daftandbarmy
Army.ca Dinosaur
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ballz said:
And then there's the caution about ascribing too much importance to polling results: https://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/the-trouble-with-polling
Run Up to Election 2019
- Thread starter Fishbone Jones
- Start date
And then there's the caution about ascribing too much importance to polling results: https://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/the-trouble-with-polling
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Generally, provinces elect provincial governments at odds with their federal (or vice versa).
But it's still early in the process... and a week can be a long time in politics.
But it's still early in the process... and a week can be a long time in politics.
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https://www.calculatedpolitics.com/project/2019-canada-election/
Liberals pulling way out now, a 20 + swing in seats based on riding breakdowns. It does appear that the momentum has markedly shifted.
Liberals pulling way out now, a 20 + swing in seats based on riding breakdowns. It does appear that the momentum has markedly shifted.
Halifax Tar
Army.ca Fixture
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Cloud Cover said:
Wouldn't it be interesting if they (Liberals) won an election with out the popular vote. And even coming in behind the Cons, as your post suggests. Oh the hand wringing that would go on...
Halifax Tar said:
Probably be a lot of people threatening to move to the US. Some actually worried they might go to the grave with a liberal government with Trudeau at the head of it in power. Same if Scheer wins. It happens on both sides every time all the time.
But if the CPC loses ground in Ontario, a lot of people and pundits will be blaming Doug Ford and his tumultuous first year in Office.
Indeed. I fear that Ford is presently an anchor weighing on the federal Conservatives.Remius said:
Political outrage has a short half life. SNC, JWR, Admiral Norman etc didn’t actually really effect voters tangibly. Much of the loudest outrage came from those who were already solid Conservatives votes.
The swing voters who will turn the election have seen little of real substance from the CPC as of yet, and the LPC haven’t stepped on any real landmines lately. There was no reason to expect that the post-controversy depths to which the Liberals plummeted would be locked in absent further problems. Compounding this, the NDP look dead in the water for this election.
We’ll see what the CPC can present as a solid platform. People still vote the issues closest to home and to their wallet, and the economy and job market are doing fairly well.
I’m still heading into this election intending to vote Conservative. It appears many others have yet to be convinced.
Either way at this point I’ll be surprised if it’s not a minority, whichever way it goes.
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I think most elections in Canada have parties winning with less than 50% of the popular vote, so count on that no matter which party wins.Halifax Tar said:
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Remius said:
Brihard said:
How well known was Doug around the province before getting in at Queen's Park?
Other than that, he lived in Toronto.
Prior to becoming premier, his government experience was limited to one term as one of 47 Toronto city councillors.
He had the third-worst attendance record. The two ahead of him both had life-threatening illnesses. One has since passed away.
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Brihard said:
As much as Ford my be an anchor for the CPC now, the Ontario Liberals will still weigh heavy on the federal Liberals in the swing ridings around Toronto.
It wasn`t Doug Ford that won the election, it was people's anger over years of Liberal waste and corruption, which they have seen glimpses of in the federal party.
It may that when people plan to vote for something "unpopular", or "not woke" they keep it to themselves until they cast their ballot. It would explain why the polls were so wrong down south in 2016.
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What the Conservatives need to develop quickly is an issue that will cause more of their base to show up and vote, while at the same time raising another issue that will cause Liberal voters to be inclined to stay at home ( complacency or boredom)
- Climate change has been a bust for both parties. Each platform increases taxes, has little to no effect on the environment;
- the economy isn’t likely to tank between now and the election;
- health care it seems can not be improved with cash (we’ve tried that) and there isn’t any more money for that anyway;
- this is a great country to be a criminal but that’s not an election winning issue.
- the governments have emasculated the security services, armed forces, but that hasn’t been an deciding factor in any election since our great grand parents were electing folks.
- identity politics is divisive but not sure that wins elections but does cause Conservatives to lose them.
This leaves relatively few issues:
- trust
- corruption
- infrastructure
- taxation
- benefits
- wellness and living standards
- perhaps immigration
Anything else?
