Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

[Colin Parkinson]

Meanwhile the 800lb gorilla in the room is India

 

[Kirkhill]

Good analysis, Enfield.  While the Chinese are not interested in going to war with anyone – they are confident they can achieve their goals without armed conflict – they are not terrified of the prospect, unlike so many in the West.

My sense, coloured as it is by contact with too many Chinese academics and business people and too few military people, is that the Chinese are very keen to keep building.  They recognize that they have a long, long way to go.....

The last thing the Chinese want or need is war but they are proudly nationalistic and mistakes can happen.

That's more direct contact than I have had but I remain constantly troubled by an anecdote from one of my seagoing buddies in Seattle.  He was in China to repair a component on a western vessel.  Consequently he was down at the dockyards where the tourists don't go.  After a long a busy day he headed for a bar for a couple of beers only to discover it was Karaoke bar full of PLN types in uniform.  All these sailors took their turn at the mike singing along to the popular tunes.  Unfortunately there were no rockers, no babes and no skin on the screen behind - there were old Maoist movies of Banners flying and firm young (uniformed) bodies straining into the future.  And the whole crowd was singing along.

My buddy left - claiming he had a sense of how a Jew in a bar full of Nazis singing the Horst Wesel might have felt.

Only an anecdote - but as you say Edward accidents can happen - and it was the military that got Japan into such hot water in the 1940s.

 

[CougarKing]

That's more direct contact than I have had but I remain constantly troubled by an anecdote from one of my seagoing buddies in Seattle.  He was in China to repair a component on a western vessel.  Consequently he was down at the dockyards where the tourists don't go.  After a long a busy day he headed for a bar for a couple of beers only to discover it was Karaoke bar full of PLN types in uniform.  All these sailors took their turn at the mike singing along to the popular tunes.  Unfortunately there were no rockers, no babes and no skin on the screen behind - there were old Maoist movies of Banners flying and firm young (uniformed) bodies straining into the future.  And the whole crowd was singing along.

My buddy left - claiming he had a sense of how a Jew in a bar full of Nazis singing the Horst Wesel might have felt.

Only an anecdote - but as you say Edward accidents can happen - and it was the military that got Japan into such hot water in the 1940s.

Do you mind if I ask which Chinese port that was that your friend went to? The large number of PLAN officers there suggests it was probably Guangzhou, Dalian or Shanghai or Qingdao. When I took a study abroad program to study Mandarin in Beijing, the only military types I saw were individual PLA officers in uniform, aside from People's Armed Police Officers in their distinct green uniforms, which were lighter than the PLA's green work/dress uniforms; the only other PLA stuff I saw were at the People's Military Museum at Jian Guo Men Da Jie/Road to the west of Tiananmen Square.

 

[Kirkhill]

I'm sorry to break up this exploration of the China vs. Russia scenario, which is pretty much what Tom Clancy wrote about in his "The Bear and the Dragon" novel, but...

...aren't both mainland China and Russia both members of the Shanghai Six or the Shanghai Cooperative Organization- the Alliance formed between China and a number of Soviet satelites for common security interests- such as counterterrorism?

China has purchased a great deal of Russian arms over the past two decades, including the Sorenemmy class Destroyers as well as around 100-200 Su-27s, not to mention a number of Kilo Class submarines. I doubt the Chinese would want to alienate one of their most willing equipment vendors, even if the Germans used Czech Tank designs such as the Skoda Panzer Tank acquired during the occupation of Czechslovakia in the 1938/Sudentenland example.

And Russia was training German Paratroops and Tankers in the 1930s before the Molotov-Ribbentrop treaty of August 1939 and Operation Barbarossa of June 1941.  The Russians and the Chinese were shooting at each other along the Amur at the same time as they were both opposing the US in the UN.  The Finns found themselves allied with the west to fight the Russians in 1940 then with the Germans to fight the Russians in 1941.  And we shall ignore the conniptions that poor old Poland went through - having no idea who her friends and enemies were from one day to the next.  Treaties don't mean a lot.

As to the exact port I can't honestly remember - I am pretty sure it wasn't Shanghai or the name would have clicked with me.  This happened in the last two years and the tale was relayed to me last year.

