Run Up to Election 2019

[Loachman]

While it is still early, I'd say that there's a good chance of a Conservative majority if current trends continue.

The Liberals have many vulnerabilities to exploit.

"The budget will balance itself", for one:

https://torontosun.com/news/national/goldstein-trudeau-hiked-canadas-per-person-debt-at-record-pace

GOLDSTEIN: Trudeau hiked Canada's per-person debt at record pace

Lorrie Goldstein Published: April 18, 2019

Justin Trudeau will increase the federal government's per-person debt more than any prime minister in Canadian history who did not face a world war or recession, says a new report by the Fraser Institute.

The conservative think-tank says from 2015, when he assumed office, up to the end of his current Liberal government in October, Trudeau will have increased federal per-person debt by 5.6%, to $32,589.

Trudeau's legacy "will now include record high levels of debt accumulation, due to spending increases that continue to outpace revenue," said Finn Poschmann in the study Examining Federal Debt in Canada by Prime Minister Since Confederation.

<snip>

Following his victory in 2015, Trudeau abandoned his election prediction of three years of "modest" deficits under his leadership followed by a balanced budget in 2019-20, which is the current fiscal year.

Instead, Trudeau racked up deficits at more than twice the rate he predicted.

This year, in which he told Canadians his government would have a $1 billion surplus, he's now predicting a $19.6 billion deficit — $16.6 billion even if you factor in a $3 billion reserve fund.

This is what comes of electing a PM who believes budgets balance themselves.

Inevitably, we're all going to pay for it.

https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/wudrick-trudeaus-broken-promises-cost-100-billion-and-counting

WUDRICK: Trudeau's broken promises cost $100 billion and counting

Aaron Wudrick Published: March 20, 2019

Most people don't expect their governments to be perfect. But they do expect governments to make some effort to honour commitments, be straight with taxpayers and make the best of circumstances as they come.

In the 2015 election, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau promised he'd run "modest" deficits for a few years, then balance the budget in 2019.

The prime minister just released the 2019 budget. It wasn't what he promised. And it's worth counting the ways in which he misled Canadians in the process of breaking that promise.

<snip>

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/fiscal-monitor-trudeau-surplus-1.5112639

Federal government still on pace for $15B deficit despite surplus through most of 2018-19

Last month's budget pledged billions in additional spending for previous fiscal year

Andy Blatchford · The Canadian Press · Posted: Apr 26, 2019 1:31 PM ET

The Trudeau government says it remains on track to post a budgetary shortfall of about $15 billion in 2018-19 even though a new estimate says the federal books ran a $3.1-billion surplus through the first 11 months of the fiscal year.

The number was released Friday in the Finance Department's latest fiscal monitor, a document that provides a preliminary look at the federal balance sheet.

In last month's budget, the Liberals projected the government to post a $14.9-billion shortfall in 2018-19 - so a report showing Ottawa $3.1 billion in the black with one month to go appears to have the government on pace for a better fiscal result.

The surplus, however, is poised to be more than wiped out by promised spending, the department said.

The budget contained "several significant measures" that will be booked in the 2018-19 fiscal year once the legislation is adopted, the report said.

<snip>

Program expenses rose by $12.7 billion, or 4.8 per cent, mostly because of increases in major transfers to individuals and other levels of government as well as higher direct program spending.

<snip>

The department said public debt charges increased $1.7 billion, or 8.4 per cent, in a change mostly due to the higher effective interest rate on government debt.

In February alone, the report said the government had a surplus of $4.3 billion, which was driven by a revenue boost of $3.5 billion, or 12.2 per cent, compared to the year before.

The Liberals' budget also predicted the government would run annual deficits of $19.8 billion in 2019-20, $19.7 billion in 2020-21 and $14.8 billion in 2021-22.

<snip>

 

[Loachman]

Pipelines will also be prominent. He's managed to piss off both pros and cons by waffling and dithering. We - including the antis (who still like to drive/fly/eat/be comfortable in their houses in the middle of winter/enjoy plastic products) - need oil. We can get it by ship on the east cost, but still can't sell it by ship on the left coast, or move it east by pipeline. Somebody needs to tell them, using simple words, what their lives would be like without oil (ie, short and unpleasant for most of them).

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/saudi-oil-imports-rise-canada-diplomacy-1.5096887

Canada's oil imports from Saudi Arabia on the rise since 2014, trade figures show

Total volume of Canadian imports from kingdom has increased by 66 per cent over past 5 years

Chris Arsenault CBC News Posted: Apr 28, 2019 4:00 AM ET

<snip>

A spokesperson for the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) said increased imports from Saudi Arabia buttress the call for more pipelines to increase market access for Western Canadian crude.

"Right now, our pipeline network is fairly extensive but it doesn't extend to the East Coast," said Mark Pinney, CAPP's manager of markets and transportation. "There are some refineries Canadian producers are not easily able to reach.... Additional pipeline capacity is the answer to a lot of things."

While oil imports from Saudi Arabia and the U.S. have increased, total Canadian imports have been falling since 2016, he said.

Imports are down overall because of the reversal of Enbridge's Line 9 pipeline, allowing more crude from Alberta's oilsands to be easily moved to refineries in Ontario and Quebec, said Pinney.

He said the industry is "frustrated" over slow progress in building new pipelines that would allow domestic producers to compete to supply Eastern Canadian markets, potentially displacing future imports.

<snip>

 

[Loachman]

Not much has been said about the Liberal Holy Grail - the coveted UN Security Council seat - of late. I'd thought that they'd given up on the idea as they've been very quiet about it for quite some time, plus did not live up to their campaign promises. Money is still being spent on a half-vast effort, it seems, but not enough to campaign on a second time:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-un-security-council-von-scheel-1.5113585

Canada is facing off against Ireland and Norway for a rotating seat at the table

Elise von Scheel Posted: Apr 29, 2019 4:00 AM ET

<snip>

Documents obtained by CBC News under Access to Information law show the government has ramped up spending as the clock ticks down. Since 2016, $1.5 million has been spent on the campaign - $1 million in the last 10 months alone.

