CDN/US Covid-related political discussion

[Remius]

I was trying to see if there was an explanation as to why it seems less deadly now than back then.  Not arguing what you are saying about the overall numbers as a whole.  We cocooned young people then we aren’t now. So the deaths per million has shifted as a result.

And deaths and hospitalisation follows disease activity.  You have to look forward a few weeks based on what is going on now.

And I find it funny that people seem to think we are locked down in our homes.  Like we can’t actually go anywhere.  And you forget conveniently that schools started in sept.  So no we aren’t exactly under the same conditions.

We are where we are because people don’t think the rules apply to them.

This society is weak when they can’t follow simple guidelines.

It needs to be balanced.  Pulling the band aid off is not.  Sorry but I’ll defer to the experts.

And just a note.  We already have a generation unable to socialize in public.  That all started well before Covid.

 

[mariomike]

Sorry but I’ll defer to the experts.

Me too. 

 

[PuckChaser]

I was trying to see if there was an explanation as to why it seems less deadly now than back then.  Not arguing what you are saying about the overall numbers as a whole.  We cocooned young people then we aren’t now. So the deaths per million has shifted as a result.

We cocooned everyone in March/April/May, in fact the 69 and under crowd were likely the folks out working the front lines to keep the economy going while we made an "iron ring" around LTC facilities (that didn't work). All we learned was that once COVID got into a vulnerable population that's trapped inside with recirculated air, it was like throwing gas on a fire.

 

[brihard]

Ontario's current case fatality rate is 0.04% and dropping. 85% of Ontario's cases are from the 69 and under age group but only comprise 13% of the fatalities. That means 15% of our cases are from the 70+ group comprise 87% of the fatalities. Thats where we need to focus our attention, on the 70+ age group to keep them safe from high risk situations.

Uhh... Where are you getting .04% as a CFR? I think you're getting 'ratio' and 'percent' mixed up. Ontario's had 3371 deaths out of about 79k resolved cases. That's a i]ratio[/i] of about .04, or a 4% fatality rate. 4% of people who are diagnosed dying is very different from .04%. Even if we incorporate preliminary seroprevalence data and assume that the actual CFR is only a third of that, more than 1% of people infected with the virus dying is nothing to laugh at. Sure, it's mostly killing grandma and grandpa, and some people care less about them than others, but there's also increasingly ugly evidence emerging about long term health effects in younger patients. The rate of ICU and ventilator usage is considerably higher than for seasonal influenza, and it's not like ICUs are for COVID only. That ICU bed not available because COVID is running rampant might be the one that was needed by the 23 year old kid in the car accident, or the 34 year old who's in a critical stage of cancer treatment. Nor is the impact on hospitals limited to ICUs. When staff are being run ragged across the board, that's putting tremendous strain on other procedures and followup care.

We've got doctors and public health officials across the board raising the alarm about ICU usage and the very real risk of impending overload (and we're seeing this starting in the states). They have no reason not to be honest about this. I'm inclined to defer to those dealing with this on the front lines. It's easy for those of us not directly impacted by the actual illness either personally or professionally to be annoyed at the impacts on our lives. But against the risk of hospital overload that impacts not just COVID cases, but anything the hospitals take care of, I think we need to be doing something other than just deciding to shrug and take it on the chin.

 

[PuckChaser]

Uhh... Where are you getting .04% as a CFR? I think you're getting 'ratio' and 'percent' mixed up. Ontario's had 3371 deaths out of about 79k resolved cases. That's a i]ratio[/i] of about .04, or a 4% fatality rate. 4% of people who are diagnosed dying is very different from .04%. Even if we incorporate preliminary seroprevalence data and assume that the actual CFR is only a third of that, more than 1% of people infected with the virus dying is nothing to laugh at.

You've got the math wrong. Ontario doesn't count a death as a resolved case. 79K resolved cases are survivals. There's roughly 12K active cases that we have to remove from the equation because we don't know the outcome. That means of roughly 82K people who have been diagnosed with COVID19, only 3371 died. That means 3371/82K = Case Fataility Rate/Ratio of 0.04%. Obviously this rate is way higher the older you get, and once you get past average life expectancy it's devastating in it's severity.

