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New Parliament, New Leaders?

I think it's quite telling that credible heavyweights such as McKenna and Manley have no willingness to lead and re-build the Liberal party.  Only they could credibly challenge Harper, IMHO.
 
*New* leaders?

http://phantomobserver.com/blog/?p=1336

The Return of Mr. Dithers?

I suppose you could consider it a sign of desperation on the part of long-time Liberals unimpressed with either Bob or Iggy. Sheila Copps officially assumes “old fogey” status in this week’s Hill Times, by suggesting that the time might be right for Paul Martin to come back:

Some Grits think Martin’s Bay Street cred is just what the country needs in uncertain times, and they are quietly exploring a “Draft Martin” movement. The former prime minister’s key organizers are sprinkled among all camps in the current leadership race , , ,

Some Martinites are quietly hoping the current leadership campaign may falter for lack of public interest. They envision the party rallying to the former finance minister to save the day and deliver the “natural governing party” back where it belongs, in power . . .

But those dreaming of a comeback would be wise to remember that Martin lost the government because of his scorched-earth policy toward Liberals. Any sitting Member of Parliament not sufficiently supportive was red-circled for replacement by a Martin ally.

All in all, Martin targeted about 30 ridings across the country where his supporters replaced long-time Liberals in bitter nomination fights (present company included). In the end, it was internal cannibalism that actually cost Paul Martin his job. Had the former prime minister been open to the full range of Liberal views, Martin may still be governing today.

This screed reminds me a bit of those scholars studying the U.S. Civil War, arguing over which Southern general or politician was responsible for losing the Confederacy, forever surprised by the riposte that “the Yankees had something to do with it.” Alienating supporters of Chrétien (which is what Ms. Copps actually means by “full range of Liberal views”) ignores the fact that Stephen Harper and the Tories ran a much more disciplined, and focused, campaign. Not to mention the fact that Martin’s strategies kept collapsing on him.

The problem with Ms. Copps’ notion, from a Liberal standpoint, isn’t that Mr. Martin is interested in coming back. (From all accounts and interviews, he’s having a better time as an Aboriginal activist than as PM.) The problem is that it highlights the arrogance and attitudes of those old-timer establishment Liberals who think loyalty is stronger than competition. They’re still looking at the past, and that risks putting the Party as a whole out of the running for the future.
 
I'd love to see Bob Rae win also. That would be the straw that finally breaks the lieberal lock on Ontario. He hasn't faded from memory enough here for people to forget how he ran Bantario into the ground.  I dare say Harper would end up with a strong majority running off against this fiscally incompetent boob. I can hear the rally cry now:

"Ontario isn't special! Rae days for the whole country!"

 
Don't ever underestimate the stupidity of the voting public......
 
recceguy said:
I'd love to see Bob Rae win also. That would be the straw that finally breaks the lieberal lock on Ontario. He hasn't faded from memory enough here for people to forget how he ran Bantario into the ground.  I dare say Harper would end up with a strong majority running off against this fiscally incompetent boob. I can hear the rally cry now:

"Ontario isn't special! Rae days for the whole country!"

Whoa there RG,......haven't you noticed that even OPSEU seems to have forgotten that Mr. Rae did something even that 'big bad Union hating' Mike Harris didn't do?
They have totally forgotten [and want us to forget] that the NDP is the only Ontario party to completly violate a Collective Agreement before it expired.   
 
And now some more about candidate # 3:

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fullcomment/archive/2008/11/20/don-martin-the-advantage-of-being-a-lousy-premier.aspx

Don Martin: The advantage of being a lousy premier
Posted: November 20, 2008, 7:01 PM by Kelly McParland

The chutzpa of his campaign launch was breathtaking.

The way Liberal MP Bob Rae argues it, his spectacular botching of economic policy as Ontario’s premier during the 1990s recession is an asset in his bid to become the next Liberal leader.
Electing someone inexperienced in the ways of worsening a recession, the Toronto MP warns in this odd lemonade-from-lemons squeeze play, would be risky lest they repeat his public purse spending spree as the fast route to exacerbating the crisis.

In other words, Rae infers, the fact that leadership rival Michael Ignatieff was lounging around London writing novels and airing lofty BBC documentaries during the last Ontario slump puts him a competitive disadvantage.

As bizarre as it sounds, there was really no other survival strategy in a scenario lurching toward hopeless for Bob Rae, the third and likely final candidate for a Liberal leadership that will be decided next May.

This leadership contest is different from the 2006 prosperity-era showdown against Mr. Ignatieff. Now the all-consuming focus of debate is on anything economic. As the downturn edges closer to home, it brings Mr. Rae’s notoriously lousy one-term performance as premier into sharp focus for easy attack by his opponents.

The best Mr. Rae can hope for now is that people will accept he publicly lived an ugly economics lesson and will avoid repeating the mistakes that quickly ballooned into a notorious $10-billion annual deficit.

The slightly unnerving angle is that Rae never actually admitted to making mistakes during his campaign launch news conference on Thursday.

When pressed, his bright blue eyes widened for a bit, almost as if he was reliving the horror of those  awful premier days in his head. The speed was the big shock, he admitted. When the collapse came, it hit almost overnight and spiralled government revenue into a freefall.

The best person to appreciate the inconvenient truth of that statement is obviously Prime Minister Stephen Harper, the leader now frozen in wide-eyed surprise at his government’s sudden reversal of fortunes.

So unprepared were the Conservatives for the onset of hard times, their own budgetary officer pins the looming deficit on the government’s reckless tax cuts and recent spending boosts.

Yet press Mr. Rae on a fairly straightforward point - does he favor or oppose a bailout for the auto sector? - and you get a five-minute rambling response that ducks a definitive position. Try it again and nouns, verbs and adjectives gush forth in a nice-sounding cascade that still stops short of a coherent answer.

