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Thailand

a_majoor

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While most people really know Thailand as an attractive tourist destination for HLTA, there are many issues simmering beneath the surface. A convulsion in Thailand will certainly have regional implications (much of the economic activity of nations like Viet Nam, Laos and Cambodia are anchored on trade with Thailand), and the Chinese and Indians may also see this as affecting their interests in the region as well:

http://www.the-american-interest.com/articles/2014/01/31/thailands-looming-crisis/

Thailand’s Looming Crisis
PETER MELLGARD, WALTER RUSSELL MEAD

Thailand’s struggles touch on issues that Thais for various reasons don’t like to speak openly and frankly about: the role of the monarchy, the health of the king and ethnic and regional divisions inside the country. But these issues are of the utmost importance.

Published on January 31, 2014
There’s been some interesting reporting from Thailand lately, but the press is still not getting a clear story out. It’s not that reporters are stupid; Thailand is hard to understand, especially for Americans. Thailand is one of those countries where people often speak indirectly if at all about some of the most important issues and foreigners often miss some of the key drivers in Thai politics because of it. The current struggles in the country touch on issues that Thais for various reasons don’t like to speak openly and frankly about: the role of the monarchy, the health of the king and ethnic and regional divisions inside the country. There are also legal restrictions about what you can say about the royal family; as a result even diligent consumers of the reportage on the Thai crisis miss some of the most important dimensions of the historic processes now taking place.

It’s unwise to understate how important King Bhumibol is to modern Thais. When he ascended to the throne in June 1946 he immediately sought to reverse years of decline in the power of the Palace, which had become politically powerless and financially broken. He soon established himself as a beloved figure in the eyes of millions of Thais. Thailand at that time was a mostly rural society: eighty percent of the nation’s citizens lived on small farms or in forests, and their lives revolved around the village and the temple. There was no concept of a modern state. As the country was transformed by a rapidly modernizing world, Thais looked to the King for guidance as they navigated a new and disorientating environment. Many were happy to accept the King’s authority and power over everything from rainfall to scientific development. Over a long and very able reign, the King was able to rebuild the prestige and authority of the throne and continues to enjoy personal power and respect far beyond the limited role that the Thai constitution affords.

The king, the army and the Thai business elite stood together and with the United States during the Cold War. Thailand was the last domino standing when Indochina fell to the communists in the 1970s, and the ties between Thailand and the United States strengthened afterwards as Thailand’s booming economy tied it more closely into the US-based international system.

King Bhumibol, now 86 years old and said to be in poor health, has been on the throne for more than 60 years. Even his critics (and despite Thailand’s very tough laws that make criticizing the King a criminal offense, he has them) concede that his reputation for personal incorruptibility, concern for the poor, and dedication to the Thai people and nation give him a unique stature. No other figure is trusted by as many people to work out compromise solutions and despite the constitutional limits on monarchical power, the king’s soft power (combined with the army’s unswerving loyalty) give him a uniquely powerful role.

Today, the survival of the Thai monarchy is again in jeopardyToday, the survival of the Thai monarchy is again in jeopardy. The 86-year-old Bhumibol is unique and his personal popularity is far greater than other members of the royal family. His son is widely disliked, said to be cruel and a womanizer, disengaged from the country he will one day rule. Bhumibol has been estranged from his wife, Queen Sirikit, whom Thais tend to fear and mistrust, for twenty years. His daughter is a favorite to succeed him but that would violate centuries of tradition. The coming succession crisis, which will pit different Palace factions against populists like former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, powerful elite businessmen and politicians, and the military, will threaten to tear the country apart.

Broadly, the current political crisis consuming Thailand pits the yellow shirts, Bangkok’s middle class and royalist establishment, against the red shirts, the mostly poor farmers and rural supporters of the current prime minister, Yingluck Shinawatra, and her brother Thaksin, who lives in exile after a military coup overthrew his government in 2006. The red shirts favor democracy, because they always win by landslides. The yellow shirts favor the military and the monarchy, because these institutions provide a buffer between educated urban Thais and the masses of rural Shinawatra supporters whom they dislike and consider poor and uneducated. The yellow shirts, led by a “notoriously corrupt” former deputy prime minister named Suthep Thaugsuban, are the ones on the streets of Bangkok these past few weeks protesting against the Yingluck government and preventing people from voting in the early election scheduled for this weekend. Both sides claim to revere King Bhumibol and invoke his name to claim the right to rule the country. The rivalry between yellow and red has simmered for years, but with the King’s reign approaching its final stages, the stakes become much higher and the fight more violent and divisive.