 

[rmacqueen]

When looking at any scenario that involves Asia it has to be kept in mind that the two largest holders of American debt are China and India.  This gives them enormous power over any US initiatives as a sudden dumping of US dollars would cripple the economy and could easily plunge the US into a recession, seriously hampering any military action.  Would any US president risk economic ruin to counter Chinese aggression in Asia, especially if it was not a direct threat to American interests?

The other thing to keep in mind when analysing possible scenarios in Asia is the Chinese ideology of self-sacrifice for the greater good.  While we in the west don't accept the idea of winning at all costs, Chinese history is full of stories of sacrifice to reach strategic goals.  China may currently be able to purchase all that it needs but that does not equate to security.  If the leaders in China feel that they need secure resources in "defence" of their country they, IMHO, would not hesitate to risk annihilation in order to achieve it.  Couple that with their traditional disdain of western resolve and it makes for a dangerous mix.

 

[Exarecr]

Wow, interesting stuff, but the prospect of a Indo-Chinese alliance must give the Russians nightmares. All those billions of people out of resources and no direction to go except of course,any direction they damn well please.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

India and China have already clashed and have a border dispute on the low boil, they will trade and talk, but they don't trust each other at all.

 

[Kirkhill]

Do you mind if I ask which Chinese port that was that your friend went to? The large number of PLAN officers there suggests it was probably Guangzhou, Dalian or Shanghai or Qingdao. When I took a study abroad program to study Mandarin in Beijing, the only military types I saw were individual PLA officers in uniform, aside from People's Armed Police Officers in their distinct green uniforms, which were lighter than the PLA's green work/dress uniforms; the only other PLA stuff I saw were at the People's Military Museum at Jian Guo Men Da Jie/Road to the west of Tiananmen Square.

Just got off the phone to "buddy".  He was in Nantong - North Shore of the Yangtze estuary between Shanghai and Nanjing.  Bar crowd was 25 to 45.  Mixture of PLAN uniforms and civvies, men and women.  Many movies of Armed Forces Day parades - goose-steps and missile launcher.  The whole crowd singing along like "Another Saturday Night....."

Traffic in the streets consisted of bicycles, home-made conveyances powered by 2-Stroke Briggs and Stratton knock-offs,  cabs with ratty looking tires and the occasional Mercedes.

 

[a_majoor]

More on China as a potential adversary. Since nations have permanent interests rather than friends, China, like all nations maintains relationships with other nations insofar as that relationship is in her (China's) interest. This explains the seeming contradiction of China's acting in concert with Russia; they are working against a common threat (the United States and the West), even though they otherwise are in competition for the same resource base, territory etc.

http://www.jerrypournelle.com/view/view453.html#China

Nationalists, Communists, and Chinese

I have said for years, both here and in various conferences and at speeches, that if the Chinese decide to seize Formosa (Taiwan, Taipei, the former Republic of China, whatever name you care to give it), the first move will be the detonation of a sub-megaton nuclear device about 100 miles above the interior of China.

This will effectively remove all US space assets; some temporarily, some permanently. Since we have no sortie capabilities for replacing them, the US Navy will be effectively blind and unable to operate in the Taiwan Straits and Yellow Sea. Taiwan will fall.

That may not be the most probable scenario. My old mentor, associate, and partner, Stefan Possony, was once chosen by the Republic of China to argue their case before the World Court; he did well. He was, like me, inclined to favor the Chinese Nationalists over the Communists back in the days when those designations were current and didn't sound quaint. He once told me this:

    "It will be years from now, but one day we and the Nationalists will be standing on one side of a table and the Communists on the other. The Communists will be yelling at both us and the Nationalists. Then we will look away. When we look back, the Communists and the Nationalists will be on the other side of the table and both will be yelling at us, and we will not understand what happened."

Possony was one of the most astute analysts of historic trends who has ever lived. He was one of the architects of the eventually successful Containment strategy (See The Protracted Conflict) and was of course the principal co-author of The Strategy of Technology (The chapter on Surprise was very much his); his views have always been worth taking seriously.

Whatever the future, we have a lot at stake in the Far East.