Case Fatality Rate and Ratio are interchangeable. https://www.britannica.com/science/case-fatality-rate

As an example, consider two populations. One population consists of 1,000 people; 300 of these people have the specified disease, 100 of whom die from the disease. In this case, the mortality rate for the disease is 100 ÷ 1,000 = 0.1, or 10 percent. The case fatality rate is 100 ÷ 300 = 0.33, or 33 percent. The second population also has 1,000 people; 50 people have the disease and 40 die from it. Here the mortality rate is 40 ÷ 1,000 = 0.04, or 4 percent; the case fatality rate, however, is 40 ÷ 50 = 0.8, or 80 percent. The incidence of death from the disease is higher in the first population, but the severity of disease is greater in the second.

No one is arguing COVID isn't serious, but it's also not the Spanish Flu and seroprevalence data is only going to show more people than originally thought were at one point infected with COVID-19 which will drive down the CFR as the vast majority of those individuals submitting samples for the seroprevalence study are presumably alive while agreeing to do so. Fear was reasonable in early 2020. The data now suggests the vast majority can and will survive this. Especially now that our vulnerable populations are going to be targetted for vaccination in the next 3-4 months.

 

[brihard]

You've got the math wrong. Ontario doesn't count a death as a resolved case. 79K resolved cases are survivals. There's roughly 12K active cases that we have to remove from the equation because we don't know the outcome. That means of roughly 82K people who have been diagnosed with COVID19, only 3371 died. That means 3371/82K = Case Fataility Rate/Ratio of 0.04%. Obviously this rate is way higher the older you get, and once you get past average life expectancy it's devastating in it's severity.

Case Fatality Rate and Ratio are interchangeable. https://www.britannica.com/science/case-fatality-rate
No one is arguing COVID isn't serious, but it's also not the Spanish Flu and seroprevalence data is only going to show more people than originally thought were at one point infected with COVID-19 which will drive down the CFR as the vast majority of those individuals submitting samples for the seroprevalence study are presumably alive while agreeing to do so. Fear was reasonable in early 2020. The data now suggests the vast majority can and will survive this. Especially now that our vulnerable populations are going to be targetted for vaccination in the next 3-4 months.

That’s not how percentages work. Numerator over denominator, multiplied by 100%.

The meaningful comparison is how many died versus how many cases have run their course. So, a slight error on my part- that should be 3371 deaths divided by (3371 deaths + 79295 resolved). So 3371/82665. = .04077. To turn that into percent, multiply by 100%, for a case fatality ratio of 4% just about on the nose. That is to say, one out of every 25 cases that have tested positive and have run their course in Ontario have died. That’s very different from what you’re claiming.

I also noted that not all real cases get diagnosed, which is what I approximated off the Canada Blood Services seroprevalence sampling from blood donations in the late spring and early summer. If one in three cases are getting diagnosed through testing, that’s still one in every 75 actual infections dying. I consider that significant. I don’t know if you do. I believe public health officials do too.

 

[mariomike]

Thank you for the explanation, Brihard.

 

[PuckChaser]

That’s not how percentages work. Numerator over denominator, multiplied by 100%.

The meaningful comparison is how many died versus how many cases have run their course. So, a slight error on my part- that should be 3371 deaths divided by (3371 deaths + 79295 resolved). So 3371/82665. = .04077. To turn that into percent, multiply by 100%, for a case fatality ratio of 4% just about on the nose. That is to say, one out of every 25 cases that have tested positive and have run their course in Ontario have died. That’s very different from what you’re claiming.

I also noted that not all real cases get diagnosed, which is what I approximated off the Canada Blood Services seroprevalence sampling from blood donations in the late spring and early summer. If one in three cases are getting diagnosed through testing, that’s still one in every 75 actual infections dying. I consider that significant. I don’t know if you do. I believe public health officials do too.

