I have followed US politics fairly closely for a couple of decades now and remember several presidential elections in which the eventual losers were convinced they were going to win by the enthusiasm of their rally goers or the number of yard signs. Those are not useful indicators.
Poilievre has to stop sounding like someone who is vaguely (let alone explicitly) dissatisfied with Canada and Canadian society and an unhappy warrior. And he has to stop competing with the other parties on giveaways and more spending. They will always out-bid conservatives as long as conservatives are being honest. And when conservatives are not being honest, it shows.
Whatever his faults, Carney looks like a serious person who belongs in rooms full of serious people talking about serious things. Poilievre has to look like he belongs there, too. Every cheap shot Poilievre or a lieutenant takes makes him look like he belongs at a kids' table. The CPC has to stop the f*cking "gotcha"; it almost always turns out to be based on incorrect or incomplete facts anyways.