Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

[Bruce Monkhouse]

No

 

[Britney Spears]

I didn't think so.  ;D

 

[mainerjohnthomas]

I didn't think so.  ;D

    You could always go to Tibet and ask them what he means.  Or you could enquire of the rust coloured smear in Tienanmen Square.  You could perhaps wander to the shores of Tiawan where the watch nervously as their neighbor eyes them with unconcealed avarice and ramps up both its rhetoric and arms production.

 

[TCBF]

"Really? Would you care to elaborate?"

Bruce, I can't believe you turned that down.

The sad thing is, they make really good M-14s.  Must be all of those well educated Falun Gong slave labourers in the NORINCO factories.

Tom

 

[Britney Spears]

You could always go to Tibet and ask them what he means.  Or you could enquire of the rust coloured smear in Tienanmen Square.  You could perhaps wander to the shores of Tiawan where the watch nervously as their neighbor eyes them with unconcealed avarice and ramps up both its rhetoric and arms production.

I've addressed all of these at length in previous threads, except for the Tiananmen one, which doesn't seem to me particularly good evidence for a Chinese plot for world domination. Pretty good indication of what happens to hippies in third world countries, though.

So, same offer: Have new arguments? Care to elaborate?

Must be all of those well educated Falun Gong slave labourers in the NORINCO factories.

I can't understand this infatuation with "slave labour". I got news for you, guys: Wages in China are  pretty damn low! The major element of cost in any product made in China will be materials and capital (plant, machine equipment). Do you seriously think anything can be produced in China more cheaply with unwilling slave labour than SKILLED workers willingly working their fingers to the bone for 15c/hour? And producing RIFLES, no less!  ;D This sounds like a twist of the "Chinese resturants/Cat meat" story, where no one ever bothers to think about the cost of Chicken/Beef in North America(pretty damn low) vs the theoretical cost of procureing and proccessing cat/dog meat, also considering that dog meat is generally considered to be a delicacy by the Chinese, you might as well be worried about Mcdonald's slipping a lobster tail into your Big Mac.

Aside from the fact that there's no evidence at all to support either assertion, neither of them even make any economic sense. Let's try and engage the mind a little, shall we?

 

[mainerjohnthomas]

    2.5 Million men under arms, 15% yearly increases in their military budget without any external threat to justify the increase, an arms race not against an external rival, but against some perceived need for unopposable military superiority.  You can Google to search out China's military expansionism in the recent past, unless of course you are in China, in which case such an internet querry could cost you your freedom and/or life.

 

[Britney Spears]

2.5 Million men under arms,

Compared to almost 5 million under arms in 1985 with more cuts still on the way? Of course, both you and I know that these numbers are meaningless in the context of modern warfare, especially since the nature of socialist militaries like Chinas would mean that a large percentage of the "soldiers" are (literally) farmers, construction workers, ballerinas and opera singers who happen to work for the PLA, but who most likely have seen a rifle all of once in their lives.

I'll assume you meant this as a strawman.

15% yearly increases in their military budget without any external threat to justify the increase,

Is this a joke? You honestly believe China has no external threats to contend with?

an arms race not against an external rival, but against some perceived need for unopposable military superiority

Elaborate please. Which "arms race" are we talking about? The replacement of the Mig-19s which still compose of the bulk of the Air Force? The WW2 vintage Romeo class SSKs and Kotlin class DDs (are these even DDGs?) that still compose the bulk of the Navy? Unopposable military superiority indeed....... 

You can Google to search out China's military expansionism in the recent past

I've done a lot more than Google, and suprisingly enough, I haven't found ANY evidence of "China's military expansionism". I've said as much in <a href=http://forums.army.ca/forums/threads/36723.15.html>this thread</a> and asked for some specific examples, but no one took me up on the offer. If you have some examples then I am anxious to hear them.

unless of course you are in China, in which case such an internet querry could cost you your freedom and/or life.

No, it won't. The Chinese block access to sites that they find offensive, such as wikipedia and the BBC. All you'll get is a 404 page not found.

