Trudeau Popularity - or not (various polling, etc.)

[YZT580]

Do you have objective evidence that this is true, or are you simply projecting your own disdain for the NDP and what you want to be true?

I think pretty much anyone who’s at all honest about Canadian politics recognizes that there would have to be a tectonic shift for NDP to form government. They’re perpetually an opposition party but almost never the opposition party. The NDP’s ability to deliver its platform to voters stems entirely from its ability to influence legislation. At present, the ability to prop up a Liberal minority places them in the best realistic position to do so.

I think NDP voters will, by and large, see their success in some of the social programs that have been rolled out. Clearly the supply and confidence agreement is one of quid pro quo, and through it the NDP are achieving things they’d be very unlikely to achieve otherwise. Supporting the LPC, for a price, is pure pragmatism and sound politics for a party in their position.

You’re not the NDP’s target audience, but you’ve calibrated your opinion as if you are. That’s an error.

you are assuming something that isn't true with regards my opinion of the NDP; its their leader I can't stand. He is as much a Mister Dressup as Justin. But that is beside the point. The NDP may not ever rise again to the lofty level of official opposition but now is their best chance. Their support for Trudeau got some results for their agenda but, like a small force raiding party the trick is to know when to cut and run and that time for them is either here now or rapidly approaching. As for objective evidence, I am looking at history. There are two left leaning parties in Canada. One is becoming or at least appears to becoming toxic to the voters. That leaves the other. This is what happened a decade ago. Could it happen again, I don't know but any hope of taking second place in parliament will vanish if they can't be distinguished from the liberals.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Do you have objective evidence that this is true, or are you simply projecting your own disdain for the NDP and what you want to be true?

I think pretty much anyone who’s at all honest about Canadian politics recognizes that there would have to be a tectonic shift for NDP to form government. They’re perpetually an opposition party but almost never the opposition party. The NDP’s ability to deliver its platform to voters stems entirely from its ability to influence legislation. At present, the ability to prop up a Liberal minority places them in the best realistic position to do so.

I think NDP voters will, by and large, see their success in some of the social programs that have been rolled out. Clearly the supply and confidence agreement is one of quid pro quo, and through it the NDP are achieving things they’d be very unlikely to achieve otherwise. Supporting the LPC, for a price, is pure pragmatism and sound politics for a party in their position.

You’re not the NDP’s target audience, but you’ve calibrated your opinion as if you are. That’s an error.

Under Thomas Mulcair they had their best chance of increasing their seats and influence for the long term. but the internal party politics bladed him and returned to their Champagne Socialist path. When I met PP awhile ago I said "Cut the union workers out of the NDP". If he can do that, it will be fatal to the NDP. The union management are generally socialists, but the workers in many unions are far from it.

 

[RangerRay]

you are assuming something that isn't true with regards my opinion of the NDP; its their leader I can't stand. He is as much a Mister Dressup as Justin. But that is beside the point.

You do realize that he is a legitimate Sikh and practices Sikhism which instructs him to wear a turban, right? That’s like saying a Jew wearing a yarmulke is “playing dress-up”.

The NDP may not ever rise again to the lofty level of official opposition but now is their best chance. Their support for Trudeau got some results for their agenda but, like a small force raiding party the trick is to know when to cut and run and that time for them is either here now or rapidly approaching. As for objective evidence, I am looking at history. There are two left leaning parties in Canada. One is becoming or at least appears to becoming toxic to the voters. That leaves the other. This is what happened a decade ago. Could it happen again, I don't know but any hope of taking second place in parliament will vanish if they can't be distinguished from the liberals.

The problem for the NDP is the Liberals are eating their lunch, ideologically speaking. There are no reasons for NDP voters to vote NDP for ideology, and lots for them to vote Liberal to prevent Poilievre from forming government. The NDP know that which is why they won’t pull the trigger on their agreement with the Liberals. They’re fooked and they know it.

