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CAN-USA 2025 Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

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@DanKnightMMA


Let’s take a moment to appreciate Justin Trudeau’s brilliant strategy for handling Trump’s latest stunt: tariffs. Trump, in true Trump fashion, threatens to slap a 25% tariff on Canadian goods, because apparently, Canada is responsible for all of America’s problems—from border security to fentanyl. And Trudeau’s response? A $150 billion countermeasure plan that includes the possibility of crippling Alberta’s energy sector. Genius! Except one small problem: Alberta said, ‘No thanks.’

Why wasn’t Alberta there? Because Premier Danielle Smith isn’t an idiot. Trudeau’s plan includes export levies on Canadian oil, a move that would essentially tell Alberta to torch its own economy to help Trudeau look tough on Trump. Alberta exports $13.3 billion of energy to the U.S. every month, making it the lifeblood of this country’s economy. But sure, let’s just gamble that away because Trudeau needs a distraction from his sinking legacy.

But Alberta’s refusal isn’t just about this plan. It’s about years—years—of Ottawa treating Alberta like the black sheep of Confederation. Remember the Northern Gateway Pipeline? Trudeau killed it. Energy East? Dead, too. Those projects could’ve given Alberta access to global markets. Instead, Trudeau left the province landlocked, dependent on the U.S., and completely vulnerable to economic extortion like this. And now, after all that sabotage, he expects Alberta to ‘unite’ behind his plan? Please.

And don’t even get me started on Bill C-69. They call it the ‘Impact Assessment Act,’ but Albertans know it as the ‘No More Pipelines Bill.’ This masterpiece of legislation basically made it impossible to build anything that moves oil. And just to twist the knife, Trudeau slapped on a carbon tax—because nothing says ‘we care about your economy’ like making it more expensive to run it.

And then there’s Quebec. Oh, Quebec. The province that’s spent years wagging its finger at Alberta, calling its oil sands ‘dirty energy’ and blocking pipeline projects that could’ve helped the whole country. Meanwhile, Quebec gleefully cashes billions in equalization payments, heavily subsidized by Alberta’s oil wealth. That’s right—the same people who call Alberta the bad guy are more than happy to take their money. And now Trudeau wants Alberta to step up and take one for the team? Give me a break.

Danielle Smith saw this nonsense for what it is: exploitation. She flatly refused to sign onto any plan that includes export levies or energy restrictions. And you know what? Good for her. She said, ‘Federal officials are floating the idea of cutting off energy supply to the U.S. and imposing tariffs on Alberta energy. Until these threats cease, Alberta cannot support the federal government’s plan.’ Translation: Alberta is done being Ottawa’s doormat.

Let’s not forget why Alberta is even in this mess. For nine years, Trudeau’s government has treated Alberta like its personal piggy bank, siphoning billions through equalization payments while doing absolutely nothing—zero—to support its economy. When oil prices collapsed and families were struggling, what did Alberta get? Crickets. Trudeau was too busy virtue-signaling to his globalist pals to care. And now, with Trump threatening a 25% tariff that could cripple Alberta’s economy, Trudeau has the audacity to turn around and ask Alberta to make the ultimate sacrifice. You can’t make this stuff up.

And then Danielle Smith does what any rational leader would do—she heads to Mar-a-Lago to defend her province’s interests. And what does Trudeau’s cabinet do? They lose their minds, clutch their pearls, and call her ‘unpatriotic.’ Unpatriotic? Are you kidding me? This is coming from the same government that has spent nearly a decade treating Alberta like the annoying little sibling of Confederation—good enough to bankroll Quebec’s luxurious equalization payments, but not important enough to actually listen to. And now, after years of kicking Alberta to the curb, they expect Smith to roll over, play nice, and ‘work together’? Please.

Doug Ford says, ‘United we stand, divided we fall.’ Great soundbite, Doug. But unity doesn’t mean asking one province to carry the load while others reap the rewards. Quebec Premier François Legault says, ‘Nothing’s off the table.’ Of course not—Quebec isn’t paying the price. This isn’t unity; it’s a shakedown.

Here’s the reality: Alberta isn’t at the table because Ottawa hasn’t earned the right to ask them to be. You don’t treat a province like an ATM for nearly a decade and then expect them to roll over when you need a favor. Danielle Smith stood up and said, ‘Enough.’ And frankly, good for her.

So here’s the real question: how long does Ottawa think it can keep exploiting Alberta before the province decides it’s had enough? Because let me tell you, when Alberta’s done, it’s not just the energy sector that’s going to feel it—it’s the entire country.

Add this to the comment that we are too cheap re pipelines. Who do you think stopped these projects and the reasons why?

Mackenzie Gas Project 1999 NWT to AB, 1200km - Dead 2017
Northern Gateway 2006AB to BC, 1177km - Dead 2016
Keystone XL 2008 AB to USA, 1897km - Dead 2021
Energy East 2013AB to NB, 4600km - Dead 2017

Excellent post.

But it's confirmation bias for myself.
 