 

[TCBF]

"Is this a joke? You honestly believe China has no external threats to contend with?"

- He might not want to say 'Yes' but I will : China has no external threats to contend with.

Tom

 

[a_majoor]

No, it won't. The Chinese block access to sites that they find offensive, such as wikipedia and the BBC. All you'll get is a 404 page not found.

I suppose this is why the US Senate is castigating American companies who provide limited search services, technical assistence to maintain the "Great Firewall of China" and providing the names of Chinese citizens who use the Internet to exercise the right of freedom of expression to the Chinese government? http://forums.army.ca/forums/threads/39864.0.html

If I find something offensive in the BBC, I turn it off. If I find an inaccurate or poor entry in Wikipedia, I attempt to modify it. I don't expect someone else to turn it off on me or for me, and such action is offensive to the dignity and rights of adults who it is being done to.

 

[Britney Spears]

- He might not want to say 'Yes' but I will : China has no external threats to contend with.

You don't think that the US, with its historical attitude towards China, counts as an external threat? The large American armies and navies, and those of American satellite states like the Philippines and Taiwan surrounding China's borders seem to indicate otherwise. Perhaps American intentions are purely benelovent, but recent US military activities would make that a rather unconvincing argument.

Or how about Japan? With the world's second largest military budget, the most powerful air force and navy of any Asian nation, and a (real this time) history of militaristic expansionism, you can't see them being a threat?

Osumi class LST. You see it's for "self defence".....

Russia? India? Vietnam? I think China is the only country in the world that has fought wars against both North and South Vietnam, as well as both the USSR and the US.......

I suppose this is why the US Senate is castigating American companies who provide limited search services, technical assistence to maintain the "Great Firewall of China" and providing the names of Chinese citizens who use the Internet to exercise the right of freedom of expression to the Chinese government? http://forums.army.ca/forums/threads/39864.0.html

If I find something offensive in the BBC, I turn it off. If I find an inaccurate or poor entry in Wikipedia, I attempt to modify it. I don't expect someone else to turn it off on me or for me, and such action is offensive to the dignity and rights of adults who it is being done to.

I never said it was a good thing, I(when I am in China) and most Chinese hate it too, I was merely pointing out that the claim of 

could cost you your freedom and/or life.

was inaccurate.

 

[mainerjohnthomas]

I never said it was a good thing, I(when I am in China) and most Chinese hate it too, I was merely pointing out that the claim of   was inaccurate.

http://web.amnesty.org/library/Index/ENGASA170012004

http://seclists.org/lists/politech/2002/Dec/0059.html

    Britney, I should have included these links in the original message.  When I said that internet searches could result in your summary imprisonment and possible death, I was actually basing that on the results of those Chinese who have encountered the benevolence of the Peoples Republic, and its outstanding tradition of respecting human rights (as set forth both in its own laws, and the UN Charter).  The links above describe real people, engaging in the same activities that you and I are engaging in right now, suffering punishment from a brutal and repressive regime that mocks its own laws.  Forgive me if I am suspicious of the motivations of the leadership of the Peoples Republic, but their own actions prove them hypocritical and brutal liars.  Heavily armed hypocritical brutal regimes have a nasty tendency to not mention to their neighbors when they plan to invade.  Its a sad little trend in human history.

 

[chanman]

Going back to Taiwan, I wonder if the current president is going to try something more provocative than what he has already in the next two years.  His term ends in 2008, and his support last election was thin enough that it seems unlikely that he will return to power.  The opposition KMT, which ARE for reunification, and their allies maintained a slim majority in the legislature.

Oddly enough, it seems that time works against both causes.  The people in Taiwan who arrived or immigrated from China in the first half of the 20th century are getting older, and their children and grandchildren have less and less attachement to what some of their relatives may still think of as home.

On the other hand, economic ties between the two are growing rapidly.  It may eventually reach the Canada-US level of economic integration.