If you have any interest in that subject, go read:

http://www.washtimes.com/op-ed/20070211-102909-6598r.htm

  This was recommended to me by both a high tech entrepreneur and a serving naval officer. My entrepreneur friend said

    In terms of threats to our security we finally have an enemy we can both agree on - The Red Chinese Army. I was in NY City last week and some hedge fund managers were talking about the unraveling of the Chinese economy. It drives them crazy when people say the Chinese are capitalists these days. They say there is no capitalism in China. Only state owned industries and foreign companies willing to toe the Red Army line do business in that country.

This subject is important.

 

[Bigmac]

China continues to deprive USA of its military predominance

21.02.2007 Source:  URL: http://english.pravda.ru/world/asia/87639-china_missiles-0

It is easy to explain the fact that leading centers studying international relations are usually based in most developed Western countries. The latter, as a rule, define modern tendencies in world politics. However, there is an exception from the rule – the Institute of International Research in Denmark. Denmark is a small European country, which can hardly be dubbed as a leading member of international relations. However, the Dutch institute regularly prepares high-quality research works for the international expert community. In February, the center published the results of the missile potential of China.

When it goes about the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, experts usually pay attention to technologies used for the production of lethal nuclear, chemical and biological weapon. However, any kind of weapons has to be delivered to the point of its destination. The global system of control for the non-proliferation of missile technologies is therefore extremely important in today’s world. The system was founded by the Group of Seven in 1987.

China is not listed as a member of this initiative. Beijing probably prefers not to burden itself with redundant international obligations. On the other hand, Western countries may try to follow this structure to expose China as a country that does not follow international standards.

China was not playing an important role on the market of ready-made missiles and missile technologies before the end of the Cold War. The situation changed in the beginning of the 1990s. The Chinese economy took a turn for the market development. The leaders of the Chinese defense complex were allowed to make earnings on their own without state’s participation and control. To crown it all, Beijing was becoming more active in terms of foreign policies.

China struck its first important deals in the missile industry with Saudi Arabia in 1988 and with Pakistan in 1992. It is worthy of note that the two contracts were signed with USA’s staunch allies. However, the USA did not rejoice over the growing military potential of its friends. Quite on the contrary, the USA lost its monopoly on many technologies which guaranteed the military predominance of the United States.

The Chinese administration prefers to avoid international scandals. Therefore, China currently sells spare parts, equipment for technical servicing, missile fuel technologies and provides technical support. China’s clients in this industry can be divided into three groups: members of the ‘axis of evil’ (Iran and North Korea for instance), USA’s allies that can bring unpleasant surprises for the superpower in the future (Saudi Arabia, Pakistan) and Latin American countries (Argentine and Brazil).

Chinese officials take certain efforts to join the global system for control of non-proliferation of missiles and missile technologies. If China becomes a member of the organization, the country will be able to access leading technologies of the West.

Politcom

      China is certainly becoming the next great superpower on the global map. They are business savvy and training on all the latest technologies out there. The Chinese are smart, quiet about their continuing achievements and most notably patient.

 

[Edward Campbell]

There is much Chinese internet chatter right now re: the forthcoming government meetings in March and the rather strange official silence which prevails in the face of ongoing Taiwanese ’provocations’.  People are wondering if, given the 2008 Olympics, this (spring 07) is the last window (until fall 08) for action.

The Chinese people I know are united, almost without exception, in the firm belief that Taiwan is a Chinese province and cannot be an independent, sovereign state.  “One country – two systems” is, I believe – based on my observations/conversations, a perfectly acceptable approach, for an overwhelming majority of Chinese, for Taiwan as well as for Hong Kong and, maybe, for Tibet too.

Many Chinese believe America is tied down in Iraq and the Islamic Crescent.  The people I have heard say that they are confident that America will not, because it cannot engage China militarily or economically to prevent unification.  Japan and South Korea are focused, almost entirely on North Korea.  Neither Hong Kong nor Singapore has anything to lose if Taiwan becomes a province, like Hong Kong.  Europe – with or without Russia - doesn’t matter.

 

[Bigmac]

27 November 2006
''Russia-China Security Cooperation''
Russia and China have joined together in a strategic partnership aimed at countering the U.S. and Western "monopoly in world affairs," as was made clear in a joint statement released by the Chinese and Russian presidents in July 2005. The long standing border disputes between the two countries were settled in agreements in 2005, and joint military exercises were carried out in the same year. Furthermore, Russia, in addition to its arms exports, has been increasing its oil and gas commitments to China. Clearly, the recent comprehensive improvement of bilateral relations between China and Russia is a remarkable development. What is the meaning of this military and security related cooperation, and is the Sino-Russian military liaison likely to expand? Should this rapprochement be considered as a structural shift of power with the goal of repelling Western influence from Central Asia and the adjacent areas?

