Election Coming soon?

[Ex-Dragoon]

I think with Ms Parrish calling the Americans idiots has just opened the door for the next election to be called. Here is why:
Martin only gave her a tap of the wrist nothing worth mentioning. He will be pressured by groups to come down harsher upon her. She and her supporters will resent this and when a vote on a bill comes down she and her supporters will vote with the Opposition thus causing the downfall of the Liberal regime. Plausible?

 

[Inch]

It all depends on what the majority of the Liberal members think of her actions, if they think she crossed the line, she and her supporters will be booted from caucus. If they think she was justified, then they'll vote with the opposition and a vote of nonconfidence will result in an election.

I'm not going to get into my political postion since I am a DND member and we support the government until an election is called. 

Cheers

 

[Kirkhill]

Ex-Dragoon

I think it is plausible but I also think Paul thinks it is plausible.  Therefore something to be avoided.  It may be a long while before this Government reconvenes Parliament and even longer before it puts any substantive issues to a vote.

The current position reverse on Fixing Medicare seems to support this.  Paul was going to make things all better with this one magical moment in September.  That ain't going to happen now.  Without solving his No.1, No.1 priority (or is that the No.2 No.1 priority after keeping his job?) health care, he is going to be really reluctant to go back to the public soon.

At the same time he is being forced to make decisions that will give him a personal record.  How will activist judges play with socially conservative Liberals from ethnic communities in urban areas?  How will agreeing with Alberta that Kyoto can't be implemented in the required timeframe play with David Anderson's buddies?  How will signing on to Missile Defence by stealth play to Carolyn Parrish?  How will Carolyn Parrish play? (Unfortunately he can't kick her out of caucus because that would further reduce his ability to control the House even with the NDP's support )

Not to mention not winning any friends amongst those that voted against him.

And while he is at it he is managing to perturb all the premiers in the land, Liberal and Tory alike.  Soon his only friend is likely to be Jack Layton.

So I don't think he will be wanting to risk an election any time soon.

Meanwhile - Stephen Harper - that man has got to learn, if not to like the Media then at least to tolerate them and figure out how to use them to his advantage.  Right now he seems to have an attitude towards them similar to that of an American Vietnam-era Vet.  He has to figure out how to "embed" them. 

Cheers Chris.

By the way anybody know how the recounts in the Regina area went?  There was a chance that the Tories could lose a seat to the NDP.

 

[George Wallace]

Is it too soon to start a pool as to when this Government colapses in on itself?

Are the Patronage scandals all done and forgotten?  What about "AD Scam"?  Where are these investigations?

I'm thinking next July - September.

GW

 

[Kirkhill]

September - November sounds good to me George.

 

[Cloud Cover]

There probably won't be much of a debate in parliament on BMD, and don't look for a meaningful vote on it, maybe just a non-binding motion - like the defintion of marriage a few years back, symbolic but meaningless. I'd say if PMPM goes down, it will be over a "money bill", like a budget. I think a few liberals will cross the floor to the NDP ... the next year will be interesting, especially if GWB wins the election in November. PMPM will be squeezed from all directions. Still, if there's a pool started, I'm going with the required vote on the budget ... probably in March.     

 

[CF104Starfighter]

Hmm...I don't think it much matters, because Mr. Martin will make some left-wing promise to Eastern Canada, and they'll elect him, and once again, no one will care what Western Canada has to say.