Emphasis added in bold

Onshoring
Jan 13th 2005
From The Economist print edition


Taiwan is shifting much of its manufacturing to the mainland

IN THE smoke-and-mirrors statistics for foreign investment in China, Hong Kong appears as the biggest investor, followed, oddly, by the Virgin Islands. Trailing in sixth place, behind Japan, South Korea and America, is Taiwan. But if investments were traced back to their true origins, Taiwan might well turn out to be the largest.

The capital flow from Taiwan to China is turning the mainland into a global leader in information-technology (IT) equipment, albeit one that still relies mainly on imports for the more advanced components. In 2002, China overtook Japan and Taiwan to become the world's second-largest IT hardware producer after America. The steep upward curve of China's IT exports is almost exactly matched by its imports of IT components from Taiwan. China is now the world's biggest IT hardware exporter to America. Yet more than 60% of these exports are made in China by Taiwanese companies.

China's latest list of its top 200 export companies is headed by subsidiaries of Taiwanese IT firms: Hon Hai Precision Industry (whose exports from China in 2003 were worth $6.4 billion), Quanta ($5.3 billion) and Asustek ($3.2 billion). Altogether Taiwan has 28 entries on the list, all of them high-tech companies. Far from being undermined by competition from China, Taiwanese IT businesses are benefiting from their production on the mainland, increasing their global market share across a broad range of products, says Nicholas Lardy of the Institute for International Economics in Washington.

Thanks to a huge trade surplus with mainland China, Taiwan has built up the world's third-biggest holding of foreign-currency reserves: a record $239 billion at end-November 2004. Taiwan is second only to Japan as a source of Chinese imports. And for Taiwan, China is the biggest export market. Taiwanese companies employ some 10m people on the mainland. For China, worried as it is about growing unemployment, this is an enormous contribution to stability. In just a few years, a strong economic symbiosis has developed across the Taiwan Strait.

Take the city of Dongguan in Guangdong province (which borders on Hong Kong). The municipality is a vast sprawl of factories, many of them Taiwanese, stretching mile after mile through what were tiny villages a few years ago. Dongguan is awash with Taiwanese money, much of which has been there for a decade or so. Dongguan was an obvious choice for the first wave of Taiwanese investors who flocked to the mainland after the Taiwan government began to ease investment restrictions in the early 1990s. It is close to Hong Kong, which together with nearby Macao offers the only direct flights from Chinese cities to Taiwan.

To start with, Dongguan was a magnet for low technology, labour-intensive industries. But since the late 1990s, Taiwanese investment in the mainland has moved rapidly up the technological ladder. Dongguan is still booming, but the investment hotspot has shifted north to the Yangzi River valley, particularly in the area around Shanghai, an area with good access to skilled workers and potentially better placed for China's domestic market. The town of Kunshan, an hour's drive from Shanghai, has become almost a replica of Taiwan's high-tech industrial zones. Some 300,000 Taiwanese businessmen and their dependants now live in the greater Shanghai area, causing property prices to soar.

Taiwan is rife with stories of kidnappings, robbings and murders of Taiwanese businessmen on the mainland. There is also speculation about how many really make money; Tsai Ing-wen, a former head of Taiwan's mainland-affairs office under President Chen, estimates that only half of them do. Even so, more than 70,000 Taiwanese firms have set up on the mainland, notwithstanding political tensions, Taiwan's restrictions on some investment and the absence of direct flights. “This is a time of global competition,” says Preston Chen, chairman of the Ho Tung Group, which has invested over $100m on the mainland. “If you don't go [to China], others will, and the first to suffer will be you.”


In Dongguan, some Taiwanese businessmen in low-value-added industries are getting restless as the stampede of Taiwanese capital shifts to the north. Some have begun to move elsewhere, including neighbouring Vietnam. “If you come back in ten years it's hard to say whether you'll find any Taiwanese business here,” says Juei Chen Wong, the boss of a Taiwanese electric-wire factory in Dongguan.