Perhaps that speaks to Rae’s reputation as the MP who says nothing better than anybody else.
When longshots from the 2006 race sounded him out to see if he was worth supporting should their candidacies falter, they were struck by his lack of a grand vision for the country and his party. At least one candidate confides that Rae’s chronic evasiveness was their reason for supporting Stephane Dion.

But all is not completely lost for Bob Rae, even though his modest caucus support suggests he’s running in second place behind Mr. Ignatieff.

He’s bang-on in scoping the multitude of problems confronting his adopted party. The Liberals are a mess - starved of funds, hemmorhaging members, losing youth, shedding entire regions of support and technologically backward.

His idea of giving away memberships, now a token $20 fee, is interesting. I’d argue that’s basically what they’re worth so long as that the Liberals refuse to adopt a one-member, one-vote process for the party leadership.  It also seems bizarre for a party mired in debt to give up the hefty chunk of annual membership cash.  But at least it’s a new way to recruit Liberals in a sleepy race already in rerun. 

Bob Rae concludes he’s “very popular in the province of Ontario”, noting he’s often summoned to raise funds or shake hands at local riding functions.

Yet despite dignified roles presided over studies in tainted blood, post-secondary education and the merits of the Air India bombing inquiry, he is still best remembered as the man who was in charge when Ontario fell to its knees in the last great downturn.

For a party trying to fresh-face itself, he remains a disturbing optic from an experience people want to forget even as they now prepare to relive it.

dmartin@nationalpost.com

National Post

And also the candidate for more openness:

http://stevejanke.com/archives/278465.php

Bob Rae: Open to just some of the media [updated]
Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 11:45 AM

The Liberal Party leadership campaign opened with a spat between Bob Rae on one side, and Michael Ignatieff and the Ontario wing of the Liberal Party on the other, with Rae refusing to participate in a private Q&A session because the media was not invited to participate or even observe.

The Liberal Party must be open to the people, declared Bob Rae.

So when Bob Rae kicks of his high-tech Internet-savvy campaign today, he is making certain to be open to the online media.

Curiously though, only certain online media have been invited.

Bob Rae wants to be leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, even after having lost to Stephane Dion during the 2006 campaign.  I can't imagine why anyone would want that job.  It's like lusting after a cool car that has seen better days but is still in decent shape, letting Stephane Dion take it out for a test drive, and then watching in horror as Dion promptly drives the car into ditch, rolls it over a few times, and finally lands it under water.  Dion comes out of the wreck, holds out the keys, and says to Rae and Michael Ignatieff, "Who's next?"

Like I said, it makes no sense, but Bob Rae wants the job regardless, and he's got a plan rooted firmly in the 21st century:

Mr. Rae plans a campaign that will be high-tech – with interactive websites that bring the campaign into people's homes – make heavy use of social marketing and new media, and aim to infuse the 60-year-old MP for Toronto Centre with a youthful and energetic image.

After meeting with the mainstream Ottawa media and making his formal statement, Mr. Rae will do a news conference by telephone for political bloggers across the country.

So I double-checked my emails, and guess what?  I wasn't invited.

OK, so it sounds like I'm full of myself, and really, that's not it.  I don't think I'm owed an invitation, nor do I think I have any right to demand one.

But it seems a bit incongruous for Bob Rae to have thrown a hissy fit when Michael Ignatieff and Ontario Liberals held a Q&A session for Liberals that was not open to the public:

Rae says he will not participate in the Toronto forum if it is not open to the media and says it should be cancelled if it can't be open. He accused Ignatieff of blocking that possibility but Ignatieff says the executive of the LPCO -- Liberal Party of Canada Ontario -- set the rules for the forum two weeks ago and he wants to honour them.

"It sends an awful signal to have a debate that is closed to the media, closed to Canadians," Rae said in a statement, noting that the Conservatives have made closed no-media sessions a hallmark of their conventions under Stephen Harper.
If that was such a terrible signal (and frankly, I think Bob Rae was wrong on the issue of the forum), then what sort of signal does it send if this conference call for political bloggers is equally a carefully controlled affair for the selected few?

Indeed, this is worse, as the whole point of blogging and social online media and so on is the democratization of information.  Maybe Bob Rae is constrained by the number of connections available in his conference service, and there was no way to make the conference more open.  I don't buy that theory, since online meeting services like the free online Skype IP-based phone system can handle up to 25 participants in conference mode, and the equally free Skypecasting add-on can handle up to 100 participants in a one-way conference.  According to the CBC, there are 750 bloggers in Canada, and 20% of the traffic that goes to blogs is concentrated in the top ten blogs.  Just ten.  That's it.

Yeah, I'm one of those top ten blogs.

I'm curious to see how many bloggers are in this conference call, and how broad the political representation will be.  I have my doubts that when push comes to shove, Bob Rae is really all that committed to being open to the media and open to Canadians.  If this blogging conference call turns out to be Liberals-only love-in, then I think it would be fair to say that Bob Rae's rhetoric over the closed Liberal forum last week was more about trying to embarrass Michael Ignatieff than it was about principles of media accessibility and transparency.

Update: It seems to be intended to be a Liberals-only affair, though no special effort is being taken to keep anyone out.  That's based on this email from Bob Rae forwarded to me from a third-party:

Dear Liberal blogger,

Tomorrow, I will be formally launching my campaign for the leadership of my party, and I would like to give you every open opportunity to ask me questions.

Very soon after my launch, I will be hosting a special conference call exclusively for bloggers, and I sincerely hope that you are able to attend.

