http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/711772--canada-s-military-peers-into-future-and-it-s-scary
OTTAWA–The war between India and Pakistan spills over into Toronto's immigrant suburbs. A terrorist sleeper cell poisons Montreal's water system. Mandatory military service is enacted for young and new Canadians.
While the country's politicians debate what Canada's engagement in Afghanistan will look like after the current mission ends in 2011, the military has already peered far past that date to determine its training and equipment needs and the worst-case scenarios it must prepare to face.
While the Armed Forces constantly project scenarios for which to train, these hypothetical situations are rarely publicized. Although they appear far-fetched, the military is obliged to prepare for the worst, or risk being unready in the event of a catastrophe.
A 10-year forecast completed for the air force lays out likely trends in areas such as oil prices and aviation technologies, but also a series of "strategic shocks" – unpredictable events that could throw the best-laid plans off course.
The report predicts that oil prices will have doubled, tripled or quadrupled by 2019, unmanned attack aircraft will police the skies, and the Arctic will have become the zone of interest for the world's great powers.
A lethal, all-commando Canadian army may not stay in Kandahar, but it will be fighting terrorists in a geographic rainbow known as the "arc of instability" – a region stretching from western Africa, through the Middle East and into Southeast Asia.
"These areas have also traditionally served as potential safe havens for terrorists in developing, organizing and preparing for asymmetric attacks against the developed world," says the report, produced earlier this year by the Canadian Forces Aerospace Warfare Centre.
No more country-to-country wars for Canada. Instead, soldiers will face shadowy enemies in weak or failed states with little regard for civilian safety.
"It is projected that irregular challenges, asymmetrical warfare, low-intensity conflicts and insurgencies will be the most prevalent form of conflict until 2019."
The report also explicitly probes Canada's domestic fault lines – features like our shared border and trade ties with the United States or our large immigrant populations – and puts them up against some of the world's most volatile disputes to offer scenarios showing how a largely peaceful society could be torn apart.