2011_thai_general_election-1
2011 election results. Map by Lindsey Burrows.

There are additional complicating factors. The yellow shirts have their strongest base of political support in southern Thailand and Bangkok. The red shirts are dominant in the north (where Thaksin has his roots) and the northeast. Many in the northeast think of themselves as Lao, and have a culture and history that look across the Mekong to modern Laos more than to Bangkok in the south. There are many in the south who have close ethnic and historic relations with Malaysia. And finally, Thailand has many citizens who are descended from 19th and 20th century immigrants from China. While Thaksin himself is “Sino-Thai”, one of the fault lines in Thai politics is the tension between the often urban, educated and professional Chinese immigrants and the often more rural and less educated Thais. That is not an uncommon area of political tension in the region; in Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia, tension between the descendants of Chinese immigrants and their hosts sometimes flare into violence and always play a significant role in politics. Thaksin’s movement brings together many of the people who feel left out and left behind by what they see as collusion between the old Thai establishment and the successful immigrants. Thaksin’s programs that redistribute money from Bangkok to the rural areas have helped to solidify his support — and to inflame and envenom his opponents.

While the King lives, the prestige and authority of the throne survives. This gives the yellow shirts a trump card against populists like Thaksin. The throne is the yellow shirts’ greatest bulwark against the electoral majorities that Thaksin’s red shirts have enjoyed for years. Even if the king’s heir is among the wisest and greatest of mortals—and, in the opinion of many Thais, the heir would need to grow dramatically as a person to achieve this kind of stature—it would take time for the throne to regain the influence the present king has built up. That means that the end of his reign is full of risk for the yellow shirts, which is why they are pushing so hard for what in essence would be a military coup with royal blessing while the current King still occupies the throne. Only the blessing of a beloved king could give any kind of legitimacy to whatever government might come if the present one is overthrown, and it is easiest to understand the tactics of the yellow shirts if one starts from the belief that their goal is to take power while King Bhumipol could (if he chooses) give their government his sanction.

But the interests of a dynasty may not always be those of its strongest supporters. If we were advising the royal family, we would say that a constitutional monarchy can strive to mitigate the harshness of politics and speak for the nation as a whole, but it cannot fight the people’s will. The throne must be above politics or the question of the monarchy’s survival will inevitably become a political question. King Bhumibol is a unique figure in Thai and even world history; as a constitutional monarch he accumulated tremendous power. But the personal power of one constitutional king is not the institutional power of a dynasty or a constitutional monarchy. Moreover, to survive, constitutional monarchies must move with the times.

Sometimes the most zealous supporters of a monarchy are the source of its greatest dangers. Those who oppose timely reforms and adjustments, or those who push kings to take extreme positions have led many monarchs in world history to disaster. For the Thai monarchy to survive, which seems to be something most Thais very much want to see, it must remember something that has always been at the center of King Bumibol’s vision: that the abiding source of a constitutional monarchy’s soft but very real power is the affection and respect in which the institution is held by the people at large. King Bhumibol so far seems to have chosen to withhold his blessings from those who want to overturn the results of Thailand’s electoral process. To moderate the policies of government and to induce the opposition to remain within the bounds of the law: that is the policy that is most in keeping with the genius of the king’s long reign. It is the policy that Thailand most needs now.
 
To add some perspective:

In Thailand, before every single movie is played, in every single theater, they play a song and a short video of the king's life, showing him in various humanitarian settings and in military garb, and you are asked to stand in honor of the king. And everyone does. It's a faux pas not to. It's quite moving.

The Thais love their king with a fervor that would make Hitler envious. (This is not comparing the two entity's characters)

If you want to immediately pick a fight with everyone in Thailand, just pick a fight with one Thai. Everyone in sight will converge on you, with whatever weapons they have handy.

It's like a giant family. They may not get along internally, but they have no interest in farangs (long nose) = foreigners interfering, being involved, or even being informed.

They are the sweetest people. If you are. But they take offense very easily at people trampling on them, perceived or otherwise. They boast that (subtext: unlike every other country in the region) they have never been enslaved/colonized.

You can learn the language, eat the food, marry a Thai, whatever, but you will NEVER be a Thai.
 
The insurgency in the South continues to simmer, Muslim vs Buddhist Some pretty nasty stuff going on there.
 