I believe we need to open up the Liberal Party to as many Canadians as possible, and that we need to engage all of the ideas and talents that our Liberal members and our fellow Canadians have to offer us. I look forward to starting this open dialogue tomorrow with you.

It's an exciting time for our party, our country and our future. We're looking forward to a great campaign and to your active participation within it.

The call will be hosted by an Ottawa-based company called Calliflower. You can participate in the call as you would any normal conference call – there are call in numbers for cities across Canada, if yours is not there, feel free to call our toll free number:

[various phone numbers and the conference ID code]

Calliflower also allows for an enhanced web experience. I suggest clicking on the link at the end of this message to familiarize yourself with the system and to be close to your computer during tomorrow's call. If you have any questions, please feel free to email my campaign team at info@bobrae.ca.

All the best and I look forward to talking with you later today,

Bob
I've deleted the phone numbers, since if the intention is to host a semi-private affair, I don't think it's my job to undermine that.

But the salutation, "Liberal blogger", leaves little doubt that when it comes to media events, Bob Rae wants openness -- for his supporters.

 
Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail web site, is some background on Dion’s resignation which was announced earlier today:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081208.wPOLliberals1208/BNStory/National/home
Liberal battle lines drawn
Dion resigns, effective as soon as successor 'is duly chosen'; LeBlanc pulls out of race and backs Ignatieff; Rae digs in, saying he wants a contest not a coronation

BRIAN LAGHI and CAMPBELL CLARK

Globe and Mail Update
December 8, 2008 at 4:09 PM EST

Stéphane Dion announced his departure as Liberal Leader today, paving the way for Michael Ignatieff to take over as interim chief even as rival Bob Rae digs in his heels.

"As the Governor-General has granted a prorogation, it is a logical time for us Liberals to assess how we can best prepare our party to carry this fight forward," Mr. Dion said in his resignation letter.

"There is a sense in the party, and certainly in the caucus, that given these new circumstances the new leader needs to be in place before the House resumes. I agree. I recommend this course to my party and caucus. As always, I want to do what is best for my country and my party, especially when Canadians' jobs and pensions are at risk.

"So I have decided to step aside as Leader of the Liberal Party effective as soon as my successor is duly chosen."

Mr. Dion is under fire for the way in which he handled the formation of a coalition with the NDP and MPs have expressed deep concern about whether he is the individual to lead the party into a power-sharing agreement with Jack Layton's party.

Initially, he had announced his intention to step down in May, during the Liberal leadership convention. But the party pressed him to move up that decision.

Another contender, Dominic LeBlanc, withdrew from the race Monday and threw his support behind Mr. Ignatieff. "Michael can bring the Liberal Party together in a way that no other can, and he can bring the country together in a way that Stephen Harper has not," the New Brunswick MP said at a press conference in Ottawa.

Mr. Rae, meanwhile, is hanging tough. Speaking in Toronto, he said it is up to the party membership to decide who becomes the next leader and suggested an interim leader would have an unfair advantage in the race.

The former NDP premier of Ontario added that he prefers democratic contests to coronations.

Mr. Dion's decision to step down was greeted warmly by both the New Democrats and the BlocQuébécois.

NDP Leader Jack Layton issued a statement, saying he is looking forward to working with the next leader of the "Liberal-New Democrat coalition" on proposals for the economy.

"Mr. Dion and the entire Liberal caucus have shown courage and leadership by putting aside political differences with New Democrats to forge a majority coalition," Mr. Layton said. "They have made a commitment to the coalition to get the economy on the right track for Canadian families."

Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe also issued a press release, praising Mr. Dion's willingness to put aside his own personal interests in order to allow the Liberals to choose a new leader.

"Our opinions have differed radically in many areas, particularly regarding the status of Quebec, but Stéphane Dion has always strived to serve the interests of the population in the best way possible, according to his convictions," Mr. Duceppe said.

"Change at the head of the LPC [liberal Party of Canada] does not change the Bloc Québécois' support for the coalition as long as the new leader respects the terms of this agreement." 

On Sunday, Mr. Ignatieff launched a bulldozer charge at the leadership, campaigning for the party's parliamentary caucus to elect him immediately as an interim replacement for Mr. Dion.

Mr. Ignatieff's organizers said they had the support of at least 55 of the party's 77 MPs, including Mr. Dion's most vocal supporter, suburban Toronto MP Bryon Wilfert, and MP Maurizio Bevilacqua, who chaired the 2006 leadership campaign of Mr. Ignatieff's major opponent, Bob Rae.

In addition, Mr. LeBlanc flew to Toronto Sunday night to meet with Mr. Ignatieff.

The plan calls for Mr. Dion's resignation followed by a vote that would likely install Mr. Ignatieff at the helm as interim leader. At a second-stage process — almost certainly the leadership convention currently scheduled for May — the party either would confirm him as leader or turn to his only other declared opponent, Mr. Rae.

The party's caucus executive met Sunday night and agreed to recommend the two-stage selection process to the national party executive, which is to decide the issue on Tuesday.

Should the Ignatieff plan prevail, the proposed Liberal-NDP coalition could well be scuttled. Mr. Ignatieff was never an avid supporter of the coalition and had turned against it by Saturday, according to party insiders.

Support for the coalition from the caucus had also weakened.

Mr. Rae also wanted Mr. Dion to resign sooner rather than later, but he was strongly opposed to the Wednesday caucus vote. He has proposed a one-member, one-vote combination of telephone and online balloting to be held in January.

But time seems to have run short.

Mr. LeBlanc has told friends he thinks it is "totally untenable" and "irresponsible" for a decision on the next Liberal leader to wait until a May convention.

Another confirmed Ignatieff supporter urging a swifter change of leader was Mr. Bevilacqua, the Vaughan MP who co-chaired the Rae leadership campaign in 2006 and is a former junior finance minister and former chairman of the influential Commons finance committee.

