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Ukraine - Superthread

KevinB

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The ISW Ukraine map still shows no change on Kinburn.

Most OS Maps are 48Plus hours out of date.

Some still have eliminated (or effectively eliminated) formations on the map that ceases to exist a week ago.
 

Skysix

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The fact that it is being discussed is probably deliberate maskirovka. The last time they said they were going to attack Kerson then used that chatter to fix troops there and enable breakthroughs in the north. So.... Lets do that again assuming that the Russians will conclude that they are deliberately allowing the information out there to once again fix them in defensive positions near Kerson so they can once again go after logistics hubs in the north.

But crafty as the "Orcs" are they see right through this simple plan so this time will move units north to be ready and surprise/defeat the simple "Hohols" - a strategy that nicely proves the wisdom of high command already shifting combat power northwards.

Psych!

Instead while they reconstitute/refresh and shift units and capabilities around heavy SF and light infantry probing raids by land and sea ostensibly fixing some Russians in place but just as likely battlefield recce and targeting for the new MLRS and locating a defensible/suppliable place for a FOB from which to continue pressure on Crimea (rather than the obvious rolling down the East bank with a combined arms force defensive line by defensive line in another meatgrinder)

Controlling the river mouth and in range of Sevastopol would be the goal as part of the next step of setting conditions for the spring.

Out of curiosity how far south does the Dneiper freeze over, by when, to what ice strength, and could that be reinforced 'ice road' style and used as a land bridge in Feb? Met a lot of Ukrainian Canadians in the NWT and northern Prairies familiar with that type of construction...
 

FJAG

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Most OS Maps are 48Plus hours out of date.

Some still have eliminated (or effectively eliminated) formations on the map that ceases to exist a week ago.
That's still bloody amazing all things considered. When have we ever seen this much or this detailed OS information about an ongoing conflict?

🍻
 

KevinB

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That's still bloody amazing all things considered. When have we ever seen this much or this detailed OS information about an ongoing conflict?

🍻
Totally agreed. The Open Source Intelligence world has been remarkable in this conflict.
Some of it to a fairly worrying aspect from an OPSEC standpoint.

I’ve also noticed that some of the commercial ‘real-time’ geospatial sources are now delaying updated satellite footage by 24hr or more. So clearly some of the host governments are leaning on them to delay data release in some cases which makes OSI tougher.
 

KevinB

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on open source losses, looks like Oryx has some work to do to catch up on Russian equipment losses. How do they or can they identify individual pieces of equipment in a yard though?
Depending on the resolution of the images, and what sort of software they have it can be fairly easy with image comparison software - or a painstakingly manual input into a database then sifting out multiple entries.
 

daftandbarmy

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Winding up for a right hook....


Ukraine launches assault to gain strategic foothold on occupied side of Dnipro river​


Control of the Kinburn Spit allows for dominance of the Dnipro river entrance and the ports of Kherson and Mykolaiv

Ukraine’s military has launched a “silent” assault on the strategic Kinburn Spit as its Kherson counteroffensive enters a new phase.

Captain Natalia Humeniuk, a spokesperson for the southern command of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, on Tuesday said the operation to liberate the small, sandy peninsula was underway amid reports it had already been recaptured by Ukrainian forces.

“The most important thing is that the operation continues, and we continue our fight against the enemy,” she said.

The Kinburn Spit is a small strip of land formed where the Dnipro River meets the Black Sea.

The outcrop is strategically important because it gives whoever holds it control over the entrance to the Dnipro river, which bisects Ukraine, as well as the ports of Kherson and Mykolaiv.

Vitalii Kim, Mkyolaiv’s governor, said three settlements on the peninsula needed to be liberated before his region is entirely freed from Russia.

Before the war, the spit was popular with tourists but has since been used by Russian forces to conduct routine artillery and missile strikes on Ukrainian-held territories.

It was used by Moscow to target tug boats and grain barges operating in the mouth of the Dnipro River, according to Ukraine’s military.

Ukraine’s southern operational command has previously described the area as the “focus of the enemy’s life force, weapons and equipment”.

Images have been shared on social media appearing to show Ukrainian troops operating in the Dnipro, suggesting they are launching amphibious assaults on the area.

On Tuesday she claimed the storming conditions around the peninsula had prevented Russian forces from gaining a foothold on the Kinburn Spit.

“The sea helps us. The enemy cannot gain a foothold there because the Ukrainian Armed Forces inflict damage on the enemy’s points,” she added.

Western military analysts claim recapturing the peninsula would give Ukraine’s forces a staging post for future operations on the left bank of the Dnipro, where Russia withdrew its forces after ceding control of the southern city of Kherson.

The Institute for the Study of War, a US-based think-tank, said: “Control of the Kinburn Spit would allow Ukrainian forces to relieve Russian strikes on the Ukrainian-controlled Black Sea coast, increase naval activity in the area, and conduct potential operations to cross to the left (east) bank in Kherson Oblast under significantly less Russian artillery fire compared to a crossing of the Dnipro River.”

Meanwhile, Russia started a mobilisation drive in occupied Crimea amid mounting fears Ukraine could advance on the region it illegally annexed in 2014.

Ukraine’s military reported that men in Crimea have received mobilisation papers despite Russian president Vladimir Putin ordering an end to mobilisation in the rest of the country.

“In Crimea, a covert mobilisation to bolster the ranks of occupying forces is ongoing,” it said.

Analysts have said that the Kremlin’s call-up drive has largely been supplied by Russia’s far-flung provinces.