And here is the latest in "ever more naked eight-year power struggle between the country’s traditional elite and Thai voters who have delivered a string of electoral majorities to parties allied to her [Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra] brother, Thaksin Shinawatra," in this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Financial Times:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/24430634-d5b7-11e3-a017-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz30wCextuM
Financial-Times-Logo.jpg

Thailand court ousts Yingluck Shinawatra over ‘abuse of power’

By Michael Peel in Bangkok

May 7, 2014

Thailand’s prime minister and senior members of her cabinet have been ousted by judges in a contentious ruling that threatens to plunge southeast Asia’s paralysed economic hub into deeper turmoil.

Government loyalist “red shirts” had warned they would rise up against any “judicial coup” launched by the courts against the elected government of Yingluck Shinawatra, after six months of opposition street protests.

Ms Yingluck is the third premier to be toppled by the judiciary in an ever more naked eight-year power struggle between the country’s traditional elite and Thai voters who have delivered a string of electoral majorities to parties allied to her brother, Thaksin Shinawatra.

The government has appointed Niwatthamrong Boonsongpaisan, deputy prime minister and commerce minister, as Ms Yingluck’s replacement, in a move unlikely to please the opposition.

Mr Niwatthamrong is seen as close to Mr Thaksin and was vice-chairman of Shin Corporation, the vast telecoms and media conglomerate the ex-premier used to own.

Mr Niwatthamrong is also an architect of a contentious rice subsidy scheme that has cost the Yingluck government billions of dollars and is one of the main focuses of protester anger.

“The redshirts will start rallies and demonstrations to show they don’t accept the court order,” said Alongkorn Polabutr, a former deputy leader of the main opposition Democrat party. “That will put Thailand in deeper conflict.”

The constitutional court ruled Ms Yingluck was guilty of abuse of power in orchestrating the 2011 removal of Thawil Pliensri as national security adviser, allegedly to allow her to promote a relation by marriage to the post of police chief. The court expelled her from office, along with roughly 10 other ministers who were cabinet members at the time of Mr Thawil’s transfer.

The ruling sets the stage for possible confrontations at mass rallies planned by both the red shirts and “yellow shirt” opposition supporters, in the next phase of a conflict that some fear could lead to civil war. While the battle has focused on Mr Thaksin and his influence on Thai politics, it reflects a deeper struggle between the urban elite and rural Thais drawn by Thaksin policies such as cheap healthcare and agricultural subsidies.

Critics of Thailand’s courts took to social media to denounce what they saw as hypocritical lectures on ethics, transparency and hidden agendas from an institution that they see as a tool of the political opposition.

“[The establishment] don’t just want to remove the Shinawatras from politics or Yingluck from politics,” said Puangthong Pawakapan, a political science specialist at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn university. “They want to change the constitution to allow conservatives to control Thai politics.”

Defenders of the courts, which enjoy sweeping powers under constitutional changes made after Mr Thaksin was ousted in a 2006 military coup, say they are independent and an essential bulwark against overweening executive power in the country’s fragile democracy.


Thailand occupies an important strategic position in Asia, if for no other reason than the narrow Kra isthmus:

kra.jpg


There is also a problem, involving a Muslim insurgency, on the border between Malaysia and Thailand and, of course, there is always China, from whence, as Kipling said, "the dawn comes up like thunder," enveloping the whole region in its light.
 
A major development: the Thai military declares MARTIAL LAW!  :o

BBC Article

The Thai army says that it is imposing martial law amid a political crisis "to preserve law and order".

The army has also granted itself wide-ranging powers to enforce its decision.

The military, which last took power in 2006, stated that the move, which gives the army control of nationwide security, was not a coup.

Martial law comes after a long-running political crisis, and months of escalating tensions between the government and the opposition.

The chief security advisor to the interim prime minister said the government had not been consulted about the army's decision.


CNN

Bangkok (CNN) -- The Thai Army declared martial law throughout the country Tuesday, Lt. Gen. Nipat Thonglek told CNN.

"The Army aims to maintain peace, order and public safety for all groups and all parties," a ticker running on the Army's television channel said. "People are urged not to panic, and can carry on their business as usual. Declaring martial law is not a coup d'etat."

Martial law went into effect at 3 a.m. on Tuesday, the ticker said.

All Thai TV stations are being guarded by the military, Thai public television announced, showing pictures of soldiers and armored vehicles taking positions outside broadcast facilities in the country's capital.

The developments come days after the head of the army issued a stern warning after political violence had surged in the country's capital.
 
