US Election: 2016

[cupper]

The polls now only are worth looking at starting after the conventions.

Meh. I'd say that they really aren't worth a damn until September / October.

 

[cupper]

The Trump campaign operation seems to be waaaay behind where it needs to be at this time in the cycle. Only 30 paid staffers for a national campaign. Only $1.3 million in the bank at the end of May. An organization that seems to be feeding on itself. Zero spending on commercial time in June (which actually would be a good thing and get votes in my opinion). Slipping poll numbers since clinching the nomination (although this says more about primary vs general electorate)

This raises some interesting speculation  :Tin-Foil-Hat:  regarding a) whether he is serious about the race, b) what his real net worth actually is, c) whether he is capable of running a national campaign or d) just how bad can this get.

Trump's puny war chest rattles GOP
'I have a state Senate client that has more in the bank,' said one Republican operative.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/donald-trump-money-republicans-224607


Dismissed Trump adviser bashes Lewandowski

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/lewandowski-caputo-trump-staff-224631


Trump getting crushed by Clinton money machine
The presumptive GOP nominee reported just $1.3 million in cash on hand.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/scrawny-trump-campaign-sputters-into-general-224580


Trump on campaign funding: There's 'unlimited' cash
The presumptive GOP nominee said he's not concerned about his fundraising deficit to Hillary Clinton.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/trump-fundraising-response-224598


RNC blasts ‘false narrative’ on Trump finances

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/trump-fundraising-rnc-response-224602


Swing-state polls: Trump slipping in Florida, Ohio

http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/06/trump-florida-ohio-battleground-polls-224568


There Is No Donald Trump Campaign
Firing your campaign manager is not a big deal when there’s nothing to manage.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/06/donald_trump_s_invisible_campaign.html

As of Monday morning, the Trump campaign doesn’t have a manager. “The Donald J. Trump Campaign for President, which has set a historic record in the Republican Primary having received almost 14 million votes, has today announced that Corey Lewandowski will no longer be working with the campaign,” spokeswoman Hope Hicks said in a statement to the press. “The campaign is grateful to Corey for his hard work and dedication and we wish him the best in the future.”

It’s tempting to treat this like a genuine shock—a blow that could disrupt Trump’s effort to win the presidency. But two things are true: First, Lewandoski has been a declining presence since Trump captured the nomination in May, increasingly overshadowed by campaign chairman Paul Manafort. And with Lewandowski gone, explained one Trump ally to Fox News, Manafort is “totally in charge.”

And the second thing? To suggest the Trump campaign is hurt by Lewandowski’s departure is to assume a campaign exists. The truth is, there is no Donald Trump campaign.

This isn’t a matter of metaphysics; I mean this in a literal sense. Consider campaign staff. At this point in a presidential cycle, the presumptive nominees of both parties have begun to construct a field operation meant to identify supporters, train volunteers, and prepare for the tough work of bringing voters to the polls. By the time Mitt Romney entered June—after extinguishing Rick Santorum’s challenge from the right—he had more than a dozen offices open in Ohio and at least 89 paid staffers for his national campaign. By November, Romney had opened nearly 300 offices nationwide and employed more than 400 people. Team Obama invested even more in offices and personnel, with nearly 800 field locations and over 900 paid staffers.

How much staff has Donald Trump hired? At last count, the Trump campaign has roughly 30 staffers nationwide. By comparison, Team Clinton has hired 50 people in Ohio alone. Even if it’s still early in the cycle, a typical campaign would have several senior staff members in place in most, if not all, contested states. Trump has close to none. And while the Republican National Committee has people on the ground in swing states and other vital areas, they’re focused on the entire ticket. Trump needs dedicated, professional help and he doesn’t have it. He seems to be waiting until July, at the earliest, to determine hiring and placement.

What about advertising? Paid television is part and parcel of modern campaigning and can have real—albeit temporary—effects on the race. In their book The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election, political scientists John Sides and Lynn Vavreck fnd that, all things equal, a candidate airing one additional ad per capita over an opponent gains an advantage of almost 1 extra point in public polling, compared with a market where candidates are at parity in advertising. Likewise, a candidate with two additional ads per capita gains two extra points compared with the baseline.