I cannot believe I doubled down on simple percentages by not multiplying by 100. No more math after work. Thanks for bearing with me on that one.  :facepalm:

Even at 4%, which is a number skewed by 70+ individuals it's a rapidly falling CFR. The US has kinda let COVID figure itself out in most states, and they're running a 2.19% (not corrected for unresolved cases) CFR that's dropping every day. If the CFR we saw in April/May was the real number, we should see quadruple the fatalities we're seeing now, which shows the virus is either weakening as it mutates through generations, or the original numbers weren't accurate due to the abnormally high 70+ year old demographic infection rate.

 

[CBH99]

That’s not how percentages work. Numerator over denominator, multiplied by 100%.

The meaningful comparison is how many died versus how many cases have run their course. So, a slight error on my part- that should be 3371 deaths divided by (3371 deaths + 79295 resolved). So 3371/82665. = .04077. To turn that into percent, multiply by 100%, for a case fatality ratio of 4% just about on the nose. That is to say, one out of every 25 cases that have tested positive and have run their course in Ontario have died. That’s very different from what you’re claiming.

I also noted that not all real cases get diagnosed, which is what I approximated off the Canada Blood Services seroprevalence sampling from blood donations in the late spring and early summer. If one in three cases are getting diagnosed through testing, that’s still one in every 75 actual infections dying. I consider that significant. I don’t know if you do. I believe public health officials do too.

Look at you guys.  Using your fancy numbers 


Kidding aside, I'm impressed.  Reading your post, and PuckChaser's also - I realized how horribly rusty I am at using basic math to calculate the way you guys did  :facepalm:

 

[dapaterson]

"Now that all the old folks are dead, the death rates look better".

 

[brihard]

I cannot believe I doubled down on simple percentages by not multiplying by 100. No more math after work. Thanks for bearing with me on that one.  :facepalm:

Even at 4%, which is a number skewed by 70+ individuals it's a rapidly falling CFR. The US has kinda let COVID figure itself out in most states, and they're running a 2.19% (not corrected for unresolved cases) CFR that's dropping every day. If the CFR we saw in April/May was the real number, we should see quadruple the fatalities we're seeing now, which shows the virus is either weakening as it mutates through generations, or the original numbers weren't accurate due to the abnormally high 70+ year old demographic infection rate.

All good.

I’d suggest caution in looking to the states. Their situation is rapidly worsening. A quarter million dead Americans is their right now start point, and more and more localities and states are sounding the alarm over hospital capacity. Deaths lag diagnoses by a couple weeks. Based on what their case count has done in the past eight or ten days, it’s about to get really ugly again. America’s handling of COVID has been a miserable failure, and most of the lessons to be learned there are what not to do.

 

[ModlrMike]

Folks can argue numbers all they want, but in the end, it's people. For me, operating at the coal face every day, it's not numbers.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

"Now that all the old folks are dead, the death rates look better".

This is actually what has happened though.  What COVID did was kill a tonne of vulnerable people very quickly.  Those people were at the end of their life though.  We then locked down creating a false savings which makes it look like we are doing something.  Reality is the lockdowns aren't going to make one iota of difference.

The disease itself is not deadly for most, it's just highly contagious.  I have zero fear of this disease for myself personally.

I am very worried about the long term socio-economic consequences of our decisions, health of children, health of our country. We may give a few vulnerable individuals a few extra months or years of life but it is going to come at a tremendous cost.

The only people clammering for lockdowns are civil servants, pensioners and people with money who are in a position of power and can afford to sit at home and zoom chat all day.  Lockdowns are an attack on the working class and poor of this Country.

 

[mariomike]

Sorry but I’ll defer to the experts.

With all due respect to anonymous strangers on the internet, I agree.

Nov 15, 2020

Calgary's emergency management chief says Alberta needs a 28-day 'circuit breaker' lockdown to battle COVID-19
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/tom-sampson-lockdown-1.5802957

 

[Remius]

I’m not clammering for a full lockdown but prefer a balanced approach.  I am lucky to still have two healthy parents that I can still get maybe 15 to 20 years out of before never seeing them again.  I want to keep it that way. 

That’s what I am clammering for.