Mr. Bevilacqua said in an interview that having worked with Mr. Ignatieff last spring on the immigration platform for the party, he believes that Mr. Ignatieff "understands what needs to be done to get Canada back on track" and the "right person to lead the Liberal Party during these difficult and challenging economic times."

There is nervousness among Ontario Liberals, Mr. Bevilacqua said, that Mr. Rae's tenure as the province's NDP premier during a difficult economic period would hurt the party now if he became leader.

Two party sources said well-known Liberal and former Paul Martin adviser Mike Robinson has left the Rae camp over disagreements with Mr. Rae's embracing of the coalition. Mr. Robinson could not be reached for comment on Sunday.

Richmond Hill MP Bryon Wilfert, who has been a staunch supporter of Mr. Dion, said he informed Mr. Ignatieff he would support the leadership candidate one month ago.

"Both of us agreed not to say so publicly given my close relationship with Mr. Dion. The situation was very difficult," Mr. Wilfert said in an interview. His decision to go public with his support Sunday came after he got word Mr. Dion is planning to announce he will step down this week.

"I am deeply saddened that it's come to this point. In this business loyalty is a short commodity…" Mr. Wilfert said. "I obviously believe if he is to step down it's going to have to be a permanent individual that will be taking the realm."

Just a week ago, the three leadership candidates and Liberal MPs were united behind Mr. Dion, who negotiated a Liberal-NDP coalition, backed by the Bloc Québécois, to replace the Conservative government.

But a botched television address and negative opinion polls on the coalition doomed Mr. Dion's hopes of staying in place until the leadership convention planned for Vancouver in early May.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper avoided a confidence vote by shutting down Parliament last Thursday, and promised to introduce a budget as soon as the House comes back at the end of next month.

A growing number of Liberals want Mr. Dion to be replaced by then.

Mr. Ignatieff and Mr. Rae both hit the airwaves on Sunday and called for an accelerated leadership process. Liberal sources said that Mr. Rae could support a system in which every Liberal member votes for the new leader next month, while the Ignatieff camp has contemplated a selection process involving the party hierarchy.

While there is no consensus on the mechanics, all camps agreed that Mr. Dion must leave as soon as possible.

Among the latest was former minister and Liberal heavyweight John Manley, who called on the weekend for Mr. Dion to step down.

"Confronted by a political crisis that was not of his making, Mr. Dion became an obstacle to his party, and to the opposition, in dealing with it. His weakness probably fuelled the Conservative hubris that led to this fiasco in the first place," Mr. Manley wrote in The Globe and Mail.

Mr. Manley argued it was "delusional at best" to believe that the public would have want the recently defeated Mr. Dion as coalition prime minister.

With reports from Michael Valpy in Toronto and Daniel Leblanc, Jane Taber and Bill Curry in Ottawa and The Canadian Press


If I understand what I’ve been told by some pretty senior Liberals – and, as I’ve demonstrated over the past week, I’m quite able to ignore salient facts – the new leader can, according to the LPC constitution (which is available on the Liberal Party’s web site) be only  an interim leader until a National Convention is held and a leader is confirmed by the membership.

As has been pointed out elsewhere this is an inflexible system, ill suited to a Westminster style parliamentary democracy which demands flexibility of thought and action.

I read reports that the Conservatives had very slick, professional anti-Iggy and anti-Rae advertizing campaigns at the ready two years ago, during the Liberal leadership campaign, but they were caught flatfooted by Dion’s election and the famous shrug/”You think it’s easy to set priorities?” ads were hasty, albeit very effective, responses to a surprise. We can expect, I think, a massive barrage of attack ads showing the next leader, likely Iggy(?), to be quite detestable to all Canadians but especially to the pinko Liberal base in Toronto – the aim being to drive those voters into the arms of the NDP, thus allowing Conservatives to ‘come up the middle’ in a few Toronto and Vancouver ridings and in more and more 905 ridings. They are also likely to attack the right wing of the Liberal Party by reminding them that Iggy doesn’t really appear to have much in the way of a firm philosophical base – he’s hardly a McKenna and certainly not a Manley.

Iggy is, however, very popular in Québec – that will mean that Harper will need to give, Give GIVE to Québec to buy their votes.

 
... that will mean that Harper will need to give, Give GIVE to Québec to buy their votes.

C'est toujours le meme chose.  Il y a toujours les causes a donner a Quebec. Il n'y a pas de quoi.

I just heard on CTV news an interesting footnote to this affair. 

Some of Bob Rae's "friends and advisors" are surprised at how bitter he is.  He apparently felt that he was destined to be a Liberal PM and upset that this is being taken from him.  Makes you wonder if that is just hubris, or a reflection of his deep-seated rivalry with Ignatieff, or did his brother John tip him for the job?

This article from Rosemary Speirs of the "Red Star" in October  (I found this article via a link from a link from a link and I'm blowed if I can remember the chain now.  My apologies to the people that did the real work finding this article).

Coalition games could start when counting votes ends
 
Minority outcome would open door to grand bargain between Liberals, NDP, Bloc

October 13, 2008
Rosemary Speirs

What must Bob Rae be thinking today as he contemplates the ironies of his own personal history – and the possibility of yet another opportunity to topple a minority Conservative government?

On Dec. 14, 1979, Rae was the young New Democrat MP who rose in Parliament to move the motion that toppled the short-lived majority government of Joe Clark.

On June 18, 1985, now leader of the Ontario New Democrats, he paired with Liberal David Peterson in the vote of confidence that brought down Progressive Conservative leader Frank Miller and ended 42 years of Tory rule in the province.