The papers released include inquiries to the ministry from MPs about gifts to foreign dignitaries during Canada's pursuit of the Security Council seat. The replies revealed that there is no set budget for these gifts. Precise details on who received gifts were not provided due to privacy reasons, but the presents included everything from key chains to wild Sockeye smoked salmon.

Canadian officials have made dozens of trips for this campaign, and at least $1 million in additional money was spent in the 2016-2017 fiscal year on salaries for 11 government employees in Ottawa and New York dedicated to the bid full-time. Data was not provided for other years.

<snip>

"We've not yet seen any articulated vision of why we actually want to get the seat," David Perry, a vice-president at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, said.

He pointed out that having a clear objective the government could point to - like a better engagement strategy for Asia - would paint a more transparent picture for Canadians and UN members.

<snip>

Perry added that it's not a matter of throwing money at the campaign: The visibility of the prime minister and foreign affairs minister can be just as valuable as a dollar figure.

"It's tough simply because we haven't articulated a view of why they should vote for us."

<snip>

Some have criticized the government for failing to provide more peacekeepers or to extend Canada's commitment to UN missions like the one in Mali.

Canada was also in the hot seat as the prime minister defended his decision to ink a $15-billion deal to supply light armoured vehicles to Saudi Arabia in spite of its well-known human rights violations.

Competitors Ireland and Norway both have records that may be hard to beat.

Norway is the world's most generous foreign aid contributor, giving over one per cent of its gross domestic product to help developing countries. Canada gives about 0.26 per cent of GDP.

And while Canada has recently returned peacekeepers to the field, Ireland has double the number of blue helmets and an unbroken record of missions dating back to 1958.

<snip>

 

[Loachman]

"A Fridge Too Far" is not likely to gain many Liberal votes, and there is now a Change.org petition asking Loblaws to return the handout. That petition, as it draws further attention, may damage the Liberals at least a little bit more. Lavscam has yet to die out, and SNC-Lavalin are still fighting for their DPA. I don't know when Liberal MP LGen (Retired) Andrew Leslie will testify in VAdm Mark Norman's trial, or what, exactly, he will say, but, should it happen prior to the election, that won't help either.

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2019/05/01/news/loblaws-lobbyists-attended-trudeau-fundraiser-getting-grant-refrigerators

Loblaws lobbyists attended Trudeau fundraiser before getting grant for refrigerators

By Carl Meyer in News, Energy, Politics | May 1st 2019

Two Loblaws lobbyists, one of which helped steer the company towards a controversial $12-million federal grant to reduce the energy consumption of their refrigerators, also donated frequently to the Liberal Party and attended a partisan fundraising event with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Environment and Climate Change Minister Catherine McKenna and two of her senior officials also met with one of the lobbyists representing Loblaw Companies Ltd., soon after the grant program had opened to businesses, her office confirmed.

McKenna's office said the meeting with the lobbyist was on another topic, plastic waste, and that the grant was awarded following a fair and competitive process. Loblaw Companies also denies that the grant for their fridges was awarded because of lobbying or preferential treatment, and the lobbyists in question say they never lobbied the government over the program on behalf of the company.

But the connections and money flowing between individuals representing Loblaws and the Liberal Party "doesn't pass the smell test," argued NDP ethics critic Charlie Angus. "This is a company that has huge capacity, huge tentacles, huge lobbying," he said in an interview.

"They're very comfortable with the prime minister, they're attending fundraisers with the prime minister and senior staff from the minister of environment's office. So this is a very comfy, cozy relationship....for the Liberals to say (Loblaws) won this challenge fair and square is ridiculous."

The Liberal government has been criticized for weeks over its decision to hand public money to Loblaw Companies, one of Canada's largest corporations, to help make refrigeration systems at hundreds of its supermarkets more efficient.

Conservative environment critic Ed Fast has blasted the Trudeau Liberals for giving handouts to "the wealthy and well-connected." On Monday, the NDP demanded that the government cancel the $12-million grant.

McKenna has said Loblaws won the grant out of the government's $500-million Low Carbon Economy Challenge (LCEC) through a competitive process driven by her department, and that it will help slash the company's annual carbon pollution by roughly a quarter, while the company pays for three-quarters of the cost.

<snip>

A review of lobbying and political donation records, as well as attendance records at Liberal Party donor events, shows that while Loblaws was awaiting the results of this competition, it retained Liberal-friendly lobbyists pushing its message in close proximity to powerful people in Canadian politics.

<snip>

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/liberals-accused-of-cover-up-after-report-reveals-details-of-snc-lavalins-illegal-donations

Liberals accused of cover-up after report reveals details of SNC-Lavalin's illegal donations

A CBC investigation listed for the first time individuals accused of indirectly funnelling almost $110,000 of SNC's money to the Liberals, and $8,000 to the Tories

Marie-Danielle Smith April 30, 2019

OTTAWA - Conservatives accused Liberals of a different sort of SNC-Lavalin cover-up in question period Tuesday after a report revealed the names of employees involved in the Montreal firm's illegal attempts to influence Canadian politics between 2004 and 2011.

A CBC investigation revealed new details about the scheme and listed for the first time individuals accused of indirectly funnelling almost $110,000 of the company's money to the Liberal Party, and another $8,000 to the Conservative Party. The parties became aware of the lists during a 2016 investigation by the Commissioner of Canada Elections.

On his way into cabinet on Tuesday morning, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said his party has "moved forward on transparency and openness and that is not what happens anymore."

During question period, Conservative leader Andrew Scheer accused him of a lack of transparency for sitting on the information for three years. "It took investigative reporting to uncover it," he said. "Why did the prime minister's recent election financing changes not take action to expose this cover-up?"

