Justin Trudeau's deteriorating approval rating

[Rifleman62]

http://angusreid.org/federal-issues-dec2018/ (Report at Link)

Winter of Discontent: As Justin Trudeau’s approval deteriorates, can his rivals make gains? - 19 Dec 18
    For the first time since October 2015, someone other than Trudeau is seen as best PM

December 19, 2018 – At the end of what has been a challenging and at times chaotic year across the federal political landscape, Canadian approval of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau continues to decline.

With less than a year before an expected election, the number of people who favour Trudeau has fallen to 35 per cent, down from 46 per cent this time a year ago.

For the first time since October 2015, he is no longer seen as the national party leader who would be the best prime minister. That mantle now narrowly rests with Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) leader Andrew Scheer (33% prefer Scheer; 27% Trudeau), although many say they don’t know just who would be ideal in the top job (26%).

Underlying the downward shift in the PM’s approval is a tumultuous twelve months that saw his government face criticism for its handling of a number of key files, including pipelines, trade negotiations, and irregular border crossings.

More Key Findings:

- Asked to name the top issue facing the country today, Canadians are most likely to say it is “the deficit/government spending” (28% do, compared to 21% each for the economy, environment/pollution, and health care)

- Younger Canadians, who were outliers in their majority approval of Trudeau until now, appear to have lost some Liberal love. The Prime Minister’s approval drops to 42 per cent among 18-34-year-olds, from 56 per cent last year at this time

- NDP leader Jagmeet Singh and Conservative leader Andrew Scheer remain a question mark to significant segments of potential voters. But while Singh holds the approval of just one-in-five (21%), Scheer’s approval is tied with Trudeau’s (36%)

INDEX (at link):

Trudeau approval
What’s driving the decline?
The opposition leaders
Best PM

 

[PuckChaser]

For historical comparison, Trudeau's numbers are only 3 points higher than Harper's were going into the 2015 election (couldn't find Angus Reid poll, so its from EKOS): https://ipolitics.ca/2015/06/05/the-ekos-poll-harpers-approval-numbers-hitting-near-historical-lows/

There's also an older article from National Post showing the last 4 Prime Ministers at similar points in their time in office: https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/justin-trudeau-is-less-popular-than-stephen-harper-was-at-this-point-in-his-tenure-as-prime-minister

 

[Jarnhamar]

After the Liberals made pot legal I thought great, that's another 4 years in power for them.

Now?  I gotta say I'm really likeing Trudeau's Apple(tm) trade mark approach to customer service.  "Consumers are stupid and we'll tell them what they want".

Loving the polls, keep up the good work Justin.

 

[Haggis]

As I see it, the closer we get to an election, the louder Mad Max will become.  He will end up splitting the right vote which will result in, at a minimum, a Liberal minority government. 

 

[Remius]

I'm convinced that if Rona Ambrose had been allowed to run for the leadership she would be our next PM. 

But internal rules made the CPC shoot itself in the foot.

The current cast of opponents don't inspire much. 

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Fully agree, i have to wonder if the NDP has been taken over secretly by Liberals to ensure they are not a threat.

 

[dapaterson]

My firm belief is that in Canada politicians only lose elections; they don't win them.

 

[daftandbarmy]

My firm belief is that in Canada politicians only lose elections; they don't win them.

May the tallest person win: https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/caveman-politics/201210/it-s-weird-candidate-height-matters-in-elections

 

[brihard]

As I see it, the closer we get to an election, the louder Mad Max will become.  He will end up splitting the right vote which will result in, at a minimum, a Liberal minority government.

I’m not convinced... he’s struggling make headway, and crazies are flocking to him. He may have an impact on a few seats, but I doubt it will be enough to fundamentally sway the election. I could be wrong.

 

[Halifax Tar]

I'm convinced that if Rona Ambrose had been allowed to run for the leadership she would be our next PM. 

But internal rules made the CPC shoot itself in the foot.

The current cast of opponents don't inspire much.

Agreed.  Milpoints inbound!

 

[Haggis]

I’m not convinced... he’s struggling make headway, and crazies are flocking to him. He may have an impact on a few seats, but I doubt it will be enough to fundamentally sway the election. I could be wrong.

I was thinking more of the Liberals using him to drive "big C" conservatives away from Scheer by portraying Scheer as "liberal lite".

 

[Remius]

Eric Grenier has a good analysis here.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-year-end-polls-1.4953867

 

[Rifleman62]

Stand by, the new Liberal buy votes with taxpayers money is on the horizon for Oct 19:

Liberals looking at national basic income as way to help Canadians cope with job instability

https://globalnews.ca/news/4777313/liberals-national-guaranteed-income/

 

[Halifax Tar]

Stand by, the new Liberal buy votes with taxpayers money is on the horizon for Oct 19:

Liberals looking at national basic income as way to help Canadians cope with job instability

https://globalnews.ca/news/4777313/liberals-national-guaranteed-income/

We're not running deficits or anything so whats the problem with wildly spending ?

 

[Remius]

Latest poll tracker.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/poll-tracker-federal-poll-averages-and-seat-projections-1.4171977

Liberals up a bit.