First of all this incompetent Liberal government should not be negotiating with Trump. Let alone, Parliament is prorogued, not functioning due to the Green Slush fund scandal, and wasting time electing a new Capt of the Titanic.
Canada's debt is now more the all the debt of all previous governments in Canada's history that included two world wars.

In one year Trudeau increased the deficit from a WAG of $40.1 Billion to $62 Billion.

We pay more interest payments on the debt than we do on health services.

And this is the government is negotiating with Trump? Joly?


The headline says it all. Aberta doesn't trust Ottawa, especially this government.
First words out of the government:

And Liberal government history PROVES what that means -Alberta oil. Without a doubt, this government would put tariffs on AB first, before Hydro from ON/PQ.
Parliament is not the government. You’re getting legislative and executive branches mixed up.

Trump takes his seat in a few days. Canada only has one government at a time and the government of the day is the only one that can negotiate. Until an election concludes and a new party takes power and forms a new government, what we’ve got is what we’ve got. We aren’t obligated to like it, but it’s an objective reality.
 
"Business Leaders" they got Arlene Dickinson for name brand recognition... Looks like an LPC high five committee...

Tom Cruise Goose GIF by Top Gun
 
And Liberal government history PROVES what that means -Alberta oil. Without a doubt, this government would put tariffs on AB first, before Hydro from ON/PQ.
Knock-on effects from increased oil/gas prices are much easier to deal with politically than electricity's much more immediate "pensioner freezing to death because the bill went up" potential outcomes.
 
Patronage?
Some specific industry & sector expertise to be mined, but politics dial's well above zero, too - a very quick Google-fu of the team ....
  • Jean Charest (fmr QC premier, Team Red from Team Blue)
  • Rachel Notley (fmr AB premier, Team Orange)
  • Stephen McNeil (fmr NS premier, Team Red)
  • David MacNaughton (fmr CAN envoy to USA, appointed by Team Red - helped wrestle in the USMCA fight)
  • Steve Verheul (former chief negotiator during NAFTA=>USMCA)
  • Arlene Dickinson (Comms/venture capital company CEO)
  • Linda Hasenfratz (CEO of auto parts maker, part of Team Blue's COVID-19 Ontario vaccine team - gets the auto parts sector???)
  • Lana Payne (UNIFOR union pres)
  • Jody Thomas (former DM DND)
  • Flavio Volpe (pres of Automotive Parts Manufacturers' Association (APMA) in Canada - more auto parts expertise??)
  • Tabatha Bull (Pres/CEO of Canadian Council for Aboriginal Business)
  • Shahrzad Rafati (CEO of "a global media and technology company" - also done some work in other Team Red gov't appointments)
  • Hassan Yussuff (former Canada Labour Congress pres)
  • Wes Hall (founder/CEO of a "shareholder services and advisory firm" that, among other things, managed Xstrata's takeover of Falconbridge)
  • Martin Caron (head of Union des producteurs agricoles - sounds like the "protect the sector" guy)
  • Brian Topp (Notley's former Chief of Staff)
  • Tim Gitzel (head of Cameco Corporation, one of the world's largest providers of uranium fuel - could be an SK voice for Big Nuke Fuel?)
  • Ambassador Kirsten Hillman (current CAN envoy to US)
LATE ADD: Unless one of these folks are Indigenous, that group seems to be missing in the mix, much to the consternation of some.
 
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Some specific industry & sector expertise to be mined, but politics dial's well above zero, too - a very quick Google-fu of the team ....
  • Jean Charest (fmr QC premier, Team Red from Team Blue)
  • Rachel Notley (fmr AB premier, Team Orange)
  • Stephen McNeil (fmr NS premier, Team Red)
  • David MacNaughton (fmr CAN envoy to USA, appointed by Team Red - helped wrestle in the USMCA fight)
  • Steve Verheul (former chief negotiator during NAFTA=>USMCA)
  • Arlene Dickinson (Comms/venture capital company CEO)
  • Linda Hasenfratz (CEO of auto parts maker, part of Team Blue's COVID-19 Ontario vaccine team - gets the auto parts sector???)
  • Lana Payne (UNIFOR union pres)
  • Jody Thomas (former DM DND)
  • Flavio Volpe (pres of Automotive Parts Manufacturers' Association (APMA) in Canada - more auto parts expertise??)
  • Tabatha Bull (Pres/CEO of Canadian Council for Aboriginal Business)
  • Shahrzad Rafati (CEO of "a global media and technology company" - also done some work in other Team Red gov't appointments)
  • Hassan Yussuff (former Canada Labour Congress pres)
  • Wes Hall (founder/CEO of a "shareholder services and advisory firm" that, among other things, managed Xstrata's takeover of Falconbridge)
  • Martin Caron (head of Union des producteurs agricoles - sounds like the "protect the sector" guy)
  • Brian Topp (Notley's former Chief of Staff): Brian Topp is a political strategist and former Chief of Staff to the Premier of Alberta. He has extensive experience in federal and provincial politics and has been involved in various policy development initiatives.
  • Tim Gitzel (head of Cameco Corporation, one of the world's largest providers of uranium fuel - could be an SK voice for Big Nuke Fuel?)
  • Ambassador Kirsten Hillman (current CAN envoy to US)
LATE ADD: Unless one of these folks are Indigenous, that group seems to be missing in the mix, much to the consternation of some.
Indigenous for indigenous’ sake would be meaningless tokenism.