Trudeau responded: "These improper donations to two political parties were made over a decade ago. Under my leadership, we have raised the bar on openness and transparency."

<snip>

Drawing that link, the Conservatives' deputy leader, Lisa Raitt, questioned whether the prime minister's office had any contact with Elections Canada in 2016, when SNC-Lavalin signed a compliance agreement with the Commissioner of Canada Elections, Yves Côté, thereby saving them from a criminal prosecution over elections violations.

"We have seen this before," Raitt said, alluding to Wilson-Raybould's testimony.

Bardish Chagger, the leader of the government in the House of Commons, didn't give a yes or no answer but said Elections Canada is independent and "decisions are taken separate from any government."

CBC's The Fifth Estate reported that it obtained the names from a leaked confidential document, which Côté had sent to the Liberal Party in 2016. It lists 18 former SNC-Lavalin employees or their spouses who donated almost $110,000 to Liberal Party riding associations and leadership campaigns. The commissioner's investigation revealed the company reimbursed the donors, which is illegal.

SNC-Lavalin also made about $8,000 worth of contributions to the Conservative Party in this way, as recently as 2011. Since 2004 it has been illegal for corporations to donate to federal parties at all.

In the compliance agreement with the commissioner in 2016, the company agreed not to break the law again. Lists of names went to the Liberals and Conservatives so they could reimburse the receiver general for the associated donations, which both did. CBC reported that Tories provided the names when asked, but Liberals repeatedly refused.

<snip>

others confirmed they received bonuses as compensation, and former senior employees confirmed being aware of, or being a part of, an effort to solicit political donations from employees.

The compliance agreement itself, which is available on the commissioner's website, states that SNC-Lavalin implemented compliance measures and mechanisms as recommended by elections officials. But it did not preclude individuals from being charged as a result of the then-ongoing investigation. One former SNC-Lavalin vice president was ultimately charged for the breaches in May 2018. Normand Morin pled guilty to two violations of the Canada Elections Act in November, for "collusion" with senior executives on behalf of political parties, and paid a $2,000 fine.

In 2014, Tory MP Dean Del Mastro faced criminal prosecution and served jail time for financial violations of the Elections Act that involved considerably less money.

"It just boggles the mind that the so-called watchdog of elections would not have taken the (SNC) matter to court and prosecuted that offence," Pierre Poilievre told reporters after question period. "It's insane. He's got a lot of explaining to do."

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-federal-prosecution-fights-back-against-snc-lavalin-bid-to-quash/

Federal prosecution fights back against SNC-Lavalin bid to quash criminal case

Sean Fine Justice Writer Published May 3, 2019

The federal prosecution service is fighting back against a bid by SNC-Lavalin to quash the criminal case against it.

The Quebec engineering giant is hoping to show that the prosecution service acted in bad faith when it declined to negotiate a settlement – known as a deferred prosecution agreement – and instead insisted on seeking a conviction. The charges against the company relate to allegations of fraud and bribery in construction contracts in Libya between 2001 and 2011.

But SNC-Lavalin is alleging bad faith before the Federal Court of Appeal, when it did not do so before a lower court, where it lost its bid for a judicial review of the prosecutor's decision in its case. The federal prosecution service says it should not be permitted to make a completely new argument in its appeal.

<snip>

 

[Loachman]

While the Conservatives set a new record for fundraising, Liberal support continues to slide (and I disagree with the assumption that "surging Tory support is soft" - "surging" and simultaneously "soft"? - in the second article below), as does Trudeau's personal approval rating. He has even been lampooned on The Simpsons, and his party described as "rudderless" in the Toronto Star. I'm not sure about Chantal Hébert's comment regarding more Liberal MPs possibly taking early retirement. Another article that I read pointed out that fewer than historically normal have done so, at least at this point in the lead-up to the election. Their morale has yet to break, it would seem, but that could change.

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/conservatives-break-fundraising-record-outpace-liberals-on-candidate-recruitment-as-election-looms#comments-area

Conservatives break fundraising record, outpace Liberals on candidate recruitment as election looms

The party hauled in just over $8 million from the beginning of the year to the end of March

Marie-Danielle Smith April 29, 2019 5:06 PM EDT

OTTAWA - The Conservative Party has broken a record for the best-ever first quarter fundraising result by a federal political party, which they are taking as a sign Canadians have been paying attention as the SNC-Lavalin scandal has unfolded.

The party hauled in just over $8 million from the beginning of the year to the end of March, according to data the party released to the National Post. It was the finest first-quarter showing in "Canadian political history," said Conservative spokesman Cory Hann, though donations have only been reported this way since 2005. The next-best result had come in the first quarter of 2011, when Stephen Harper's Conservatives raised nearly $7.4 million and went on to win a majority government that May.

The number of individual contributors has also swelled - 50,026 donors put money into the Conservative pot, the largest number of quarterly donors to pitch in for any political party since before the last federal election.

<snip>

https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/04/28/liberals-trudeau-hit-new-low-but-poll-suggests-surging-tory-support-is-soft/

Liberals, Trudeau hit new low but poll suggests surging Tory support is soft

by Joan Bryden, The Canadian Press

Posted Apr 28, 2019 7:00 am PDT

OTTAWA - A new poll suggests support for Justin Trudeau, his government and his party sank to a new low this month, just six months before Canadians will decide whether to re-elect the Liberals or give them the boot after just one term.

According to the Leger poll, conducted April 18-22 for The Canadian Press, just 27 per cent of respondents said they'd vote for Trudeau's Liberals - 13 points behind Scheer's front-running Conservatives, who, at 40 per cent, were in the range needed to win a majority of seats in the House of Commons.

The Tories led in every region except Quebec, where the Liberals enjoyed an eight-point lead with 31 per cent support; the Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois were tied at 23 per cent.