That first Rae motion in 1979 resulted in an election and Pierre Trudeau returned for a third term. Rae and other New Democrats remembered bitterly his second term when then NDP leader David Lewis supported Trudeau's minority government of 1972-74 in exchange for progressive measures for which the third party got no credit, and Trudeau did.

By the time of the 1985 Tory toppling, Rae was determined to be more than a footnote in history: He agreed to support Peterson as premier only after the Liberals signed a two-year pact not to call an election, while passing an agreed-upon list of mutually acceptable reforms. The famous "accord" made Peterson premier but it also garnered a popularity for Rae's New Democrats that put him in the premier's office in 1990.

Now white-haired, a convert to Liberalism, a former rival for the leadership won by Stéphane Dion, Rae could yet play a key part in the aftermath of tomorrow's election, one all the polls say will deliver Canadians their third minority government in a row.

Will Rae then counsel Dion to consider the advantages of an Ontario-style accord with Jack Layton's New Democrats and Gilles Duceppe's Bloc Québécois? It would give Dion a stable and productive period in which to show voters his substance.

But, first a dose of realism: In 1985, the Ontario Liberals won slightly more of the popular vote than Miller's Conservatives, which gave them a moral right to seek a way to govern.

This federal election is different: Unless there was an unforeseen Liberal or NDP surge on the weekend, Prime Minister Stephen Harper is likely to emerge with more MPs, and a higher popular vote. His minority position will be precarious, but by all precedent he will have the right to attempt to govern – again by deploying the threat of an immediate election to bring the opposition hounds to bay.

Still, the media is speculating about possible coalitions or more informal opposition alliances to drag Harper down.

Harper will be weakened by internal party criticism of his decision to seek a majority by calling an early election. He may be too busy fighting internecine wars to produce a throne speech that convinces Canadians he has the answers.

If the economy continues to slide, an opposition coalition based on some guarantee of stability could possibly look very attractive to worried Canadians. The Liberals, New Democrats and Bloc have burning issues to address together: climate change, the war in Afghanistan, restoring arts funding, and strengthening of social supports in times of trouble.

In Ontario, the activist government dictated by the agreed-upon agenda in the accord proved broadly popular. Negotiated between the two parties out of common planks in their election platforms – a ban on doctors' extra-billing, equal pay for work of equal value, 10,000 social housing starts, a spills bill for polluters – the accord was impervious to the powerful doctor and business lobbies. It had been signed: Peterson could not waver.

It is difficult to see how, based on platforms and ideologies, Harper could attract a stable governing partner. It is easier to imagine the Liberals, NDP and Bloc agreeing on a common action plan.

Interestingly, Duceppe recently swallowed his spleen about Dion, the architect of the Clarity Act, and observed he might be willing to enter into an agreement with the Liberals on some issues, such as the environment – in Quebec's interests, of course. Duceppe has no doubt already ruled out a coalition (sharing cabinet seats) with a federalist party, but he might see merit in an Ontario-style accord.

Following a defeat of Harper's government in the Commons, the opposition parties could offer written proofs to Governor General Michaëlle Jean that they have a stable agreement to support Dion as prime minister for a certain period (it was two years in Ontario) in return for swift government action on their common agenda.

Could such history repeat itself? First of all, there is no guarantee that Jean will agree to name Dion prime minister. Indeed, there was initially some doubt in 1985 that then lieutenant-governor John Aird would accede to the pitch from Peterson and Rae.

Secondly, while Peterson, like Dion, had been viewed as a long-haired geek, his handlers groomed and transformed him for the 1985 election. Peterson looked like a leader: Dion has a way to go. Peterson was careful to be respectful and modest after the election, never gloating. His attitude helped his rival Rae to persuade the angry militants in his party to put aside long rivalries. Besides, Rae and Peterson had a certain friendly affinity.

Layton and Dion have expressed a mutual respect and liking. But in the final days of the campaign, Dion has urged NDP voters to switch to the Liberals to stop Harper. This appeal to strategic voting maddens the New Democrats, and creates bad blood. Certainly Rae, the defector, will not be a welcome emissary. So it would be tricky – particularly with three prickly partners instead of the two in the Ontario experiment.

But it is a tried-and-true way to offer election-weary Canadians a period of stability, and a common agenda put together out of the platforms for which most of the electorate voted.

Rosemary Speirs is a former Queen's Park and Ottawa columnist for the Star and author of Out of the Blue, the definitive book on the 1985 Ontario election and ensuing events.
  Source

Bob's coalition all along?
Bob and Jack and Gilles and Socialist International.

And no, I don't wear a tinfoil hat  ;)

Edit: Credit where it's due


 
Kirkhill said:
Bob's coalition all along?
Bob and Jack and Gilles and Socialist International.

And no, I don't wear a tinfoil hat  ;)

Nope. I could see these two NDP hacks sleeping together and planning this, probably before the last election results were counted.
 
Here is some ‘breaking news,’ reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail web site:

--------------------​
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081209.wPOLliberals1209/BNStory/politics/home

Rae bows out of Liberal race

CAMPBELL CLARK and BRIAN LAGHI

Globe and Mail Update
December 9, 2008 at 10:27 AM EST

OTTAWA — Former Ontario premier Bob Rae is bowing out of the Liberal leadership, leaving Michael Ignatieff to take hold of the party's reins before Parliament resumes in the new year.

CTV News and The Canadian Press reported Tuesday morning that Mr. Rae told confidantes during a teleconference call that he is withdrawing from the race. A press conference is scheduled for 3 p.m. ET.

It now rests with the party executive to find a way to install Mr. Ignatieff that meets with the approval of the majority of Liberal party members.