Pics of Thai troops enforcing martial law from CSmonitor, Channel News Asia, NY Daily News, etc:

0519-thailand-coup_full_600.jpg


thai-soldiers.jpg


thailand.jpg


537ad1765f2c7.jpg
 
The Financial Times is reporting that "Thailand’s powerful military has launched its 12th coup of the modern era, plunging southeast Asia’s second-largest economy into a fresh phase of crisis and raising the prospect of international sanctions." The report adds that "Suthep Thaugsuban, leader of the six-month-old anti-government street protest movement, was detained by troops [and] leaders of the pro-government United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship, popularly known as the “red shirts”, have also been detained..."


Edited to add: International financial markets are taking an optimistic view of the coup, assuming (hoping?) that "the army’s goal is to use martial law as a way to force the opposing political factions to reach a compromise agreement that can lead to the creation of a functioning government with popular support."
 
Thailand coup leader a strong defender of monarchy

(philstar.com)
May 24, 2014

Thai-coup-leader-Prayuth-Chan-Ocha.jpg

Thai Army Chief Gen. Prayuth Chan-Ocha greets back his junior upon his arrival at army club for a meeting with high ranking officials after declaring martial law in Bangkok, Thailand. AP/Apichart Weerawong

He spent most of his career in the 21st Infantry Regiment, known as the Queen's Guard, and has shown particular loyalty to Queen Sirikit, consort of 86-year-old King Bhumibol Adulyadej. He played a key role in the 2006 coup that toppled Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, but became commander in chief of the Royal Thai Army after Thaksin's sister Yingluck rose to power.

<snipped>

Prayuth said the takeover is intended "to keep peace and order and solve the country's problems," though he also has shown disdain for the government he supplanted.

Asked before the coup if he had informed the government about earlier declaration of martial law this week, Prayuth said: "Where is the government now? . I don't know . Let them do their work. They should work, if they can work.

"But I don't bother the government. Now, the civil servants and the military are working for the country. I don't care about the others," he said.
 
US suspends $3.5M in military aid to Thailand
Associated Press
By MATTHEW PENNINGTON
13 hours ago


WASHINGTON (AP) - The U.S. is suspending $3.5 million in military aid to Thailand, its first punitive step against the Asian country following a military coup, the State Department announced Friday.

Spokeswoman Marie Harf said the department is still reviewing a further $7 million in direct U.S. assistance to Thailand, and an undetermined amount of aid from other global and regional programs.

Harf said the suspended programs pay for weapons sales and training for military officers.



AP / Yahoo
 
The King's support is critical both to give the military cover,but also it should keep the protests to a minimum.
 
Here is a rundown on previous coups.Personally I don't mind the Army standing by to protect the Crown as needed.

http://www.straitstimes.com/news/asia/south-east-asia/story/thailand-coup-brief-history-past-military-coups-20140522
 
Wouldn't the "Hungover games" be more appropriate certain parts of Bangkok with drunken tourists, as opposed to "the Hunger Games" ?

;D

CTV News

Thai protesters warned: Don't flash 'Hunger Games' salute

Thailand's military rulers said Tuesday they are monitoring a new form of silent resistance to the coup — a three-fingered salute borrowed from "The Hunger Games" — and will arrest those in large groups who ignore warnings to lower their arms.

Despite the warning to protesters, the junta offered a reprieve to the country's vital tourism industry. It lifted the military's curfew at three popular beach resorts — Phuket, Koh Samui and Pattaya — to ease the impact of the May 22 coup on tourists.

A midnight-to-4 a.m. curfew remained in effect for the rest of the country, including Bangkok, where the raised arm salute was unveiled over the weekend as an unofficial symbol of opposition to the coup.

"At this point we are monitoring the movement," Col. Weerachon Sukhondhapatipak, a spokesman for the junta, told The Associated Press. "If it is an obvious form of resistance, then we have to control it so it doesn't cause any disorder in the country."

(...EDITED)
 
Thailand takes a step backward away from democracy:

AFP

GENERALS WIN | Thais vote for junta charter in blow to democracy groups
By: Agence France-Presse
August 7, 2016 9:27 PM
BANGKOK - Thailand voted Sunday to approve a new constitution drawn up by the ruling junta, preliminary results showed, in a major victory for the army and a blow to the stuttering pro-democracy movement.
Partial results released by the Election Commission late Sunday showed 62 percent of voters had approved the charter, with 90 percent of votes counted so far.
Authorities estimated a subdued turnout at around 55 percent of Thailand's 50.2 million registered voters, after a poll run-up that saw independent campaigning and open debate barred.
Sunday's referendum was the first time Thais have been able to go to the polls since army chief turned Prime Minister Prayut Chan-O-Cha toppled the elected government of Yingluck Shinawatra in 2014.
(...SNIPPED)
 
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