<snip>

Only 30 per cent of respondents said they were very or somewhat satisfied with the Trudeau government while 65 per cent said they were very or somewhat dissatisfied - worrying numbers for the prime minister that were reflected across every region and demographic group.

Moreover, Trudeau was five points behind Scheer on the question of who would make the best prime minister, with 20 per cent to the Conservative leader's 25 per cent.

Still, when asked if Canada would be better off with a Liberal or Conservative government, 30 per cent chose the Liberals and 25 per cent picked the Tories. Fully 45 per cent said they didn't know.

<snip>

The latest poll numbers are the lowest Leger has recorded for the Liberals and Trudeau since they took power in 2015.

The poll suggests potentially more trouble for Trudeau is in store following the election of openly hostile conservative governments in provinces across the country, particularly Ontario and Alberta.

<snip>

Noting that some provincial conservative leaders, including Ontario Premier Doug Ford and incoming Alberta premier Jason Kenney, won election by campaigning against the Trudeau government, Bourque said: "One more variable that Mr. Trudeau will need to consider in the next federal election is the fact that a lot of regional barons have turned people against Ottawa."

<snip>

https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/lilley-trudeaus-best-poll-numbers-still-have-him-losing-the-fall-election

LILLEY: Trudeau's best poll numbers still have him losing the fall election

Brian Lilley Published: May 4, 2019

How bad are Justin Trudeau's political fortunes these days?

The latest polling numbers from Campaign Research are the best he's seen in some time and he's still losing to Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives.

A poll of 1,471 adult Canadians conducted on April 30 and May 1 found 35% would back the Conservatives while 31% would back the Liberals.

The NDP under leader Jagmeet Singh were in a distant third place with 17% support.

Believe it or not, those are good numbers for Trudeau these days.

He's been dealing with some polls, like Leger, putting him at 27% support to Scheer's 40%, and Angus Reid putting the Conservatives at 38% to the Liberals 25%.

Most polls show a tighter race, as does the latest from Campaign Research, and even then it is not good news for Trudeau and his team.

Regionally, his party only has a commanding lead in Quebec where the Liberals best the Conservatives 36% to 21% support. The Liberals have lost their lead in Atlantic Canada to the Conservatives and in British Columbia, things are looking bad with the Conservatives holding a 15 point lead over the Liberals.

The Liberals are actually in third place in B.C. with 23% support compared to 24% for the NDP and 38% for the Conservatives.

<snip>

The SNC-Lavalin scandal that rocked his government costing him two cabinet ministers and two top advisors was back into the news this past week.

Not only was it back in the news due to The Simpsons episode that made it a punchline but also because of revelations about illegal donations to the Liberal Party and the ongoing court battle by the company to escape their bribery and corruption charges.

<snip>

https://www.thestar.com/politics/political-opinion/2019/05/02/is-trudeau-the-prime-minister-or-just-the-liberal-leader.html

Is Trudeau the prime minister or just the Liberal leader?

By Susan Delacourt Thu., May 2, 2019

Conservatives gave Justin Trudeau a demotion this week - a nominal one, at least.

On Wednesday, one Conservative critic after another stood up and addressed their questions to the "Liberal leader" - not the prime minister, as is conventional practice in the House.

It's a small thing, perhaps, but it coincided with the unveiling of a new Conservative attack-ad campaign, featuring the same tag line in each of the five spots: "Justin Trudeau: Not as Advertised." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNnVD_tLDzg

Casting Trudeau as a mere party leader, or a faulty product, gives us some idea of where the Conservatives believe the prime minister is vulnerable as the fall election looms. The idea, presumably, is to remind voters that Conservatives had warned people in 2015 that Trudeau was neither prime ministerial nor ready for high office. Remember "nice hair?"

Trudeau, we'll also recall, took the unusual step of replying to those attack ads with his own "I'm ready" ads - an option that may be a little more difficult in 2019, what with Conservatives saying now he is "not as advertised."

Using advertising to accuse an opponent of false advertising is maybe a bit meta for some voters and even cultural critics, but it's potentially effective too, in a pre-emptive kind of way. What kind of ads can Trudeau launch in reply this time? "I am as advertised?"

<snip>

https://www.thestar.com/politics/political-opinion/2019/05/03/liberals-are-stuck-on-justin-trudeaus-rudderless-ship.html

Liberals are stuck on Justin Trudeau's rudderless ship
By Chantal Hébert Fri., May 3, 2019

As prime minister, Justin Trudeau is not one who is usually eclipsed on a Canadian stage - especially on Parliament Hill.

The occasion of Jason Kenney's return to his former haunts Thursday in his new role as Alberta's premier was a clear exception.

For better or for worse, the premier's message that Trudeau's environmental policies are putting his province's economy in peril, alienating Albertans and putting dangerous strains on the unity of the federation, resonated loud and clear. Absent a strong federal counter-message, Kenney literally had the stage to himself.

By the time the Alberta premier left town, no one doubted where he stood. The same could not so easily be said of Trudeau.

On the energy/environment front, the prime minister has managed to lose pro-pipeline advocates to the perception that he is against them, even as more and more environmental advocates seriously doubt the depth of his commitment to the climate-change cause.

The boilerplate comments he and his government offered in response to Kenney's arguments did little to advance the prime minister's case with either camp.

On this as on other files - think of Indigenous reconciliation or refugee policy, to name just two - there is by now more confusion than clarity about the government's ultimate purpose, and questions as to whether it has lost the thread of its own narrative.

Those questions predate the so-called SNC-Lavalin affair. But they have become more acute as the failure of Trudeau's team to put the crisis behind it emerged as a possible template for its overall management of the government.

On the day after Kenney's visit, yet another poll documented the decline of the Trudeau brand.

The latest Angus Reid sounding pegged dissatisfaction with the prime minister's performance at 67 per cent, the highest of any federal leader. It also placed the Liberals in distant second place behind the Conservatives.