I don’t see any voice for our oil and gas industry, and that’s a problem.
 

First Nations should be at the centre of any discussions on how the country should respond to threats of tariffs and on territorial sovereignty

Yeah about that, no.
 
Some specific industry & sector expertise to be mined, but politics dial's well above zero, too - a very quick Google-fu of the team ....
  • Jean Charest (fmr QC premier, Team Red from Team Blue)
  • Rachel Notley (fmr AB premier, Team Orange)
  • Stephen McNeil (fmr NS premier, Team Red)
  • David MacNaughton (fmr CAN envoy to USA, appointed by Team Red - helped wrestle in the USMCA fight)
  • Steve Verheul (former chief negotiator during NAFTA=>USMCA)
  • Arlene Dickinson (Comms/venture capital company CEO)
  • Linda Hasenfratz (CEO of auto parts maker, part of Team Blue's COVID-19 Ontario vaccine team - gets the auto parts sector???)
  • Lana Payne (UNIFOR union pres)
  • Jody Thomas (former DM DND)
  • Flavio Volpe (pres of Automotive Parts Manufacturers' Association (APMA) in Canada - more auto parts expertise??)
  • Tabatha Bull (Pres/CEO of Canadian Council for Aboriginal Business)
  • Shahrzad Rafati (CEO of "a global media and technology company" - also done some work in other Team Red gov't appointments)
  • Hassan Yussuff (former Canada Labour Congress pres)
  • Wes Hall (founder/CEO of a "shareholder services and advisory firm" that, among other things, managed Xstrata's takeover of Falconbridge)
  • Martin Caron (head of Union des producteurs agricoles - sounds like the "protect the sector" guy)
  • Brian Topp (Notley's former Chief of Staff): Brian Topp is a political strategist and former Chief of Staff to the Premier of Alberta. He has extensive experience in federal and provincial politics and has been involved in various policy development initiatives.
  • Tim Gitzel (head of Cameco Corporation, one of the world's largest providers of uranium fuel - could be an SK voice for Big Nuke Fuel?)
  • Ambassador Kirsten Hillman (current CAN envoy to US)
LATE ADD: Unless one of these folks are Indigenous, that group seems to be missing in the mix, much to the consternation of some.
Tabitha Bull is indigenous.

 
I remember hearing a comment once on CGAI's Energy Security Cubed podcast that has stuck with me. The statement was something along the lines of "we don't export energy to the United States, we export jobs".

The oil and natural gas we export to the United States feeds American refineries which produce the fuels the US uses to feed its own economy as well as export to the rest of the World. Similarly, the electricity we export to the States powers their manufacturing industries and the raw materials we export allow them to build the products that drive their economy. The same argument can be made for the manufactured components we produce for their automotive and other industries.

To my mind this is the argument that we should be pushing with the incoming US administration as well as the Senators, members of Congress, State Governors, etc. of all the States who's industries we feed. At the same time we continue to address their security concerns (which we should be doing anyway for our own sakes).


This is probably the clearest statement of our problems I have seen.

Historically, Medicine Hat has been known for its large natural gas fields, being immortalized by Rudyard Kipling as having "all hell for a basement". Because of these reserves, the city is known as "The Gas City".
Rich in natural resources including natural gas, coal, clay, and farmland, the town became industrialized and was known in its early days as "the Pittsburgh of the West”. A number of large industries located here, attracted by the cheap and plentiful energy resources. Coal mines, brick works, pottery and glass bottle manufacturing plants, flour mills, etc. became established. Altaglass, an art and functional glass production company operated in Medicine Hat from 1950 to 1988

Cheap energy built Medicine Hat and, latterly, the Alberta and Canadian economies.

Who was the dumfuck that decided it was a good idea to lock that advantage away and chuck the key? Same geezer that decided to lock down Europe's coal mines and gas deposits?

We have cheap energy, if we want to use it. The cheapest energy per gigajoule is probably the one that is easiest, and safest, to transport. The one that the Chinese are building their economy on. Coal.

If the Swedes can burn their trash downtown in a safe and environmentally sound manner, while scrounging every last joule of energy out of the furnace, then we could do the same.

All hail the scrubber.

...

Why is coal so cheap? Because the price has been driven down by political campaigns.
 
Indigenous for indigenous’ sake would be meaningless tokenism.

I don’t see any voice for our oil and gas industry, and that’s a problem.
Looks like a Nepotism/Patronage fest to me.


The business representation is pathetic....
 
Tallest on the right, shortest on the left, around the table .... CONVENE!
From the PM's info-machine ....
View attachment 90536
Oh wow. A complete list of connected has-beens. We’re fooked.
 
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