He is exaggerating: more likely, other Taiwanese businesses less dependent on cheap labour will move in. For labour-intensive manufacturers geared to the export market, China may be losing some of its shine. But the new wave of Taiwanese investment is looking for skilled labour, and is setting its sights not only on markets abroad but also on a fast-growing group of affluent consumers in China itself. This investment is helping to transform China's trade, now fuelled increasingly by higher-value-added production. In 2003, China exported some $130 billion-worth of electronic and IT products, up 41% on the previous year. Such products accounted for nearly one-third of total exports. Chinese officials say that output of IT products will triple by 2010.

To achieve this, China needs Taiwanese businesses, even if they support independence. In May 2004, the Communist Party's mouthpiece, the People's Daily newspaper, accused Hsu Wen-lung, the founder of Taiwan's Chi Mei Group, which has a large chemical plant on the mainland, of using his profits for pro-independence causes. But China has not taken any direct action against the company. “There are a very small number whom we do not welcome,” says Mr Zhang, the Chinese government spokesman. “But as long as they uphold the law, we let them invest. We have not said we will expel them.”

So near and yet so far

At government level, the two sides still bicker over what they call the “three direct links”: communication, trade and transportation, which have been disrupted since the end of the civil war. But barriers have been quietly dismantled. Mail is channelled through Hong Kong; direct telephone calls have been possible since the 1980s; cross-strait cargo shipping can be routed through a third area, but can go directly if not carrying local freight.

The absence of direct flights except to Hong Kong and Macao is the biggest nuisance, though it really is no more than that. If you set off an hour before dawn from downtown Taipei, you can reach most of the big cities on the mainland by the afternoon. But direct flights would certainly help. Getting to Shanghai currently takes six or seven hours. Flying direct would take 90 minutes.

The Taiwan government estimates that direct air and sea links would reduce shipping costs by 15-30%. Sea transport would be twice as quick, and air travellers would save $390m a year. But direct flights are fraught with symbolism, so both sides are determined to extract maximum political advantage from any move they make.

For Taiwan, direct flights are part of a bigger question: how much economic integration with the mainland it should allow. Should it stop trying to curb investment in certain technologies; open its doors wider to trade with the mainland; and allow mainlanders to work, invest and holiday in Taiwan? The economic arguments are compellingly in favour, particularly in information technology.

http://www.economist.com/research/backgrounders/displaystory.cfm?story_id=3535161

As for the military - the trend in Asia seems to be to expand lately.

http://www.economist.com/research/backgrounders/displaystory.cfm?story_id=157104 has some more info on ongoing changes in China's military

http://mdb.cast.ru/mdb/1-2005/at/russian_arms/ lists some arms sales - In the last few years, for instance, Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, Indonesia, and the RoK have all bought/planned to buy new combat aircraft.


EDIT:  Attached something some might find interesting.  Labour in China is cheap, but in comparison to some of the neighbours, not THAT cheap

 

[TCBF]

"You don't think that the US, with its historical attitude towards China, counts as an external threat?"

- Historical?  I grant you there have been some disputes, but a lot of allies died helping the Chinese defend themselves in - and even before the USA entered -  WW2.  Flying Tigers, and all that.

- It was China that invaded Vietnam - "To teach them a lesson"  - in 1979. (I was in Cyprus at the time, and we were almost as surprised as the PLA at how fast the Viets mobilized their village defence forces and re-deployed their reserves.  I guess being at war for a while hones ones skills. )

- I don't think anyone envisions imposing their will on China by inserting an Army onto Chinese soil.  Most of the Chinese fascism of the moment is a holdover from the Communist Party of the Long March generation, and probably provides an attempt to prevent a serious deterioration of their civil structure which might in fact lead to the worlds first nuclear civil war.

It's a tough call: the out of control train keeps going faster and faster, but you can't find a clear spot to jump off.  So you keep looking, hoping to find a soft spot, all the while realizing that the train will eventually go so fast that no soft spot in the world will do you any good.