That makes me selfish but  I don’t really care.

 

[mariomike]

The Ontario Nurses' Association had this to say to the public,

Ontario Nurses’ Association calls for 28-day lockdown
https://toronto.citynews.ca/video/2020/11/16/ontario-nurses-association-calls-for-28-day-lockdown/

 

[Scott]

Folks can argue numbers all they want, but in the end, it's people. For me, operating at the coal face every day, it's not numbers.

This needs to be quoted more.

This is where you can get the straight dope on what's happening, and perhaps forecasts based on an SMEs* experience.

*Anyone else at the coal face with a differing opinion?

 

[mariomike]

No longer at the "coal face". But, I keep in touch via phone with friends who still are.

Thankfully, not this bad, yet, in Toronto. But, in NYC, ( during the "First Wave" ) paramedics reported being sent to more cardiac "In just one shift in early April, the veteran New York City paramedic had to tell a dozen families that a loved one had died from suspected coronavirus. But in the days that followed, this became his grim routine."

"At the height of the health crisis in New York, he says he was responding to between nine and 13 coronavirus-related cardiac arrests a day, on top of “normal” call-outs."

( That was earlier this year during the "First Wave". )

( Out of hospital DOAs are not transported to hospital by paramedics - therefore unlikely to be tested for Covid and included in the count. )

Rest of the story,
https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:VTCD-imQQH4J:https://queenscitizen.ca/2020/06/13/coronavirus-coming-to-terms-with-months-on-the-front-line/+&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=ca

From what I read in the news, if I understand correctly, Covid does not seem to be an "urban versus rural" thing either. I read about paramedics across Canada and the US being overwhelmed.

Love how they tar every right leaning folk with the same brush.....no wonder most folk have given up on the media.

They are honestly the assholes of the free world...

"Enemy of the people"...?

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Folks can argue numbers all they want, but in the end, it's people. For me, operating at the coal face every day, it's not numbers.

No offence but this makes you totally susceptible to what is known in economics as the Broken Window Fallacy or only taking in to consideration that which is seen vs that which is unseen.

No longer at the "coal face". But, I keep in touch via phone with friends who still are.

Thankfully, not this bad, yet, in Toronto. But, in NYC, ( during the "First Wave" ) paramedics reported being sent to more cardiac "In just one shift in early April, the veteran New York City paramedic had to tell a dozen families that a loved one had died from suspected coronavirus. But in the days that followed, this became his grim routine."

"At the height of the health crisis in New York, he says he was responding to between nine and 13 coronavirus-related cardiac arrests a day, on top of “normal” call-outs."

( That was earlier this year during the "First Wave". )

( Out of hospital DOAs are not transported to hospital by paramedics - therefore unlikely to be tested for Covid and included in the count. )

Rest of the story,
https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:VTCD-imQQH4J:https://queenscitizen.ca/2020/06/13/coronavirus-coming-to-terms-with-months-on-the-front-line/+&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=ca

From what I read in the news, if I understand correctly, Covid does not seem to be an "urban versus rural" thing either. I read about paramedics across Canada and the US being overwhelmed.


"Enemy of the people"...?

And because I haven't responded to you yet, I hate to break it to you but paramedics, nurses and doctors aren't economists, security experts or even public health policy experts. 

Asking an emergency room doctor or nurse how we should effectively fight a pandemic is the equivalent of asking a corporal ot lieutenant how we should prosecute a Military campaign.

There are so many variables that have not been considered in our present situation.  It feels to me like we are only considering one variable, the big elephant in the room that is COVID cases. 

I'll repeat it again, it's easy for us to sit here and be all high and mighty from our positions of privilege.  It's easy for people with money and security to preach the benefits of locking down.  There are many that don't have that luxury and we have done nothing for them.  I'll change my tune the day a single Government employee gets laid off.
Lockdowns are an attack against the working class of this Country.

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

Good post.....I know I've sounded off a few times at the "lock it downs" here at work.  "We're making tons of overtime, if you want it, and you're going to speak for the breadwinner who's about to tell their family to get used to living in a van?"