Russian-Chinese Military Maneuvers

In August 2005, for the first time in 40 years, Russian and Chinese armed forces carried out joint military exercises. China took the lead in proposing the size, participating type of forces and content of the maneuvers. Allegedly, China also took care of most of the costs of the exercises. The formal objectives of the mission were to strengthen the capability of joint operations and the exchange of experience; to establish methods of organizing cooperation in the fight against international terrorism, separatism and extremism; and to enhance mutual combat readiness against newly developing threats. [See: "The Significance of Sino-Russian Military Exercises"]

http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report_id=588&language_id=1

    See link for a little more light reading on the relationship between Russia and China. China has now become Russia's big brother in world affairs. China is probably the most disturbed by the missile defense proposal but are using little brother Russia to do their dirty work.

 

[Kirkhill]

The other thing that military exercises do is show you how the other side works, and how well it works.

Would it be unusual for China to "fake" running at American strength (an amphibious assault against the US Navy and Air Force in Defence of Taiwan) while at the same time actually "reversing the field" by sending the PLA against a weak Russia, moving away from American strength?

If they were to make moves on Taiwan, necessitating mobilization and exercises during a period of high tension,  how difficult would it be to actually launch a land offensive against Russia?

Schwarzkopf did something of the sort in Gulf War 1 with the Marines.

 

[enfield]

Many Chinese believe America is tied down in Iraq and the Islamic Crescent.  The people I have heard say that they are confident that America will not, because it cannot engage China militarily or economically to prevent unification.  Japan and South Korea are focused, almost entirely on North Korea.  Neither Hong Kong nor Singapore has anything to lose if Taiwan becomes a province, like Hong Kong.  Europe – with or without Russia - doesn’t matter.

I find that perspective interesting.

First, the Chinese military remains weak in its expeditionary potential - invading Taiwan would be a bloody and risky affair, even without foreign interference.
Secondly, Japan and South Korea are neither economic nor military lightweights and US intervention is not necessarily required to make the event a bloody one. As far as I know, Japan more than equals China in high-tech Naval and Air power and combined with South Korea and Taiwan they represent a fairly serious military coalition.
Third: China is no position to pretend to be a military superpower and throw its weight around when it is completely dependent on imported resources, especially oil, and lacks the means to safeguard those supplies.
Finally - I'm curious why Chinese decision makers would think the US is too busy to intervene. Politically another war may be difficult to justify, but the capability stands - events in Iraq and Afghanistan barely concern them; the US Navy and Air Force could certainly handle a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The east coast of China certainly doesn't lack for targets.

Looking at those three points, I'm not sure the potential price of invasion would be worth the gain, and I think China is well aware of it. China is certainly a military power, but more of a defensive power, and her primary strength and greatest weapon is her economic weight and she definitely sees time as being on her side. 

To Kirkhill's question-
In an Siberian Invasion Scenario, with or without a feint at Taiwan, China has two weak areas: the long, open east coast that is home to its wealth, industry, and biggest assets, and its northern border with Russia that is difficult to patrol and occupy. In any war scenario, I think the West, including allies such as Japan, would avoid a ground war with the PLA - there's no need to play to a Chinese strength. The easiest and most obvious target is that long coast line - wide open to air and naval power, both of which are Western (ie, Japan and US) strengths and Chinese weaknesses. While the PLA attempts to invade and occupy Siberia (and good freakin' luck to them!) their coastal infrastructure, shipping, and industrial base will be whittled away.

In short, wherever China might make a move - east to Taiwan, north to Russia, south into Vietnam or India, or east into Central Asia, I think the American reaction will always be to concentrate on the east coast of China, use its strengths and capitalize on regional allies, and hammer the industrial and resource base rather than try to fight the PLA head on.

