces on the chessboard.
 
... So Turkey is as adamantly anti-Kurdish as ever. But Israel seems to have a soft spot for the Kurds. Or is it just that the Kurds and the Turks were useful in keeping Assad engaged and now with Assad taken off the board the Kurds would be useful in keeping Erdogan tied down? And when "Syrians" stream back over the border from Turkey to Aleppo how many of them are Kurds? ...
As others have mentioned, there's Kurds, and there's Kurds.

TUR seems to love those "good" Kurds that don't like the "bad" Kurds that TUR considers terrorists (ya know, those nasty YPG guys - who some Canadians were happy to help - fighting ISIS , with some Brits who helped ending up facing terrorism charges).

Been in the general neighbourhood of this kind of situation not all that long ago, even if not on this specific street - wonder how much of this thread will be seen again these days: "October 2019: Turkey into Syria to Deal With Kurds"
 
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