 

[YZT580]

You do realize that he is a legitimate Sikh and practices Sikhism which instructs him to wear a turban, right? That’s like saying a Jew wearing a yarmulke is “playing dress-up”.

The problem for the NDP is the Liberals are eating their lunch, ideologically speaking. There are no reasons for NDP voters to vote NDP for ideology, and lots for them to vote Liberal to prevent Poilievre from forming government. The NDP know that which is why they won’t pull the trigger on their agreement with the Liberals. They’re fooked and they know it.

Not referring to his national dress at such but the silk suits and glitzy watches. Just as Trudeau goes beyond normal to show he is cool so too does Singh to demonstrate that he is indeed a Sikh. As for RR's comment, the NDP have a chance at snaring left-leaning liberal votes but not if they haven't presented a moral alternative. Right now I can envision the lefties just not voting. they won't cast a ballot for PP regardless but they also won't vote for Trudeau. Bailing on the liberals would give Singh or the NDP without him, a fighting chance at these votes and there are probably a lot of them

 

[RangerRay]

As for RR's comment, the NDP have a chance at snaring left-leaning liberal votes but not if they haven't presented a moral alternative. Right now I can envision the lefties just not voting. they won't cast a ballot for PP regardless but they also won't vote for Trudeau. Bailing on the liberals would give Singh or the NDP without him, a fighting chance at these votes and there are probably a lot of them

I don’t see that. Lefties hate the Tories, and PP especially, so much that they would crawl on broken glass to vote Liberal if it meant preventing a Tory government.

Also remember that while the Tories are polling well now, PP’s negatives are sky high and we’re still two years from an election. The Liberal propaganda bus hasn’t even warmed up yet to fear monger and remind voters of some Tories’, including PP’s, less…enlightened comments.

The Liberals view themselves, much like the Republicans in the US, as fighting the “forces of darkness”. When one is fighting what they consider “forces of darkness”, the niceties of ethics and liberalism get tossed out the window.

 

[YZT580]

I don’t see that. Lefties hate the Tories, and PP especially, so much that they would crawl on broken glass to vote Liberal if it meant preventing a Tory government.

Also remember that while the Tories are polling well now, PP’s negatives are sky high and we’re still two years from an election. The Liberal propaganda bus hasn’t even warmed up yet to fear monger and remind voters of some Tories’, including PP’s, less…enlightened comments.

The Liberals view themselves, much like the Republicans in the US, as fighting the “forces of darkness”. When one is fighting what they consider “forces of darkness”, the niceties of ethics and liberalism get tossed out the window.

last word? Only time will tell. I dropped my political chrystal ball years ago

 

[ArmyRick]

I don’t see that. Lefties hate the Tories, and PP especially, so much that they would crawl on broken glass to vote Liberal if it meant preventing a Tory government.

Also remember that while the Tories are polling well now, PP’s negatives are sky high and we’re still two years from an election. The Liberal propaganda bus hasn’t even warmed up yet to fear monger and remind voters of some Tories’, including PP’s, less…enlightened comments.

The Liberals view themselves, much like the Republicans in the US, as fighting the “forces of darkness”. When one is fighting what they consider “forces of darkness”, the niceties of ethics and liberalism get tossed out the window.

Very much disagree with your view. I refer back time and time again to the Kathleen effect. Clear majority government to not even a party.

Canadians, even the radical left love you until they don't. Especially when the cost of living is prohibitive. I think @YZT580 is correct. I suspect the far left leaning will simply abstain from voting. The ones I know, refuse at this point to support anyone.

 

[Haggis]

I have recently started to warm up about PP, with his updated look and feel. If he continues on his current tack and can maintain discipline in the CPC he may make some significant headway. However, if JT sreps down and a new popular and well branded LPC leader takes the helm, all bets are off.

 

[ArmyRick]

Very much disagree with your view. I refer back time and time again to the Kathleen effect. Clear majority government to not even a party.