Given the short time frame between now and the election, those numbers are more likely to prompt more Liberal MPs to exit the scene than to set a leadership revolt in motion. Those who are seeking re-election this fall have already chosen to sink or swim with Trudeau.

But by now, some have to be wondering whether that means they elected to go down with a rudderless ship.

As his fortunes have unravelled over the past months, Trudeau has more often looked like a passenger at the mercy of the elements than a captain in command of the helm.

<snip>

 

[Haggis]

While it is still early, I'd say that there's a good chance of a Conservative majority if current trends continue.

As much as I would like to believe this, I don't think that'll be the outcome.

I also think we're in for a very American style campaign of unprecedented (in Canada anyways) drive-by smears, highly personal attacks and a ferociously emotion driven interpretation of truth.  Given that the Liberals of late have become quite experienced at deflection, obfuscation and disinformation, I believe their campaign machine will carry the day and result in, at a minimum, a Liberal minority.  I believe this because their messaging will stray away from the key election issues which are their vulnerabilities, and focus on the Trudeau personality cult based, in part, on continued consistent messaging that our celebrity PM is the best choice for today's Canada and the right "person" (see what I did there?) to keep those rogue Conservative premiers in line.

 

[FSTO]

"A Fridge Too Far" is not likely to gain many Liberal votes, and there is now a Change.org petition asking Loblaws to return the handout. That petition, as it draws further attention, may damage the Liberals at least a little bit more. Lavscam has yet to die out, and SNC-Lavalin are still fighting for their DPA. I don't know when Liberal MP LGen (Retired) Andrew Leslie will testify in VAdm Mark Norman's trial, or what, exactly, he will say, but, should it happen prior to the election, that won't help either.

Just an aside, at the Battle of Atlantic ceremony yesterday at the National War Memorial, General(Ret) Leslie was present in the front row with all the other VIPs.

Hmmm.

 

[Loachman]

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canada-consumer-confidence-slumps-in-april-amid-weak-economy-1.1254348

Canada consumer confidence slumps in April amid weak economy

Theophilos Argitis, Bloomberg News

Canadians’ confidence in the economy continues to hover at depressed levels, suggesting prospects for a strong rebound are dim.

Households are worried about the outlook for growth and their personal finances, the latest telephone polling show. Sentiment, already low, showed signs of further deterioration in the final weeks of April.

The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index ended April at 54.9, down from 55.4 at the end of March. The drop reverses a string of two consecutive monthly gains for the measure. The confidence index, a good barometer of overall economic health, has remained close to current levels for most of 2019, after plunging for much of 2018.

Canada’s economy is undergoing one of its most sluggish periods in the past decade with growth at a near halt amid a confluence of negative developments, including last year’s sharp decline in oil prices and growing global trade tensions that have curtailed business investment. Home owners have also been rattled by a slowdown in real estate markets, particularly Vancouver and Toronto.

Every week, Nanos Research asks 250 Canadians for their views on personal finances, job security, the outlook for the economy and where real estate prices are headed. Bloomberg publishes four-week rolling averages of the 1,000 telephone responses. The composite indicator is calculated from the rolling averages of the four questions.

The polling found that only 13.1 per cent of Canadians believe the economy will get stronger over the next six months, near record lows for this question. Households are also reporting concerns about their personal finances, with 29.5 per cent claiming their finances have worsened over the past year. On the plus side, Canadians are showing more confidence in the housing market, with readings for this question returning to more average levels for the survey.

<snip>

https://www.hilltimes.com/2019/05/06/with-the-clock-ticking-and-ticking-fast-to-the-election-liberal-support-headed-in-the-wrong-direction-at-the-wrong-time-say-veteran-political-analysts/198759

‘Clock ticking fast’ to next election, but Liberal support headed in ‘wrong direction at the wrong time,’ say veteran political analysts

By Abbas Rana  May. 6, 2019

'It’s never over until it’s over,’ but Liberal strategists should be ‘very concerned’ the general polling trends do not favour the governing Liberals, says Shachi Kurl, executive director of the Angus Reid Institute.

With the “clock ticking and ticking fast” to the next election, support for the federal Liberals is headed in the “wrong direction at the wrong time,” bleeding a significant chunk of their support across the country, say veteran pollsters, and the governing party should be “very concerned” that they control the national agenda, get the maximum media coverage, and yet they are still consistently behind the Conservatives this close to the October vote.

“Think about it: you have control of all the mechanisms of government, you should be able to push up your popularity just before you go into the election, and the Liberals have been completely knocked off stride,” said Ipsos CEO Darrel Bricker in an interview with The Hill Times. “They’re headed in the wrong direction at the wrong time.”

<snip>

Meanwhile, Mr. Bricker said the reason Canadians are looking more favourably at the Conservatives over all other parties is because Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer’s (Regina-Qu’Appelle, Sask.) party is capitalizing on the mistakes the governing party has been making, and the Conservatives’ success is a reflection of how Canadians view the Liberals’ performance.

Since coming to power in 2015, the Liberals have broken a number of key promises, and have made unforced errors on issues, including ditching electoral reform, ethical controversies involving senior Liberals, the gaffe-plagued India trip, not balancing the budget, controversial corporate tax changes, and most recently, the SNC-Lavalin scandal. Last week, the Conservatives launched a multi-million TV ad campaign in English and French against the Liberals, reminding voters about the broken promises and the other controversies that Liberals have run into in their time in power.

Mr. Bricker said Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s (Papineau, Que.) Liberals should be concerned that they are behind the Conservatives even though the Liberals control the agenda, and thereby get more media coverage. He said once the writ is dropped, all political parties and their leaders are going to get equal coverage, so Liberals don’t have a lot of time left before they lose this advantage. After the House adjourns, each passing day will diminish their incumbency advantage in terms of setting the agenda and media attention. At the same time, however, opposition parties and their leaders will start to receive more intense media scrutiny than they do now, Mr. Bricker said.