At last count, the Trump campaign has roughly 30 staffers nationwide. By comparison, Team Clinton has hired 50 people in Ohio alone.
But it’s hard to sustain these advantages across time; eventually, the other side catches up. Which means that in the long term, these effects decay as neither side holds a durable advantage, and neither can shift the game through ads alone. Team Obama’s $45 million ad buys in June 2012 was matched, in turn, by Team Romney’s $38 million response. Any effect of the former was moderated and even canceled out by the latter.

Trump may not have a ground game, but is he fighting on the airwaves, matching Clinton or even trying to harm her standing? Not at all. As of Sunday, Team Clinton has put more than $23 million into advertising across eight swing states: Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Iowa, and New Hampshire. (Pennsylvania’s omission is curious.) Team Trump has nothing. Not a single dollar. Clinton is spending millions to rehabilitate her image and attack Trump, with nothing to deal with in the way of pushback.

Exacerbating all of this, for Trump, is that he’s broke: Trump has just $2.4 million in the campaign coffers. Put differently, Clinton’s ad buy is nearly 10 times as large as what Trump has on hand for his entire operation. Trump could raise money, but reports say he’s uninterested in calling donors and other contributors.

If you follow enough election coverage, you’ll notice a phrase from those inclined to read and absorb political science: “Campaigns don’t matter.” The idea is that the twists and turns of the horse race are less important than the broad “fundamentals” of an election year: unemployment, economic growth, foreign conflict, etc. What’s key is the mechanism behind the slogan. It’s not that campaigns are useless; it’s that—in general—they’re evenly matched, so they cancel each other out. When they aren’t—Obama’s ground game vs. Romney’s, for instance—they don’t.

What happens when one side has a campaign and the other doesn’t? When one side is mobilizing voters, contacting supporters, and persuading independents, and the other is sitting on its hands? Cable news has done a lot for Donald Trump, but it can’t raise money or organize volunteers. What happens when it’s September and Trump lacks the personnel or the cash to mount a credible fight against the Democratic Party?

I don’t know. No one knows, because it’s never happened before. But if the polls are any indication, what happens is something like a catastrophic defeat for Trump and the rest of the Republican Party. And of all possible outcomes in this election, that’s the most fitting. Trump built his career by talking and grifting his way into some facsimile of success, before losing it to his own arrogance and narcissism. If nothing else, a historic defeat in November will fit the pattern.

 

[Brad Sallows]

I doubt Trump really wants to win, because I doubt he really changed his spots.  If he still, deep down, is mostly Democratic-leaning and Clinton-supporting, he exceeded expectations if all he meant to do was keep the Republican nomination messy to help Clinton along.

If he looks like a guy who is throwing the election, the simplest explanation is that he is a guy who wants to throw the election.

 

[a_majoor]

Given how far in the tank the US Legacy media is in for the Democrats, I would be quite sceptical about anything being published WRT the election campaign.

 

[tomahawk6]

An astute observation Thucydides.

 

[CougarKing]

Let's see if he even gets elected first...

Associated Press

Trump details goals for first 100 days in White House
[By Jill Colvin, The Associated Press]

June 23, 2016

NEW YORK, N.Y. - Donald Trump delivered a scathing speech aimed at undercutting Democratic rival Hillary Clinton on Wednesday, but the presumptive GOP nominee also took some time to sketch out some of his top priorities if he's elected to the White House.

"There is one common theme in all of these reforms: It's going to be America first," Trump said of his priorities.

A quick look at what Trump said he hopes to accomplish in the first 100 days of his administration, with some details on the challenges he'll face to do so:


(...SNIPPED)

 

[CougarKing]

Trump tries to draw parallels between Brexit and the upcoming US election:

Business Insider

Donald Trump cheers Brexit: 'They took their country back, just like we will take America back'

Pamela Engel


Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump was quick to praise the decision of British voters Thursday to leave the European Union, drawing parallels to his own campaign.

Trump, who is visiting Scotland, sent out a statement and a series of tweets Friday morning about the referendum result.

"Just arrived in Scotland. Place is going wild over the vote," Trump tweeted. "They took their country back, just like we will take America back. No games!"