- Climate change has been a bust for both parties. Each platform increases taxes, has little to no effect on the environment;
- the economy isn’t likely to tank between now and the election;
- health care it seems can not be improved with cash (we’ve tried that) and there isn’t any more money for that anyway;
- this is a great country to be a criminal but that’s not an election winning issue.
- the governments have emasculated the security services, armed forces, but that hasn’t been an deciding factor in any election since our great grand parents were electing folks.
- identity politics is divisive but not sure that wins elections but does cause Conservatives to lose them.
This leaves relatively few issues:
- trust
- corruption
- infrastructure
- taxation
- benefits
- wellness and living standards
- perhaps immigration
Anything else?
http://angusreid.org/federal-issues-july2019/
Federal Politics: CPC lead holds, but as Liberals begin to climb, will their task be simple, or Sisyphean?
July 16, 2019 - While the Conservative Party of Canada maintains a comfortable eight-point lead over the governing Liberals, all eyes are on the latter party to see if its slow increase in voter intention over the last three months will maintain momentum or run out of steam.
<snip>
Ontario remains a key battleground, with the CPC and Liberals statistically tied. 36 per cent of residents say they would support the CPC if the election were held today, while 34 per cent choose the Liberals. The NDP is chosen by nearly one-in-five (17%)
Six-in-ten who intend to vote Conservative (63%) say they are absolutely certain they will support the party and not change their mind, nearly double the number of Liberal supporters who say this (33%) (This could well influence voter turn-out - Loachman)
One-in-three Canadians (32%) approve of Justin Trudeau’s performance as Prime Minister, while 61 per cent disapprove. Other federal leaders continue to be viewed less than favourably as well. Conservative leader Andrew Scheer is viewed favourably by 39 per cent and unfavourably by half (51%)
<snip>
https://globalnews.ca/news/5502690/andrew-scheer-justin-trudeau-prime-minister-ipsos-poll/
July 17, 2019 5:00 am
Majority of Canadians want change in Ottawa, 37% say they’d vote Conservative: Ipsos
By Jesse Ferreras
<snip>
Ipsos noted that the Liberals are trailing in every region except Quebec.
There, the Liberals are polling at 37 per cent, representing a lead of 13 per cent over the Conservatives, who are polling at 24 per cent.
The Conservatives lead the Liberals in Ontario with 38 per cent to 32 per cent, while the NDP hold 22 per cent, the highest margin they have in any region.
<snip>
And a link from the article to the actual Ipsos poll: https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/Federal-Conservatives-Liberals-Locked-in-Holding-Pattern
Federal Politics: CPC lead holds, but as Liberals begin to climb, will their task be simple, or Sisyphean?
July 16, 2019 - While the Conservative Party of Canada maintains a comfortable eight-point lead over the governing Liberals, all eyes are on the latter party to see if its slow increase in voter intention over the last three months will maintain momentum or run out of steam.
<snip>
Ontario remains a key battleground, with the CPC and Liberals statistically tied. 36 per cent of residents say they would support the CPC if the election were held today, while 34 per cent choose the Liberals. The NDP is chosen by nearly one-in-five (17%)
Six-in-ten who intend to vote Conservative (63%) say they are absolutely certain they will support the party and not change their mind, nearly double the number of Liberal supporters who say this (33%) (This could well influence voter turn-out - Loachman)
One-in-three Canadians (32%) approve of Justin Trudeau’s performance as Prime Minister, while 61 per cent disapprove. Other federal leaders continue to be viewed less than favourably as well. Conservative leader Andrew Scheer is viewed favourably by 39 per cent and unfavourably by half (51%)
<snip>
https://globalnews.ca/news/5502690/andrew-scheer-justin-trudeau-prime-minister-ipsos-poll/
July 17, 2019 5:00 am
Majority of Canadians want change in Ottawa, 37% say they’d vote Conservative: Ipsos
By Jesse Ferreras
<snip>
Ipsos noted that the Liberals are trailing in every region except Quebec.
There, the Liberals are polling at 37 per cent, representing a lead of 13 per cent over the Conservatives, who are polling at 24 per cent.