What is alarming for Liberals, he said, is that their party is in second place in almost all the recent polls, and that has become a trend. The only difference is by what percentage they trail.

“It’s settling into a pattern,” said Mr. Bricker. “There’s no poll right now that doesn’t have the Conservatives in first place, there’s no poll that doesn’t have the Liberals in second place, and there’s no poll that doesn’t have the NDP in third place.”

 

[Cloud Cover]

The fringes are bleeding off the main 3. The Greens in particular, maybe they will take a firm root with seats in most provinces.  That would likely hurt the NDP and Libs  more than CPC, although some conservatives will consider the Green platform on economic grounds.

 

[Loachman]

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/andrew-coyne-canadians-have-fallen-desperately-out-of-love-with-justin-trudeau

Andrew Coyne: Canadians have fallen desperately out of love with Justin Trudeau

The problem seems less to do with any one incident than with a slowly cementing impression: of a leader who talks a good game but does not deliver

Andrew Coyne May 6, 2019 8:39 PM EDT

There are precedents for the extraordinary swoon in popularity the governing Liberals are currently enduring, and have endured - 20 points in the polls in two and a half years, according to data collected by the CBC’s Poll Tracker site - but you have to go back some way to find one.

The Harper government stayed within a comparatively narrow band throughout its time in office, never falling below 30 per cent, never rising much above 40. The Chretien government likewise lost only a little altitude over the years, remaining well above 40 per cent in most polls until the sponsorships scandal brought them down to earth.

But a government falling this far, this fast, in its first term? To have done so, what is more, without even the aid of a recession - with unemployment and mortgage rates both in single digits, and separatism (in Quebec, at least) quiescent? The only parallel that comes to mind is with the first Mulroney government.

<snip>

Poll Tracker now has them an average of seven points behind the Conservatives. There are reputable pollsters who put them as much as 13 points behind. Worse still are the numbers in the regions, where elections in Canada are won and lost. They are now 10 points back in B.C., where they led by five in the last election, the party’s best showing there since 1968. They trail narrowly in Ontario, a province they won by 10 points last time. Likewise for Atlantic Canada - where they won by nearly 40 points.

Even in Quebec, where as late as the start of this year they looked likely to pick up a dozen seats or more - enough to make up for their projected losses elsewhere - their lead is now down to just 10 points, the same as in 2015. Not so long ago, the worst-case scenario for the party was that it would be reduced to a minority. As things stand, that’s about the best it can hope for.

<snip>

It is difficult to avoid the conclusion that the party’s unpopularity is connected to that of its leader. That’s true for most parties at most times, of course: Canadian politics is unusually fixated on the leader. But today’s Liberal party has taken the cult-worship of the leader to new heights. Indeed, it is almost wholly his creation; he alone could have raised the Liberals from the near-death experience of 2011. Or so it must have seemed to the party, which was thus spared any more searching examination of its predicament.

<snip>

And the public would appear to have fallen desperately out of love with Justin Trudeau. The latest Angus Reid poll gives him an astonishing net approval rating of minus 39 (28 per cent approval, 67 per cent disapproval). It isn’t that there is any great wave of enthusiasm for his rivals: among party leaders, only the Green Party’s Elizabeth May enjoys a positive net approval rating. But none excites anywhere near such antipathy.

<snip>

The problem seems less to do with any one incident than with a slowly cementing impression: of a leader who talks a good game but does not deliver; who is more concerned with symbols than substance; who spends more time posturing on social issues than attending to the nuts and bolts of governing; whose record of broken promises and centralization of power looks more like the cynical calculations of politics as usual than the shiny idealism he once seemed to embody.

<snip>

Not specific to the upcoming election, but worth a read, I thought: https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/may-2019/pms-caucus-expulsions-reveal-rot-in-parliament/

PM’s caucus expulsions reveal rot in Parliament


The expulsion of two Liberal cabinet ministers from their caucus shows the need for ambitious democratic reforms, reforms that are not easily subverted.

Michael Chong May 6, 2019

The SNC-Lavalin affair offers a rare glimpse into the inner workings of the PMO, and raises concerns about prosecutorial independence and political interference in our judicial system. But it also revealed something equally concerning - the disempowerment of members of Parliament versus their party leaders. Justin Trudeau’s unilateral expulsion of MPs Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott from the Liberal team is a testament to the omnipotence of prime ministers over their caucuses. Clearly, more expansive parliamentary reforms are required.

<snip>

The Reform Act, 2014, assumed that the rule of law is strong in the corridors of Parliament. It assumed that members of Parliament would self-regulate and govern themselves according to that principle. What took place at the first Liberal caucus meeting makes it clear that this assumption was wrong. It revealed a deep rot in Parliament. What took place justified the whole purpose of the Reform Act, which is to rebalance the power between elected MPs and all-too powerful party leaders, who are so powerful they believe themselves to be above the law.

The amendments I have suggested above would ensure that the legal right and obligation of members of Parliament to decide who has power to expel is respected, while strengthening the rule of law.

The Reform Act, 2014, was just a small step in the right direction of rebalancing power in Ottawa. But even though it passed into law it was of little force, because it ran into a political culture that is “all about the leader.” But the SNC-Lavalin affair and the resulting expulsions of Wilson-Raybould and Philpott have shed light on the need for much more ambitious democratic reforms, reforms that are not easily subverted. Perhaps it’s time for another, much bigger Reform Act.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/andrew-scheer-foreign-policy-speech-1.5126144

In first major foreign policy speech, Scheer takes aim at 'disastrous' Trudeau

Conservative leader says he'd move embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, join U.S.-led missile defence program

John Paul Tasker · CBC News · Posted: May 07, 2019 12:52 PM ETConservative Leader Andrew Scheer delivered a hard-hitting speech Tuesday that sought to outline his foreign policy priorities while laying Canada's perceived failures on the file squarely at the prime minister's feet.