 

[Kirkhill]

To Kirkhill's question-
In an Siberian Invasion Scenario, with or without a feint at Taiwan, China has two weak areas: the long, open east coast that is home to its wealth, industry, and biggest assets, and its northern border with Russia that is difficult to patrol and occupy. In any war scenario, I think the West, including allies such as Japan, would avoid a ground war with the PLA - there's no need to play to a Chinese strength. The easiest and most obvious target is that long coast line - wide open to air and naval power, both of which are Western (ie, Japan and US) strengths and Chinese weaknesses. While the PLA attempts to invade and occupy Siberia (and good freakin' luck to them!) their coastal infrastructure, shipping, and industrial base will be whittled away.

I agree the East Coast is vulnerable.  I am just not sure that the West, and the US in particular would deem it necessary to expend effort on securing resources for Russia, France and Germany.  Especially seeing as how China is at least as capable of honouring a contract as the Russians. 

Also, with respect to the PLA occupying Siberia, I don't know that they need to do that either.  Lots of Chinese in China, cold and crowded.  Lots of Land and trees to burn in Siberia.  Let the PLA deal with the Russian Army - the people of China can take care of the rest themselves.  Use the same strategy the Americans used on Mexico in the 1830s and the Mexicans are using on the Americans today.  Unarmed infiltration by civilians.  All they have to do is move back the Russian border forces, because unlike the Americans, I am pretty sure that they WOULD fire on civilians.

 

[CougarKing]

south into Vietnam or India

Well the PLA already invaded Vietnam in the brief Feb. to March 1979 Sino-Vietnam War and suffered up to around 26,000 casualties while the Vietnamse suffered around 20,000. They occupied several cities north of Hanoi, including Lang Son and Cao Bang, but eventually withdrew after a month of occupation.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-vietnamese-war

China mainly invaded Vietnam in response to a united Vietnam's occupation of Cambodia in 1978, since the Hanoi govt. had decided to oust the Khmer Rouge govt. (China's ally) by invading and occupying the country. Back then, the Communist World was stil in a Beijing vs. Moscow schism with Cambodia as China's ally and Vietnam as the Soviet Union's ally (Soviet warships were known to dock and use Cam Ranh Bay not long after the last US forces left and after the fall of Saigon).  Hanoi grew increasingly distrustful of Beijing especially because of this worldwide Communist Schism, even if China did send around 320,000 anti-aircraft, engineering and logistics troops to Northern Vietnam to help in during the 1960s-70s Vietnam War against the Americans and her allies.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnam_War

My only point is that the PLA will think twice before invading their ex-ally again, especially with the increased number of Vietnamese divisions sent to Vietnam's northern border during the past twenty years to guard against another such invasion.

In short, wherever China might make a move - east to Taiwan, north to Russia, south into Vietnam or India, or east into Central Asia, I think the American reaction will always be to concentrate on the east coast of China, use its strengths and capitalize on regional allies, and hammer the industrial and resource base rather than try to fight the PLA head on.

As for the suggestion that PLAN will be a pushover for the US Navy or US Air Force intending to attack China's East Coast and industrial heartland, I doubt they will continue to be a pushover at the rate they are modernizing as their already large economy continues to grow. Kilo Class submarines and Su-27s  fighters are just the beginning. Within 20-30 years they may have carrier groups patrolling that coast. We must not allow ourselves or our American friends to be complacent and underestimate the Chinese when it comes to the naval front.

 

[Kirkhill]

As for the suggestion that PLAN will be a pushover for the US Navy or US Air Force intending to attack China's East Coast and industrial heartland, I doubt they will continue to be a pushover at the rate they are modernizing as their economy grows. Kilo Class submarines and Su-27s  fighters are just the beginning. Within 20-3o years they may have carrier groups patrolling that coast. We must not allow ourselves or our American friends to be complacent and underestimate the Chinese when it comes to the naval front.

Like the Dutchman from ING said - Couldn't have said it better myself.

I don't know if carriers will be the answer in 20-30 years or OHIO SSBN conversions launching long range 250 lb PGMS or it will still be airfields in Japan, Korea and Taiwan..... whatever it turns out to be, we need to keep ahold of the hammer (Edit: from the sea).