Canadians, even the radical left love you until they don't. Especially when the cost of living is prohibitive. I think @YZT580 is correct. I suspect the far left leaning will simply abstain from voting. The ones I know, refuse at this point to support anyone.

Kathleen Wynne effect it should say

 

[Kirkhill]

Very much disagree with your view. I refer back time and time again to the Kathleen effect. Clear majority government to not even a party.

Canadians, even the radical left love you until they don't. Especially when the cost of living is prohibitive. I think @YZT580 is correct. I suspect the far left leaning will simply abstain from voting. The ones I know, refuse at this point to support anyone.

In addition the "radical left" have rediscovered "street theatre" recently. They are not constrained to fight through the ballot box. A non-left government merely presents more opportunities to express themselves.

 

[Remius]

I have recently started to warm up about PP, with his updated look and feel. If he continues on his current tack and can maintain discipline in the CPC he may make some significant headway. However, if JT sreps down and a new popular and well branded LPC leader takes the helm, all bets are off.

First test is the policy convention. There are rumblings coming from parts of the party that want to bring forward motions on gender identity issues.

 

[Halifax Tar]

I have recently started to warm up about PP, with his updated look and feel. If he continues on his current tack and can maintain discipline in the CPC he may make some significant headway. However, if JT sreps down and a new popular and well branded LPC leader takes the helm, all bets are off.

I will preface this with biases admitted.

I am not sure a change of leadership will help the LPC. I don't see much love for recent liberal polices, and unless they can figure out a way to give some pay cheque value back to people I don't see a new face righting that ship.

Yes JT has become a terribly polarizing and divisive figure, but I think we are facing a protest vote. Will it equate to CPC majority, I am still not convinced. But I think the move away from the LPC has as much to do with policies and their affects as the leader. Out here the carbon tax, or Tax on Everything as its being called, is almost completely despised and really cost the LPC some support.

Everything I read and hear, out this way, points the finger not just at JT but at LPC polices as whole.

 

[Halifax Tar]

First test is the policy convention. There are rumblings coming from parts of the party that want to bring forward motions on gender identity issues.

If that's what they feel is a big issue facing Canadians then go for it I suppose.

 

[Rifleman62]

Could be that the Liberals steal PP's thunder by announcing that they will (temporally) reduce the carbon tax to help "Canadians".

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Could be that the Liberals steal PP's thunder by announcing that they will (temporally) reduce the carbon tax to help "Canadians".

And risk the wrath of the Guilbeault faction? The Liberals are terrified of those folks, I wager.
not gonna happen…

 

[IKnowNothing]

First test is the policy convention. There are rumblings coming from parts of the party that want to bring forward motions on gender identity issues.

Peter McKay hit the nail on the head. There's an easy majority to be had but for that albatross.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Could be that the Liberals steal PP's thunder by announcing that they will (temporally) reduce the carbon tax to help "Canadians".

I think Canadians reached their limit in willingness to accept additional taxation prior to the carbon tax.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Peter McKay hit the nail on the head. There's an easy majority to be had but for that albatross.

Can you expand on this ?

 

[IKnowNothing]

Can you expand on this ?

MacKay blames Conservative election loss on Scheer's social conservatism

One-time and possible future leadership contender Peter MacKay says the "stinking albatross" of Andrew Scheer's social conservative values cost the Conservatives the election.

atlantic.ctvnews.ca

There's a very winnable election based on housing, economic, and foreign policy issues. Stealing American culture war issues to satisfy the portion of the base that thing the CPC is / want the CPC to be GOP North is an easy way to lose it.

 

[ArmyRick]

I have recently started to warm up about PP, with his updated look and feel. If he continues on his current tack and can maintain discipline in the CPC he may make some significant headway. However, if JT sreps down and a new popular and well branded LPC leader takes the helm, all bets are off.

The key is a smart leader to replace JT. If Freeland steps in, I think many people will not take the LPC seriously. If Anand or Lametti step in, they can be a serious threat. I don't like Lametti but he is politically cunning and has some brains.