So:  At what point do you unite the populace in a war to liberate Formosa?  Or will a miscalculation result in another Falklands?

Tom

 

[chanman]

"You don't think that the US, with its historical attitude towards China, counts as an external threat?"

- Historical?  I grant you there have been some disputes, but a lot of allies died helping the Chinese defend themselves in - and even before the USA entered -  WW2.  Flying Tigers, and all that.

Britney might be referring to foreign military presence and concessions to Imperial powers until WW2 really got under way.

It's a tough call: the out of control train keeps going faster and faster, but you can't find a clear spot to jump off.  So you keep looking, hoping to find a soft sopt, all the while realizing that the train will eventually go so fast that no soft spot in the world will do you any good.

So:  At what point do you unite the populace in a war to liberate Formosa?  Or will a miscalculation result in another Falklands?

Tom

Since his decline in popularity, the incumbant president in Taiwan might try to do the same thing with an independence bid.

 

[TCBF]

"Britney might be referring to foreign military presence and concessions to Imperial powers until WW2 really got under way."

- Yup. Hence my: "I grant you there have been some disputes,"

"Since his decline in popularity, the incumbant president in Taiwan might try to do the same thing with an independence bid."

- So, you equate a bid for independance with a full blown amphibious and airborne assault?  Please explain.

Tom

 

[chanman]

- So, you equate a bid for independance with a full blown amphibious and airborne assault?  Please explain.

Similar in that in both cases, the respective parties are taking an internationally confrontational position in order to rally nationalist sentiment and political support maybe?

 

[Britney Spears]

Britney, I should have included these links in the original message.  When I said that internet searches could result in your summary imprisonment and possible death, I was actually basing that on the results of those Chinese who have encountered the benevolence of the Peoples Republic, and its outstanding tradition of respecting human rights (as set forth both in its own laws, and the UN Charter).  The links above describe real people, engaging in the same activities that you and I are engaging in right now, suffering punishment from a brutal and repressive regime that mocks its own laws.  Forgive me if I am suspicious of the motivations of the leadership of the Peoples Republic, but their own actions prove them hypocritical and brutal liars.  Heavily armed hypocritical brutal regimes have a nasty tendency to not mention to their neighbors when they plan to invade.  Its a sad little trend in human history.

The issue is far more complex than that, and your original statement that an internet query would result in imprisonment or death is still inaccurate. The people mentioned in your links were imprisoned for dissemination of subersive information, not seeking it.

Look, you're going off on a tangent here. Censoring the internet is peanuts compared to the other nasty things that the regime has been responsible for.  I'm not trying to apologize for the actions of the regime in this matter, but life in the third world sucks, eh? I don't see how this indicates that there is some Chinese plan for world domination afoot.

- Historical?  I grant you there have been some disputes, but a lot of allies died helping the Chinese defend themselves in - and even before the USA entered -  WW2.  Flying Tigers, and all that.

I was thinking more about post WW2. Things sort of went sour after 1949.

I don't think anyone envisions imposing their will on China by inserting an Army onto Chinese soil.

No one expected Desert Storm to be as succesful as it was. Hence my comment about the uselessness of comparing sheer numbers of soldiers. The Chinese military leadership has already seen the writing on the wall. Hence the shift from the old defence in depth and numbers to well equiped and MOBILE rapid reaction forces. This is the same shift that we (NATO) have already gone through, the Chinese just didn't realize it until 1991. The change is just beginning. The Chinese army is still organized to fight the USSR.

t's a tough call: the out of control train keeps going faster and faster, but you can't find a clear spot to jump off.  So you keep looking, hoping to find a soft spot, all the while realizing that the train will eventually go so fast that no soft spot in the world will do you any good.

So:  At what point do you unite the populace in a war to liberate Formosa?  Or will a miscalculation result in another Falklands?

They've done a lot better than anyone really expected them to. See Russia for an example of how it could be far worse.

 

[TCBF]

"They've done a lot better than anyone really expected them to. See Russia for an example of how it could be far worse."