 

[enfield]

Also, with respect to the PLA occupying Siberia, I don't know that they need to do that either.  Lots of Chinese in China, cold and crowded.  Lots of Land and trees to burn in Siberia.  Let the PLA deal with the Russian Army - the people of China can take care of the rest themselves.  Use the same strategy the Americans used on Mexico in the 1830s and the Mexicans are using on the Americans today.  Unarmed infiltration by civilians.  All they have to do is move back the Russian border forces, because unlike the Americans, I am pretty sure that they WOULD fire on civilians.

Agreed - to some extent I believe this is already happening and in the long term there may be a cultural/demographic shift in that region as ethnic Chinese become a large minority or the majority in Eastern Russia.
However, I don't think invading Russia is ever a good idea - ever - for anyone.

Well the PLA already invaded Vietnam in the brief Feb. to March 1979 Sino-Vietnam War and suffered up to around 26,000 casualties while the Vietnamse suffered around 20,000. They occupied several cities north of Hanoi, including Lang Son and Cao Bang, but eventually withdrew after a month of occupation.

My only point is that the PLA will think twice before invading their ex-ally again, especially with the increased number of Vietnamese divisions sent to Vietnam's northern border during the past twenty years to guard against another such invasion.

I was using Vietnam as a single example (they've also fought India) - they could just as easily push into the entire SE Asia region. The PLA of 1979 is different from the PLA of 2007, and 26,000 casualties don't mean much to the Chinese military. Irony would be the US going to war to protect Vietnam....

As for the suggestion that PLAN will be a pushover for the US Navy or US Air Force intending to attack China's East Coast and industrial heartland, I doubt they will continue to be a pushover at the rate they are modernizing as their already large economy continues to grow. Kilo Class submarines and Su-27s  fighters are just the beginning. Within 20-30 years they may have carrier groups patrolling that coast. We must not allow ourselves or our American friends to be complacent and underestimate the Chinese when it comes to the naval front.

In 20-30 years anything could happen (in 2037 Canada might carrier have battlegroups!) - but in the next five to ten, the US has complete supremacy over the air and waters of the region. Combined with Japan (world's second highest defence budget) and Taiwan and South Korea, they have the eastern seaboard of China wrapped up tightly. A blockade on oil would strangle China - and grind that massive army to a halt - very quickly.

China is certainly strong enough to defend itself (in any element, against anyone) but lacks the ability to project its strength - it lacks a high-tech modern military, in many areas substituting quantity for quality, it lack the resources to support itself, and it is in a weak strategic position, with too many potential enemies around it. An aggresive move by the Chinese military would concentrate its high-value assets in vulnerable positions, whether at sea and on the beaches of Taiwan or on the Siberian steppe, and leave other areas garrisoned but second-rate equipment and troops and open to attack. 

 

[tingbudong]

In 20-30 years anything could happen (in 2037 Canada might carrier have battlegroups!)

I agree with this statement completely.  One often reads Chinese development indicators for a number of areas and usually they all predict a rise.  I am not privy to the data that these predictions are based upon, yet I find that many appear to make the assumption that the west is stagnant and is not developing.  Using a military example...In twenty years, China probably will have a carrier battlegroup, but they sure as hell are not going to have 10, nor will they have the 100 years experience of the US Navy in regards to carrier operations.  Personally, I believe oil is their key issue.  A confrontation with China would take place on their doorstep, with US and allied oil reserves safely positioned in the rear.  Pipelines from Central Asia could easily be hit, and sea lanes could easily be closed.  They would be living off their strategic reserves...which would be dedicated to military operations, leaving little for civilian purposes, thus creating some problems for their economy.  I've also believed that the CCP only hold legitimacy because its current ability to bring wealth and prosperity to the middle classes.  As soon as that class can't drive their VW's and their stocks start to go down, they are going to have some serious questions, and they won't be as easily muted as the farmers.  Some Chinese people expresses scary levels of nationalism, but if their pocket book begins to shrink....I don't even think that would save the CCP.

Furthermore, I believe that in a move against Taiwan, China would viewed by the world (with the exception of their two-bit dictator buddies) as the aggressor nation.  If they started utilizing nuclear weapons....all those years trying to build up their reputation, only to have it blasted back to 1960 levels over piece of rock and an inflated sense of nationalism. 

 

[MarkOttawa]

Chinese threats
http://www.damianpenny.com/archived/008977.html

Mark
Ottawa