Sergey Melikov, the governor of Dagestan, on Tuesday weighed into the debate with a rare public criticism of the mobilisation, saying on a Telegram video that it was shameful that top Kremlin officials had not sent their sons to fight in Ukraine in a war that they had said was vital to win for Russia’s survival.

Kremlin-installed authorities in Crimea said the peninsula came under attack by drones on Tuesday.

Mikhail Razvozhayev, the governor of the Sevastopol administrative region, said two drones were shot down and urged residents to “remain calm”.

Crimea’s Moscow-appointed governor said last week that Russia’s defences were being strengthened there as Kyiv’s forces continued to reclaim territory in neighbouring Kherson.

 

Colin Parkinson

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Winding up for a right hook....


Ukraine launches assault to gain strategic foothold on occupied side of Dnipro river​


Control of the Kinburn Spit allows for dominance of the Dnipro river entrance and the ports of Kherson and Mykolaiv

Ukraine’s military has launched a “silent” assault on the strategic Kinburn Spit as its Kherson counteroffensive enters a new phase.

Captain Natalia Humeniuk, a spokesperson for the southern command of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, on Tuesday said the operation to liberate the small, sandy peninsula was underway amid reports it had already been recaptured by Ukrainian forces.

“The most important thing is that the operation continues, and we continue our fight against the enemy,” she said.

The Kinburn Spit is a small strip of land formed where the Dnipro River meets the Black Sea.

The outcrop is strategically important because it gives whoever holds it control over the entrance to the Dnipro river, which bisects Ukraine, as well as the ports of Kherson and Mykolaiv.

Vitalii Kim, Mkyolaiv’s governor, said three settlements on the peninsula needed to be liberated before his region is entirely freed from Russia.

Before the war, the spit was popular with tourists but has since been used by Russian forces to conduct routine artillery and missile strikes on Ukrainian-held territories.

It was used by Moscow to target tug boats and grain barges operating in the mouth of the Dnipro River, according to Ukraine’s military.

Ukraine’s southern operational command has previously described the area as the “focus of the enemy’s life force, weapons and equipment”.

Images have been shared on social media appearing to show Ukrainian troops operating in the Dnipro, suggesting they are launching amphibious assaults on the area.

On Tuesday she claimed the storming conditions around the peninsula had prevented Russian forces from gaining a foothold on the Kinburn Spit.

“The sea helps us. The enemy cannot gain a foothold there because the Ukrainian Armed Forces inflict damage on the enemy’s points,” she added.

Western military analysts claim recapturing the peninsula would give Ukraine’s forces a staging post for future operations on the left bank of the Dnipro, where Russia withdrew its forces after ceding control of the southern city of Kherson.

The Institute for the Study of War, a US-based think-tank, said: “Control of the Kinburn Spit would allow Ukrainian forces to relieve Russian strikes on the Ukrainian-controlled Black Sea coast, increase naval activity in the area, and conduct potential operations to cross to the left (east) bank in Kherson Oblast under significantly less Russian artillery fire compared to a crossing of the Dnipro River.”

Meanwhile, Russia started a mobilisation drive in occupied Crimea amid mounting fears Ukraine could advance on the region it illegally annexed in 2014.

Ukraine’s military reported that men in Crimea have received mobilisation papers despite Russian president Vladimir Putin ordering an end to mobilisation in the rest of the country.

“In Crimea, a covert mobilisation to bolster the ranks of occupying forces is ongoing,” it said.

Analysts have said that the Kremlin’s call-up drive has largely been supplied by Russia’s far-flung provinces.

Sergey Melikov, the governor of Dagestan, on Tuesday weighed into the debate with a rare public criticism of the mobilisation, saying on a Telegram video that it was shameful that top Kremlin officials had not sent their sons to fight in Ukraine in a war that they had said was vital to win for Russia’s survival.

Kremlin-installed authorities in Crimea said the peninsula came under attack by drones on Tuesday.

Mikhail Razvozhayev, the governor of the Sevastopol administrative region, said two drones were shot down and urged residents to “remain calm”.

Crimea’s Moscow-appointed governor said last week that Russia’s defences were being strengthened there as Kyiv’s forces continued to reclaim territory in neighbouring Kherson.

Much of it will be in range of Ukrainian artillery, so likley untenable for Russian defenders.
 

daftandbarmy

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Much of it will be in range of Ukrainian artillery, so likley untenable for Russian defenders.

In various non-operational scenarios I recall that we scooted whole rifle companies along various coastlines in landing craft, usually at night, well past supposedly highly alert ENFOR without being seen or challenged.

It always amazed me how easy that was to do. We always managed an unopposed landing that surprised the bad guys.

I have no idea why, but obviously assume it's harder to do when the ball ammo gets loaded.
 

Kirkhill

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In various non-operational scenarios I recall that we scooted whole rifle companies along various coastlines in landing craft, usually at night, well past supposedly highly alert ENFOR without being seen or challenged.

It always amazed me how easy that was to do. We always managed an unopposed landing that surprised the bad guys.

I have no idea why, but obviously assume it's harder to do when the ball ammo gets loaded.

But perhaps not harder when the "defenders" are so wrapped up in their own misery that even a grenade in their trench can't motivate them?
 

Czech_pivo

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Only when on the defensive…
Keep in mind a lot of the USSR’s valiant warriors of WW2 were Ukrainian.
In this conflict USSR 2.0 is playing the part of Nazi Germany…
Unfortunately no one bothered to inform the Russian's they were playing the part of the Nazi's circa winter 1944.
 
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