- I actually think Russia has done it better.  Whether they continue as a nominal democracy remains to be seen, but at least the party left office - for awhile.

"Things sort of went sour after 1949."

- Hardly the USA's fault, was it?

"No one expected Desert Storm to be as successful as it was."

- Invading a country of 21,000,000 is not invading a country of 1,200,000,000.  For defence, the PLA peasent army  - with a professional cadre and the 400 nukes (of which maybe 100 are ICBMs)  are deterrent enough.  The bulk of the Japanese Army fought the Chinese - not the Americans.  If the Japanese then could not do it with the bayonet, I doubt ANY country, or group of countries today could give it a shot.  You know how the west - include modern Japan in this case - abhors ground combat, and Russia and India lack the transportation and logistics to just harass the edges.

So, who, seriously, are they worried about, other than themselves?

Tom

 

[Britney Spears]

- Hardly the USA's fault, was it?

I didn't say it was anyone's fault, but as it turns out the USA spent a few decades trying to "contain" China, and they didn't like it.

- Invading a country of 21,000,000 is not invading a country of 1,200,000,000. 

I meant Desert Storm, AKA GW1, not GW2, although the lesson is the same: A green, inexperienced but well equipped and technically competent western army smashed an experienced WW1 army with 60s era soviet equipment. The defeat of the Iraqis was so total, the Americans didn't NEED to actually invade Iraq(and thus get caught up in the defence in depth which is what the Chinese/Iraqis would have expected) to achieve their political aims.  The Chinese were trying to do the same thing in 1979 and it was a complete disaster.

What the Chinese realized was that an all out invasion would be unlikely, but a regional, high intensity, short duration conflict where training, equipment, mobility and airpower counted for more than numbers or political indoctrination would now be the norm. Thus the new emphasis on power projection, rapid downsizing of the army and (most importantly) the establishment of professional NCO academies and much more enticing NCO career progression, something that most third world armies never manage to pull off. This type of western style army would NOT be very well suited for wars of conquest (that would require numbers), but better for the type of regional skirmish that the Chinese leadership envision themselves getting into around, say, the Diaoyu islands or the South China sea.  To put this into a cultural context, defeat in these kinds of little wars was exactly what send China into the downward spiral in the late 1800s, and no Chinese, whatever their political bent, wants to see a repeat of that era.

Thus, I would argue that the current shifts in Chinese military posture is not an indication of aggressive expansionism but only an adjustment to face modern military realities.

 

[TCBF]

Chinese military official calls for stepped up training, denounces Taiwan independence
06-Mar-2006 05:32 GMT
News Service: The Associated Press
BEIJING_China's military is ready to step up training and boost its ability to defend the nation's territory, a top army official said in remarks published Monday, warning Taiwan against attempting to declare independence.
"We resolutely oppose 'Taiwan independence' and will never allow 'Taiwan independence' secessionist forces to make Taiwan secede from China under any name and by any means," the official Xinhua News Agency quoted Guo Boxiong, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, as saying.
China stepped up its rhetoric against Taiwan after the self-ruled island's president, Chen Shui-bian, recently shut down a Taiwanese government body devoted to seeking unification with the mainland.
The two sides have been divided since 1949, but Beijing claims Taiwan as its territory and has threatened to use force to attain unification if necessary.
Guo denounced Chen's move as a step toward independence for Taiwan, calling it a "grave provocation" that would seriously undermine peace and stability, Xinhua said.
"We will make utmost efforts with maximum sincerity to safeguard and promote peaceful and steady development of relations across the Taiwan Strait and seek peaceful reunification," Guo told a gathering of military delegates to China's parliament in Beijing.
On Sunday, the government announced that its military budget will rise 14.7 percent this year to 283.8 billion yuan (US$35.3 billion; euro28.6 billion). China has announced double-digit spending increases for its military nearly every year since the early 1990s, causing unease among its neighbors.
JANE'S DEFENCE WEEKLY - MARCH 08, 2006