 

[ModlrMike]

Yes they are, but the long term trend is somewhat more revealing. In virtually ever region, the Liberals are on a downwards trajectory, Quebec being a possible exception.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

As I see it, the closer we get to an election, the louder Mad Max will become.  He will end up splitting the right vote which will result in, at a minimum, a Liberal minority government.

I've been following some other forums about Bernier. He appears to have a small following that doesnt seem to be expanding much. He appears to be having trouble coalescing his.message and platform. People are already returning to the conservatives. Just what I've read.

 

[PuckChaser]

I've been following some other forums about Bernier. He appears to have a small following that doesnt seem to be expanding much. He appears to be having trouble coalescing his.message and platform. People are already returning to the conservatives. Just what I've read.

Canada is not a Libertarian country. Bernier will never have more than a small following because most non-political Canadians love our social safety net and public healthcare system. I suspect most of his policies will be a non-starter for mainstream Canada, and the only chance he had of getting more of the free market policies he likes put into practice would have been as a member of a Conservative government cabinet. Instead, he took his toys and went home, and now he'll poll around the levels of the Green Party and be a political sideshow in the Commons whenever a journalist wants to trot out the "fractured Conservative party" meme to sell a few papers.

 

[larry Strong]

I've been following some other forums about Bernier. He appears to have a small following that doesnt seem to be expanding much. He appears to be having trouble coalescing his.message and platform. People are already returning to the conservatives. Just what I've read.

Yup....this will go far.......

Bernier's party taps anti-'trans agenda' activist as candidate in Burnaby-South

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/peoples-party-canada-bernier-tyler-thompson-1.4970112


Cheers
Larry

 

[Rifleman62]

Rather than start a new Cdn politics thread, this article seems to fit here. Mods could move it to US Politics.

A mild commentary IMO.

http://nationalpost.pressreader.com/national-post-latest-edition/20190201/textview

State of the Union envy - National Post - 1 Feb 19 - Lawrence Solomon
    On the economy, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has done a lot of things wrong, writes Lawrence Solomon.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will have a bad night Tuesday, when U.S. President Donald Trump delivers his State of the Union speech before Congress. Trump has done just about everything right on the economy, Trudeau just about everything wrong, and the contrast will be cringe-worthy.

Trump will doubtless brag about America’s red hot economy, which took off the day after he was elected president in November 2016. Business confidence instantly soared upon the realization that companies would soon be able to shed the immense drag of Obama’s politically correct interventions. The stock market soared along with it, investment surged and employment boomed. The U.S. now boasts an unemployment rate below four per cent that includes rates not seen in decades, or ever, for blacks, Hispanics and women. So many people are entering the workforce to seize the well-paying jobs on offer that the workforce-participation rate is up while the numbers of those on disability and food stamps are down.

Employers are so desperate for help in America’s tight labour market that they are adapting their workplaces to accommodate those with physical and mental disabilities and are even giving a second chance to those with criminal records.

In Canada, despite the booming U.S. economy next door, our unemployment rate remains mired at 5.6 per cent, almost 50-per-cent higher than America’s. With our industries burdened by Trudeau’s Obama-style interventions — those tied to gender-equality and climate among them — and failing to generate the good jobs seen south of the border, our labour force is shrinking as wages struggle to keep pace with inflation. Investors in Canadian firms are suffering, too — since Trump’s election, the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared more than six times that of the S&P/TSX Composite Index.

What was once America’s single biggest economic and geopolitical weakness — its energy dependence on oftenunsavoury foreign suppliers — has vanished, with America’s energy ascent an American triumph. By unshackling energy development, Trump has made America the world’s largest oil and gas producer, not only selfsufficient and secure domestically but able to undercut enemies such as Russia and Iran by eroding their markets, diminishing their incomes and undermining their relevance.

What was once Canada’s single biggest economic and geopolitical strength — our energy industry — has also vanished, to become our single-biggest shame. By shackling pipelines and otherwise demonizing fossil fuels, Trudeau has neutered Canada’s largest export earners and most strategic industries, diminishing Canada’s economic clout and political relevance to the U.S. and thus inevitably to the international community.

Before Trump came to power, the conventional wisdom among the world’s elites had two-per-cent GDP growth as the new normal for developed economies, with Obama averaging just 1.65 per cent. The Trump economy has blown that conventional wisdom away. In 2018, U.S. GDP growth is estimated to come in at three per cent, 50-per-cent above Canada’s two per cent, which will more resemble the old Obama normal.

Another pre-Trump conventional wisdom had manufacturing jobs gone for good. The Trump economy blew that away, too, with 284,000 manufacturing jobs created in 2018, mainly on the strength of cuts to taxes and red tape. In Canada, where taxes rise and red tape binds, manufacturing jobs are stagnant.

Trudeau’s bad night Tuesday will have one wry consolation, however: Trump makes Trudeau look bad, but he also makes Trudeau look better than he deserves. Without the Trump gang buster economy, which has buoyed the Canadian economy to make ours look passable, the Canadian economy would be in clear decline. With Trudeau’s Canada having become one of the OECD’s highest corporate income tax jurisdictions, with our high marginal personal income tax rates certain to discourage the best and brightest from immigrating here and with investment leaving Canada, our economy’s plight will soon enough become widely evident to Canadians. How soon is the big worry for Trudeau. He needs the Trump train to keep barrelling and to keep propping up Canada’s economy at least until the fall, when he faces voters in a general election.