On Monday night, the party forestalled efforts to immediately install Mr. Ignatieff as leader, setting up a wider consultation of party officials over the next week after protests from Mr. Rae.

With Stéphane Dion announcing he will step down as Liberal Leader before Parliament resumes, Mr. Rae and his supporters had sought to block a move to have MPs choose a successor at a meeting Wednesday, instead hoping to delay it until next month and give party members a say.

Late Monday, the party's national executive chose a middle option for selecting an interim leader by Dec. 17 — allowing the party's riding association presidents, club presidents, and defeated candidates to weigh in, in addition to Liberal MPs and senators.

It was a compromise between the leadership camps, but it fell short of the broad vote of party members that Mr. Rae had called for. The party executive's decision is intended to delay MPs from voting on a leader until next week, although the caucus is not bound to put off their own vote.

The third candidate in the Liberal leadership race, New Brunswick MP Dominic LeBlanc, pulled out Monday to support Mr. Ignatieff, arguing that circumstances require Liberals to rally behind the "consensus" choice as leader — tacitly pressuring Mr. Rae to follow suit.

"The ideal scenario for me is that the Liberal caucus is united behind Michael Ignatieff as the leader," Mr. LeBlanc said.

While the Liberal Party's constitution technically requires that the choice now is for an interim leader, not a permanent one, it is clear that whoever is chosen will almost certainly keep the job, with a scheduled leadership convention in May probably serving only to ratify it formally.

But Mr. Rae insisted that party members must have a say in the choice, and whoever was chosen by caucus would have an unfair advantage.

"I just happen to have a view that says it's better to have the party as a whole involved in finding a solution than it is to having a solution imposed from above," he said.

"No other democratic party would do it this way, and I think we have to think very carefully about finding the right process."

MPs who support Mr. Rae trooped out in front of television cameras to argue that message, knowing that if the caucus moves to decide the matter in its meeting tomorrow, Mr. Ignatieff will almost certainly emerge as leader.

"If we pick somebody now, it will have the effect almost of being a coronation," Liberal MP Hedy Fry told the CBC.

That, in effect, was what Mr. Ignatieff's team was preparing — a move to have the caucus of Liberal MPs and senators vote to select him tomorrow, and then have the choice ratified by the national executive.

In an e-mail to supporters yesterday, Mr. Ignatieff gave no signal that he was supporting a role for rank-and-file members before that choice, arguing that if he was chosen by the caucus and executive, his leadership would be "confirmed" at the party's May convention.

But many Liberals argue that the party's members must be given some kind of say now — led by Mr. Rae's supporters, but including some MPs who support Mr. Ignatieff. Mr. Rae has garnered the support of MP Gerard Kennedy, the fourth-place finisher from the 2006 leadership race, whose convention-floor backing helped propel Mr. Dion to victory.

The party's executive held a conference call last night to discuss precisely how, and when, the new leader will be chosen.

Mr. Rae's suggestion that the party speed up the leadership race through an electronic vote in January was rejected by members of the executive as a violation of the party's constitution, which requires that a leader be chosen at a convention by elected delegates.

The party's constitution does allow the executive to choose an interim leader, in consultation with the caucus, but finding a way to give party members a say, too, was part of the conference-call discussion.

One of the options to be considered by the national executive was a proposal to speed up the election of leadership-convention delegates, now slated for March 6 to 8, so they are chosen by January. That would effectively substitute as the first-ballot result of the convention, but it could be difficult to organize so quickly.

Other ideas include having the party's 308 riding presidents canvass members and vote on their behalf, possibly along with defeated candidates from the last election.

Mr. Ignatieff's advisers said Monday night they would accept a form of grassroots consultation, such as the vote by riding presidents and defeated candidates.

What is now clear is that the Liberal Party that a week ago planned to have Mr. Dion take office today in a coalition with the NDP is now set to replace him before the next survival test of Prime Minister Stephen Harper's government in late January, with the coalition plan uncertain.

Mr. Dion, who faced mounting pressure to step down after a bungled video address to the country last Wednesday, issued a statement saying Mr. Harper's move to prorogue Parliament created a logical time for Liberals to review the way forward.

"There is a sense in the party, and certainly in the caucus, that given these new circumstances the new leader needs to be in place before the House resumes. I agree," the statement said.

Meanwhile, supporters of Mr. Ignatieff began wrestling with the thorny process of what to do about the coalition with the NDP and whether it should be maintained. One key Ignatieff backer said Mr. Ignatieff should use the coalition idea as a weapon to keep the Tories from engaging in bullying tactics.

"The coalition if necessary, but not necessarily the coalition," said the backer.

Several New Democrats pointed out yesterday that Mr. Ignatieff signed his name to the document supporting the coalition.

"I think it's something that will be difficult for anybody in the Liberal Party to want to climb down from," said New Democratic MP Charlie Angus.

NDP Leader Jack Layton issued a statement Monday saying he is looking forward to working with the next leader of the "Liberal-New Democrat coalition" on proposals for the economy.

Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe, who had agreed to support a Liberal-NDP coalition for 18 months, praised Mr. Dion's willingness to put aside his own personal interests to allow the Liberals to choose a new leader, and said that change won't affect Bloc support for a coalition.

With a report from Bill Curry

--------------------​

This is, probably, good news for Harper and the Tories. Rae is a much, much better parliamentarian that Iggy. It is likely, also, that the long (40 years and counting) war between the Trudeau/Chretien/Rae faction and the Pearson/Turner/Martin/Ignatieff crew will continue, unabated, within the Liberal Party of Canada – keeping it, always, less that properly unified and, consequently, less able to fight and win elections.

Iggy’s dithering on the coalition should give Harper a few more days, even weeks before he engineers a defeat and goes to the polls again – this time, hopefully (for me as a partisan Conservative), able to win a majority, albeit one with very limited Québec representation.