The Conservatives lead the Liberals in Ontario with 38 per cent to 32 per cent, while the NDP hold 22 per cent, the highest margin they have in any region.
<snip>
And a link from the article to the actual Ipsos poll: https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/Federal-Conservatives-Liberals-Locked-in-Holding-Pattern
Brad Sallows
Army.ca Legend
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The Conservatives would benefit if Singh got some Layton mojo, but that's not going to happen.
Brad Sallows said:
The Conservatives would also benefit from not making boneheaded moves like this:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-conservatives-rewrite-fundraising-video-attacking-trudeaus-handling/
They are their own worst enemy at times. This is minor but shows that they haven't completely learned from past mistakes.
The Liberals now have a track record (or lack of one that might be substantial). Attack that properly and avoid anything controversial.
And provide a good platform to contrast against the LPC.
They have a perceived weak leader, didn't capitalise on getting him out there more and hitting the Liberals when they were down. Has anyone noted any real appearance by Scheer at anything? I haven't. I don't think he is getting much traction.
In short the CPC needs to stop shooting itself in the foot and get out there more effectively.
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Ever since trudeau showed up, virtue signalling has become a national past time. It allows all the idiots to believe they make a difference.
daftandbarmy
Army.ca Dinosaur
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Fishbone Jones said:
I feel a thread split coming on
The awful rise of ‘virtue signalling’
Virtue signalling is one of many phrases invented by Spectator writers (‘the Establishment’ is another). It is now in use all over the world
Go to a branch of Whole Foods, the American-owned grocery shop, and you will see huge posters advertising Whole Foods, of course, but — more precisely — advertising how virtuous Whole Foods is: ‘We are part of a growing consciousness that is bigger than food — one that champions what’s good.’ This is a particularly blatant example of the increasingly common phenomenon of what might be called ‘virtue signalling’ — indicating that you are kind, decent and virtuous.
We British do it, too. But we are more sophisticated, or underhand. Mishal Husain was particularly aggressive to Nigel Farage on the Today programme recently, interrupting him mid-sentence, insinuating that he is racist or that, even if he isn’t, his membership is. She would doubtless like to believe that she was being tough but fair. But another force within her was stronger. Mishal was ‘virtue signalling’ indirectly — indicating that she has the right, approved, liberal media-elite opinions, one of which is despising Ukip and thus, most importantly, advertising that she is not racist.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/07/the-awful-rise-of-virtue-signalling/
https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/the-latest-338canada-projection-majority-or-bust-for-andrew-scheer/
Some more data pointing to a minority government one way or another. The key question is which of the two parties can get the confidence of the house. I cannot see the NDP supporting the CPC. Not in this climate right now. But I also have a hard time seeing the LPC getting support either.
Some more data pointing to a minority government one way or another. The key question is which of the two parties can get the confidence of the house. I cannot see the NDP supporting the CPC. Not in this climate right now. But I also have a hard time seeing the LPC getting support either.
Remius said:
So far it seems literally nobody has truly shown up to play. Scheer is at least so far avoiding doing anything dumb, which I hope to see continue, and then be bolstered by solid platform promises. I still believe the federal conservatives are suffering a bit from a provincial anchor in Ontario.
The Liberals also won’t decisively engage. The shine has worn off of PMJT, and they need to tread careful lest they shoot a back bearing into one of the minefields of previous months.
Jagmeet Singh never really caught a groove and it’s showing.
The Greens are arguably the only real beneficiary of this malaise. They continue to slowly, quietly trend upwards and can reasonably expect to take a couple of seats. Wouldn’t it be a trip if either LPC or CPC got close enough that the Greens could tip the scale into confidence?
PPC are faring so dismally that hopefully they don’t cost the CPC any seats; Bernier seems to be going full desperate now with his promise of slashing immigration and planting a polite little privacy hedge along the border. While the CPC would be fundamentally healthier for shedding the voters who would be swayed by that, in an election that could run this close it’s still a short term inconvenience. Hopefully Bernier continues to not shut up and sinks himself further.
However this one goes, I think the real winner is ultimately going to be Peter MacKay.
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