Scheer said Justin Trudeau has demonstrated "a fundamental unseriousness and misunderstanding" of global issues during his time in power. He also attacked the government's "Canada is back" sloganeering as meaningless.

"Being a good ally and contributor on the world stage requires more than just talk. Both our allies and adversaries respect strength and confidence," Scheer said during a luncheon address to the Montreal Council on Foreign Relations.

"We have seen serious mistakes like this over and over again from this government, and they are almost always attributable to Mr. Trudeau's poor judgment."

The speech repeated many of the attack lines the Conservative Party has directed against Trudeau and the governing Liberals in question period in recent months. It also offered some new details - but few specifics - about what a Tory government would do differently, such as joining a U.S.-led global missile-defense coalition and starting "the necessary work towards moving Canada's embassy to Jerusalem."

 

[211RadOp]

Scheer rolls out an ambitious defence agenda, but critics ask: Where's the money?

The Conservative leader's foreign policy speech was a grab-bag of old party favourites - minus the specifics

Murray Brewster · CBC News · Posted: May 08, 2019 4:00 AM ET | Last Updated: an hour ago

A little joke used to make its way around the Harper Conservative government every time National Defence presented Andrew Scheer's former boss with the bills for new equipment — about how Stephen Harper would emit an audible 'gulp' of alarm when they crossed his desk.

Scheer, in the first of a series of election-framing speeches for the Conservatives, pledged yesterday to wrap his arms around Canada's allies, take the politics out of defence procurement, buy new submarines, join the U.S. ballistic missile defence program and expand the current military mission in Ukraine in an undefined way.

What was absent from the Conservative leader's speech — a greatest-hits medley of road-tested Conservative policy favourites, blended with jabs at the Trudeau government's record — was an answer to the first question his supporters usually ask on these occasions:

How are you going to pay for it?

<snip>

"I will reinvigorate Canada's role in the alliances we share with our democratic allies. This includes existing alliances like NORAD, NATO, the Commonwealth, La Francophonie and the Five Eyes, but it will also include overtures to India and Japan," Scheer said.

He also pledged a Conservative government would do more in Eastern Europe.

"This will include expanding upon the current missions to support Ukraine and providing Ukraine's military with the equipment they need to defend their borders," said the Conservative leader.

<snip>

Politicians are to blame, Scheer said.

"Military procurement in Canada is hyper-politicized, to our detriment," he said. "By playing politics with these matters, governments have diminished the important responsibility to adequately and expediently equip the Armed Forces."

Michael Byers, a University of British Columbia defence policy expert, said removing politics from procurement decisions would be a fantastic step forward, one that could save taxpayers boatloads of money by doing away with pet projects and regional interests.

"It's an admirable goal, but he would be the first prime minister ever to take the politics out of defence procurement," he said. "So, I'm skeptical about whether he would actually do so ... I take that statement with a very large grain of salt."


More at link https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/scheer-foreign-defence-policy-procurement-trudeau-1.5127028

 

[Cloud Cover]

"Michael Byers, a University of British Columbia defence policy expert, said removing politics from procurement decisions would be a fantastic step forward, one that could save taxpayers boatloads of money by doing away with pet projects and regional interests."

This coming from a self appointed defence expert who ran for the NDP, and has a pretty well known agenda to entirely politicize the procurement system by ensuring that procurements of any military weapons utility are discarded.
Wait ... maybe he IS in charge of procurement.

 

[Loachman]

https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/05/09/ex-tory-mp-del-mastro-accuses-elections-canada-of-a-personal-vendetta/

Ex-Tory MP Del Mastro accuses Elections Canada of a 'personal vendetta'

by The Canadian Press Posted May 9, 2019 9:51 am PDT

OTTAWA - A former Conservative MP who spent time behind bars for electoral offences is accusing Canada’s elections authority of having a personal vendetta against him - and he’s calling for a parliamentary investigation.

Dean Del Mastro was handed a one-month jail term in 2014 after being convicted of failing to report a $21,000 contribution he made to his own 2008 re-election campaign, overspending and knowingly filing a false report.

The ex-parliamentary secretary to former prime minister Stephen Harper is calling on MPs to launch a thorough investigation into the handling of his case that would include testimony from Canada’s elections commissioner.

<snip>

 

[ajieajie02]

Thoughts?


Title: Wilson-Raybould, Philpott to seek re-election as Independent MPs

 

[Remius]

They probably have a good chance at getting elected.  But they are not run of the mill independents.

This CBC article offers a good opinion on the subject.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/wilson-raybould-philpott-wherry-independents-1.5151157

 

[Cloud Cover]

Good luck with that Max, I wish you success, but watch out for milk shakes:

 

[Remius]

Good luck with that Max, I wish you success, but watch out for milk shakes:

Speaking of Max, looks like the saner members of his party might be jumping ship.

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/day6/abandoning-the-people-s-party-drake-gets-dragged-postmedia-s-politics-milkshaking-high-cuisine-and-more-1.5147118/the-nastier-side-of-populism-why-founding-organizers-are-quitting-maxime-bernier-s-new-party-1.5147163


and Chantal Hebert argues that the CPC has nothing to fear from him.

https://brooksbulletin.com/scheer-has-little-to-fear-from-berniers-breakaway-party/

6 months ago I thought that Bernier and the PPC would erode 5-10% of the popular vote from the CPC (not actual seats but votes).  enough to affect certain swing ridings.  Now I'm not so sure they will even be a factor...

 

[Loachman]

Not the run-up to this election, but I did not want to start a thread for 2023 this early.

The knives may not be out just yet, but some Liberals may be at least considering some sharpening and oiling as their worry increases...

https://www.ourwindsor.ca/opinion-story/9396023-liberal-insiders-looking-at-mark-carney-as-trudeau-s-successor/

Liberal insiders looking at Mark Carney as Trudeau’s successor

May 28, 2019 by Chantal Hébert

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership has not emerged unscathed from his trouble-plagued pre-election season.