 
Bad news for the Liberal party.  A leadership race, coupled with policy renewal was their best bet to define themselves - and drum up media attention and interest.  A coronation won't get the chatteringclasses engaged, nor will it permit buy-in from the different groups under their "big tent".  The Bob Rae supporters will move to their ideological confreres in the NDP to get away from the "American tainted" Ignatieff; and the Blue Grits wilhave to decide whether to stay in opposition or move to the Tories and try to deflect them somewhat left.

So the question:  Will Ignatieff be the Kim Campbell of the Grits, plumbing new depths, or the Jean Charest, making slight progress but still leaving behind only a rump of a party to be taken over in a merger?
 
dapaterson said:
...
So the question:  Will Ignatieff be the Kim Campbell of the Grits, plumbing new depths, or the Jean Charest, making slight progress but still leaving behind only a rump of a party to be taken over in a merger?

My hope is: neither.

For reasons I hope I need not repeat I (a card carry Tory) think we need a good solid 'government in waiting' provided by a centrist party - a niche the NDP or a Liberal/NDP Alliance is intellectually unable to fill.

Ignatieff will face a (broadly but not not too deeply) centre left/left of centre party base which he will have to reconcile to his (fairly broad and deep) centre right/right of centre 'world view.' That's going to be a lot of work - work that Harper is unlikely to allow him the luxury of time to complete before the next general election. But he needs to drag the Liberals back from the loony left wing precipice, back to the political high ground of the centre and he needs to do it before Harper's Conservatives solidify their hold over too much of it.

I hope he loses a bit to the NDP; and he can afford to give up a few ridings and a few tens of thousands of the 'party faithful' in order to position himself to pick off the Conservative's left wing - which is uncomfortable with Harper et al.

I maintain there is room 'under the arch' (see below) for both the Conservatives and Liberals to compete for the centre - by offering good, solid, centrist defence, economic, foreign, fiscal, health, industry, social and trade policies.
 
I agree with the need for two centrist party, one leaning right, one leaning left.  But the rapid nature of this handover means the Liberal tent is going to empty out some more, causing further pain and agony.

Ignatieff is being handed a sword by the Lady of the Lake, as it were - and as everyone knows, supreme executive power derives from a mandate from the masses, not from some farcical acquatic ceremony.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rAaWvVFERVA


 
The CPC will ensure "The Count" wears this one as well. (Actually, I was hoping for Bob Rae to win the Poisoned Chalice, since "Rae Days for Everyone!" would have been the best election slogan ever):

http://jaycurrie.info-syn.com/hooped/

Hooped
December 7th, 2008 | Tags: Canadian Politics, Liberals

    It means if you’re a Liberal looking to escape from the coalition — and virtual extinction at the next election — Iggy’s not your boy. He is implicated up to his ears, only without even the virtue of conviction. When the Tories come to remind voters, as they will, who tried to “steal” the election, who was “in bed with the separatists,” who would have let Jack Layton loose in the cabinet, they will make Iggy wear it just as surely as they would Rae or Dion. andrew coyne

As predicted the “Coalition” has become unstuck and now is beginning to work its magic on the Liberal Party. Dion is to be gone by Christmas. His leadership is done. But as Coyne points out, Iggy never directly said the Coalition was a bad idea. So when the election comes the CPC will be perfectly able to tar him with the Coalition brush.

This really is working out better than Harper had any right to expect.

Like Edward, I would prefer the "Government in Waiting"to be composed of serious individuals who have something more than "grabbing the keys to the treasury" as a plan for governing. Rebuilding the Liberal Party or founding a new "Liberal-Democratic" party from scratch will be the challenge of a lifetime, and perhaps the only person who can do it is the Stephen Harper from an alternative universe (the one where Spock has a beard), or at least someone with the vision, tenacity and drive to do so. (Most people know my political philosophy, so unless you are interested in the founding of the Libertarian-Democratic party, I am out of the running  ;D)
 
I think Ignatiaf, of all the Liberals, is actually closer to Harper than Treadeau'esk (you know what I mean damn it!!). I think he's actually going to make a politically correct effort to work with Harper re: the economy, just so that that Harper doesn't do to him what was done to Dion....

Is he the best man for the times.....there's not much to choose from, so he's got it by default....
 
A lovely, biting post by Terry Glavin:

The Rise Of Mephistopheles
http://transmontanus.blogspot.com/2008/12/rise-of-mephistopheles.html

Mark
Ottawa

 
Who will the Liberals choose as their "new", "NEW" leader after this process flames out?

http://phantomobserver.com/blog/?p=1421

Libloggers Mad About The Iggy Process: The Second Batch

The Scott Ross:

    Stephane Dion should not have been forced to resign. Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae should never have been candidates for interim leader. The National Executive should never have allowed them to be. And throughout all of this, the Liberal caucus should not have selfishly thought of only what was best for them, but instead should have thought of what was best for the party.

    In indirectly violating our right as members to select our leader, the Liberal National Executive and the Liberal caucus ignored the importance on which their very existence is predicated upon, the importance of us, Liberals.

Arnone & Co.:

    We are in disarray. The past 48 hours have ended yet another bizarre chapter in the history of the Liberal Party of Canada. . . .

    The photo op. Gerard and Rae. A well intended gesture meant to neutralize Leblanc’s move to Ignatieff perhaps? We may never know. But what we do know is that in making that move, Mr. Kennedy has secured himself a place in the “Backing The Wrong Horse Hall of Fame of Canada”.

Calgary Grit:

    Does anyone out there think that having zero debates and no real substantive debate on the issues or the future of the party will wind up being a good thing for the long term health of the Liberal Party?