(...SNIPPED)

 

[tomahawk6]

There is a parallel and it is the blue collar guy.He/she is tired of the politicians intruding into their lives.

 

[FJAG]

Trump tries to draw parallels between Brexit and the upcoming US election:

. . . "Trump, who is visiting Scotland, sent out a statement and a series of tweets Friday morning about the referendum result.

"Just arrived in Scotland. Place is going wild over the vote," Trump tweeted. "They took their country back, just like we will take America back. No games!""

Business Insider

Interesting when one notes that in Scotland the vote was about 62% in favour of staying in the EU and there is now serious talk of Scotland once again having a referendum for independence and a possible return to be an EU member.

Here's a quick link to Gawker that, amongst many other articles, shows just how weak a grasp Trump has on the Brexit issue.

:cheers:
http://gawker.com/donald-trump-is-stoked-about-brexit-also-on-an-unrelat-1782555907

 

[Rocky Mountains]

Interesting when one notes that in Scotland the vote was about 62% in favour of staying in the EU and there is now serious talk of Scotland once again having a referendum for independence and a possible return to be an EU member.

So Scotland would gain its independence from a democratically ruled UK only to surrender it to unelected goosestepping European bureaucrats.

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

Trump:

"They took their country back, just like we will take America back. No games!"

Does he mean he'll hold a referendum to see if the US wants to leave from the rest of the world?

 

[FJAG]

So Scotland would gain its independence from a democratically ruled UK only to surrender it to unelected goosestepping European bureaucrats.

:nod:

On the plus side the Scots have had an affinity for the French since the days of the Jacobites. But then maybe I'm watching too many "Outlander" episodes.  ;D

:cheers:

 

[Kirkhill]

:nod:

On the plus side the Scots have had an affinity for the French since the days of the Jacobites. But then maybe I'm watching too many "Outlander" episodes.  ;D

:cheers:

Not quite:

The French have had an affinity for the Scots since they took on the job of keeping the French King safe from the French.

French Body Guard.


The French did agree to aid and assist the Scots in 1295 but mainly got around to it whenever it suited them.  They quit their formal association with the Scots at Leith in 1560 (a particularly bad year for Paris all around).  Strangely enough the Bourbons only really became interested in "assisting" the Scots once the Hanoverians were on the throne.  The French created the Jacobite cause.

 

[CougarKing]

Can Clinton ever escape the shadow of email gate/server gate?

Associated Press

Clinton failed to hand over key email to State Department
Michael Biesecker, The Associated Press
June 24, 2016
WASHINGTON - Former Secretary Hillary Clinton failed to turn over a copy of a key message involving problems caused by her use of a private homebrew email server, the State Department confirmed Thursday. The disclosure makes it unclear what other work-related emails may have been deleted by the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee.

The email was included within messages exchanged Nov. 13, 2010, between Clinton and one of her closest aides, Deputy Chief of Staff Huma Abedin. At the time, emails sent from Clinton's BlackBerry device and routed through her private clintonemail.com server in the basement of her New York home were being blocked by the State Department's spam filter. A suggested remedy was for Clinton to obtain a state.gov email account.

"Let's get separate address or device but I don't want any risk of the personal being accessible," Clinton responded to Abedin.
(...SNIPPED)

 

[CougarKing]

What's this, cupper? Trump actually toning down? Say it ain't so.  [

Wall Street Journal

Donald Trump Back-Pedals on Banning Muslims From U.S.
Republican candidate moves toward more nuanced policy targeting countries with record of terrorism
By Beth Reinhard and
Damian Paletta
Updated June 27, 2016 5:03 p.m. ET

Donald Trump appears to be backing away from one of his signature and most controversial proposals—banning Muslims from entering the US, as polls show him slightly behind Hillary Clinton.

(...SNIPPED)

 

[cupper]

What's this, cupper? Trump actually toning down? Say it ain't so.  [

Wall Street Journal

Nah. A phenomenal intellect such as Donald Trump is often misunderstood by the common man. It's simply a clarification so lesser minds can have a clearer picture of what he really meant.  ;D

 

[cupper]

In response to the bombing at Ataturk Airport in Istanbul, Trump in a speech tonight in St. Clairsville, Ohio is using his standard dog whistle of "Something is going on ..." and is raising his call to go back to the use of torture, and maybe even step it up a notch and use the same tactics that ISIS uses.