With a possible Liberal defeat this fall in mind, some insiders are already strategizing a path to the party leadership for former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney.

Carney is due to finish his current gig as governor of the Bank of England at the end of this year. There has long been speculation that he could one day land in the Canadian political arena and that if he did, he would cast his lot with the Liberals.

As the party’s fortunes have declined in the pre-election polls, that speculation has turned into active interest - if not on Carney’s part, at least on that of some of his many fans inside the party.

On a recent conference call, a group of them discussed how Trudeau’s diminished prospects could result in an early opportunity for Carney to succeed him.

According to one participant, the group is working on the assumption that Trudeau will be hard-pressed to win more than 140 seats in October.

That would be down from 184 in the 2015 election, and well short of the 170 seats required to command a majority in the House of Commons.

With fewer than 140 seats, the Liberals would - at best - be left with a very fragile minority government. At worst, Trudeau would have led his party back to opposition.

<snip>

The issue of Trudeau’s succession - a remote prospect for the overwhelming majority of Liberals only six months ago - is now clearly more current.

<snip>

The past suggests that it usually takes two ingredients for leadership fever to set in within Liberal ranks.

The first is a critical mass of malcontents, made up of past and present movers and shakers who feel ignored or shunted aside by the current leadership team.

The second is widespread fear among the grassroots and the caucus that the leader is becoming a liability.

There has long been no lack of the first. Since Trudeau became leader, he and his team have alienated many in the Liberal old guard. Generational change rarely come easily to those in long-standing positions of influence.

The second is more recent and stems from the troubles that have befallen the Prime Minister’s Office over a particularly difficult political winter, but also from the sense - even as the government has started to turn the page on the controversies of the recent past - that the prime minister is not at the top of his game.

It may take more than an election victory this fall - especially if Trudeau falls short of securing a second majority - to cleanse the Liberals waters of the blood that has some of the party’s sharks once again circling their leader’s raft.

From http://www.bourque.org/nates.html of 9 April, in a similar vein (Pierre Bourque seems to have some good political connections):

<snip>

"I'm wondering more about who is the brain trust preparing for the election at Lib HQ. Is there any adult supervision ? Anyone with a genuine win under their belt ? Someone with actual trench warfare experience ?"

Sausage ponders the thought as he maws on a slice of buttered rye toast.

"It's a no-win gig", admits Sausage, "nobody in the family wants to take credit for dropping the Party from majority to minority or defeat."

"And you think we're gonna lose our majority ?" Bacon now looks a bit worried.

"I have no doubt, we are not going to repeat", asserts Sausage. "We don't have a stellar government record of achievement to run on beyond satisfying the pot heads and I don't know how many of them remember to vote on election day .. we don't have the leader's sunny ways charisma to bank on anymore .. we don't have Harper's longevity to run against either .. and we've got that frikkin' PMO/SNC scandal continuing to drag us down".

Bacon checks his timeline on the Huawei mobile as he's forming his reply, but before he can rebut, Sausage continues with his thought.

"So, what you're trying to understand is what will it take to not go down to abject defeat .. and who has the bona fides to prevent it from happening ?"

Bacon is ready this time.

"The problem is deeper than what you've laid out, mon ami. Think about how Justin treated the Liberal Senators. He threw them out of caucus."

"True that", admits Sausage, "as stupid a move as Harper not stacking the Senate when he still had the chance. If you don't feed the beast, the beast feeds on you. Period."

Bacon nods, continues.

"And think about how he's treated party strategists with decades of experience. He froze them out. And remember for the most part it was a very small cabal of kool-aid'rs who stumbled into the 2015 win with Justin. By pure accident. At the right place at the right time."

Sausage is nodding in agreement. He knows all this, but is hoping Bacon is leading himself towards the answer he's looking for. He motions with his toast for Bacon to finish his thought.

"Ok, ok, so, the main problem is there are a lot of key Liberals, the real so-called 'Liberal election strategists', well, they're still on the outside looking in. And they're in no rush to, well, rush in to help. They've perhaps rightly strategized that it would be best to let the current team trip up and then come in after election day with whatever help is needed, especially if it is a very iffy minority situation where Trudeau will be literally begging for help. And if Trudeau actually loses, even better in the minds of some who will assume Trudeau will be gone and a leadership campaign will be on the horizon."

"So no help for the leader ?" Sausage is side-glancing at a cabinet minister's chief of staff who came and went with a load of bagels, lox, and cream cheese in the time that Bacon was laying out his theory. He couldn't tell if the government credit card was used for the purchase.

Bacon shrugs. "No upside, they'll likely focus on some of the better MPs and help them in local campaigns instead."

"Brutal", Sausage says.

"I could be wrong," hedges Bacon as he picks a piece of meat from his teeth, "but I am not uncertain at this point.".

Developing.

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

Gee, does anyone not think for a second that China would be spending some serious cash to groups to promote re-electing Mr. Trudeau again??    You'd have to be a fool to think otherwise, they know he "admires" them and that he'll crumble if pushed.
Would that be a crime by Mr. Trudeau??  Not for a second.....

 

[Remius]

Gee, does anyone not think for a second that China would be spending some serious cash to groups to promote re-electing Mr. Trudeau again??    You'd have to be a fool to think otherwise, they know he "admires" them and that he'll crumble if pushed.
Would that be a crime by Mr. Trudeau??  Not for a second.....

Not so sure given the whole Huawei debacle going on.  If Canada blocks China from 5G they won’t be keen on sending any money here for anything.  And as long as their princess is being detained I doubt they will do anything to keep the Liberals in power.

I’m more concerned with special interest groups masquerading as charities doing what they can to influence the election here than I am with China.