Savor these quotations, Blogging Tories. The more we remind people of how disappointed rank-and-file Liberals were about how Iggy got his promotion, the harder it will be for these same Liberals to promote the idea of an unelected coalition being a viable option.
 
According to this report, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail web site, it’s a done deal:
--------------------​
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081210.wPOLliberals1210/BNStory/politics/home

Ignatieff takes Liberal reins
Toronto MP named interim leader; fate of coalition with NDP unclear; news conference scheduled for 3 p.m. ET

Globe and Mail Update
December 10, 2008 at 12:00 PM EST

The Liberal Party named Michael Ignatieff as interim leader Wednesday, but it remains unclear whether it will go forward with a plan to topple the Conservative government with the help of the New Democratic Party and the Bloc Québécois.

Mr. Ignatieff has scheduled a news conference for 3 p.m. ET.

A day earlier, Stephen Harper reached out to the incoming Liberal leader and asked for co-operation on the economy, as the Grits sealed a quick leadership change that would strengthen their hand for a possible election, but leave the door open to compromise.

Mr. Ignatieff enters the post with a mission to rebuild his party's readiness for an election as his priority, while keeping the option of a coalition with the NDP in his back pocket as a means to extract budget concessions in January.

His quick ascension to the leadership was hastened Tuesday when his last rival, Bob Rae, decided that new party rules for choosing an interim leader left him with no hope of winning. He gracefully urged his supporters to rally to Mr. Ignatieff, who as the only candidate left will be acclaimed leader.

Mr. Ignatieff did not speak to reporters, as his advisers scrambled to prepare for a sooner-than-expected takeover of the Opposition leader's office and looked ahead to staffing jobs, uniting the Liberal Party, and preparing for a possible showdown with Mr. Harper in January.

"In difficult economic times, and with a parliamentary crisis at hand, the Liberal Party has responded quickly to changing circumstances to offer stability and leadership to Canadians. Our leadership contest has had to change as well," Mr. Ignatieff said in a statement, praising Mr. Rae and New Brunswick MP Dominic LeBlanc, who withdrew from the leadership race on Monday.

Mr. Harper, while unwilling to express regret for the recent political chaos, greeted his new opponent with an offer to be a "willing partner" on the economy.

"The government is willing to make changes to accommodate the opposition," Mr. Harper said in a rare television interview with CBC anchorman Peter Mansbridge.

"I think the big national parties should be working together to fix the economy, and we're more than willing to do that, and I hope the next Liberal leader, the first thing he'll do is be willing to sit down with me to have that discussion."

Mr. Harper said his Conservative government will return to Parliament in late January with a budget that will contain the significant economic-stimulus package demanded by the opposition.

But he rejected the notion that he stoked the crisis by placing partisan measures in his economic statement, arguing the opposition parties always planned to defeat him. Mr. Harper, whose minority government was re-elected just eight weeks ago, prorogued Parliament last week to prevent a Liberal-NDP coalition, backed by the Bloc, from defeating him in a no-confidence vote over his Nov. 27 economic statement.

And his campaign team was more bellicose.

Conservative campaign manager Doug Finley sent an e-mail to supporters attacking the Liberal-NDP coalition as undemocratic, and warning they now want to install a prime minister, Mr. Ignatieff, who "might not even be elected by members of the Liberal Party (or any other party.)"

Mr. Ignatieff has been reticent about the coalition drive to defeat Mr. Harper's Tories in a confidence vote. And his words - "a coalition if necessary but not necessarily a coalition" - were repeated over and over by Liberals yesterday.

"It's a club in the bag," said Liberal whip Rodger Cuzner. "If the Prime Minister hasn't learned from the economic update, you reach for Big Bertha."

However, the Liberals' rapid move to replace outgoing leader Stéphane Dion - who just a week ago was preparing to lead a coalition government - was mainly driven by fear they might face an election in January, or soon after.

The NDPand Bloc Québécois, meanwhile, did their best to overcome doubts about whether the coalition with the Liberals will hang together through January to defeat Mr. Harper. "We're not going to give him a second chance," said NDP deputy leader Thomas Mulcair.

Mr. Rae said he feels that Mr. Harper has already irrevocably lost the confidence of opposition parties through excessive partisanship and divisiveness and a lack of economic action.

"I think that those are two good enough reasons to say, 'Time's up, chum,' " he said.

At 60, Mr. Rae acknowledged that his quest to lead the Liberal Party is now over for good. He gracefully heaped praise on Mr. Ignatieff, his former university roommate, and declared him the party's legitimate leader.

Mr. Rae had hoped to delay a rush to select an interim leader by calling for an electronic vote of party members in January. But he said when the party executive called for 800 party officials and defeated candidates to decide the leadership in a week, he knew he could not win.

"I know how to count," he said.

"And I look at things, and I say, 'This doesn't make sense.' "

With reports from Campbell Clark, Gloria Galloway and Bill Curry

------------------​

So the deed is done: Dion joins Edward Blake in the (small) pantheon of Liberal leaders who did not become PM. Rae is reduced to the status of footnote and Iggy must restore Liberal fortunes – not, in my opinion, a quick, easy task.

 
Now if Iggy could only engineer an election which gives the Tories a small majority.....without creating his own downfall in May. That would give him four stable years to rebuild the party.
 
It's not merely a case of rebuilding - it's a case of redefining and reinvigourating the party.  His ascension to the top has rankled many of the rank and file, and has had no intellectual life breathed into the party.  A good leadership competition forces a party to discuss its past, present and future, and build a common front towards the future.

For the health of the party, he'd better set up some sort of policy renewal forum or fora, to force the party to clearly define itself.  For the past several years the Libs have permitted others to define them.
 
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