 

[cupper]

Trump's move to the left on trade seems to have lost him the support of the US Chamber of Commerce and other corporate interest groups, traditional GOP backers and sources of financial donations and PAC money. This could be a bad move on his part, even though it appeals to his base.

Chamber of Commerce rips Trump's trade speech in real time
As Trump spoke, the organization posted a point-by-point rebuttal on social media.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/trump-trade-speech-chamber-of-commerce-reaction-224900

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce answered Donald Trump's trade policy speech on Tuesday by attempting to pick apart the presumptive Republican nominee's policies point by point, engaging in a rapid-fire succession of social media posts hitting him for his opposition to international trade deals.

In a post published before Trump took to the stage at a raw aluminum producer in Monessen, Pennsylvania, the chamber laid out the stakes for trade in both Pennsylvania and in Ohio. (The Republican is set to hold a rally in St. Clairsville, Ohio later Tuesday evening.)

"Trade is no panacea. Some workers lose their jobs to international competition, just as technological change and shifting consumer tastes regularly put some manufacturers out of business," wrote John G. Murphy, the chamber's senior vice president for international policy. "It’s appropriate for the federal government to provide these workers with training and transition assistance — and of a better quality than current federal programs."

"But contrary to rumor, the benefits of trade greatly outweigh the costs," Murphy wrote. "In fact, trade has been a lifeline for many more workers in Pennsylvania and Ohio — especially in the wake of the recession."

During Trump's address, Murphy tweeted, "US companies invest abroad to tap cheap labor? Actually ... " sharing a link to a Chamber LinkedIn article headlined "The 10 Most Overlooked Facts About International Investment."

The Chamber then shared another one of Murphy's articles from May, titled "The NAFTA the Candidates Haven't Met," following up with multiple tweets touting the benefits of the trade agreement with Mexico and Canada.

As Trump pilloried the Trans-Pacific Partnership, an agreement with which Hillary Clinton also disagrees, the Chamber's Twitter account shared multiple benefits for the trade deal.

"Under Trump's trade plans, we would see higher prices, fewer jobs, and a weaker economy," another tweet read, with another re-upping its analysis that Trump's proposed tariffs "would strip us of at least 3.5 million jobs."

The Chamber later shared an article from May headlined "Point and Counterpoint on Trade: Responding to Trump, Sanders, Clinton," which concluded that "there’s a gulf between what the candidates are saying about trade and the facts."

Trump's speech also drew blowback from the National Association of Manufacturers.

".@realDonaldTrump you have it backward. Trade is GOOD for #mfg workers & #jobs. Let’s #MakeAmericaTradeAgain," Jay Timmons, the president and CEO of the association tweeted during the speech.

 

[cupper]

This explains A LOT    [

Warning: House office water tainted with lead

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/house-office-water-unsafe-to-drink-224913

A House office’s water supply has been tainted by high lead levels and may be unsafe, according to a warning blasted out to congressional offices Tuesday night.

In a “dear colleagues” letter, House office buildings superintendent William Weidemeyer told members and staff that the Cannon House Office Building was experiencing lead levels above normal, according to a recent water test.

“This week, the AOC received results within the Cannon House Office Building that indicate lead levels in drinking water sources are slightly above the EPA standard,” the email reads. “Although the cause of the increase remains under investigation, in an abundance of caution all drinking water sources and office-provided water filtration units in the building will be turned off beginning at 10 p.m. Tuesday, June 28, 2016.”

The office will be providing bottled water for drinking.

“We regret this inconvenience and appreciate your continued support as we strive to maintain and improve our facilities,” the letter says. “The AOC considers the health and safety of the congressional community to be of utmost priority.”

 

[cupper]

FINALLY!

They started running anti Hillary superPAC ads in my market. It's about time. I was wondering if Christmas was ever gonna come. Getting bored of the anti Trump ads.

:rofl: :nana: