A Deeply Fractured US

[Fishbone Jones]

McCarthy is Speaker, on the 15th round. Democracy works.

Now the fun begins.

 

[Lumber]

McCarthy is Speaker, on the 15th round. Democracy works.

Now the fun begins.

Begins?! This has already been the best season of C-Span ever!

 

[Remius]

Begins?! This has already been the best season of C-Span ever!

It certainly sets an interesting tone for the next two years lol.

 

[Edward Campbell]

McCarthy is Speaker, on the 15th round. Democracy works.

Now the fun begins.

The primaries and 2024 elections are going to be fun. Both parties have deep divisions - the Democrats are infested with The Squad and cronies and the GOP has its Trumpians and what a friend of mine calls Neandercons.

As I understand what I read Gov Ron DeSantis of Florida is the odds-on-favourite to be the GOP candidate ... right now, but I wouldn't bet against Nikki Halely. I guess President Biden can win the Democratic nomination if he wants it ... and if he is mentally and physically capable and if the American people want an 85 year old chief executive. My guess is that he wants to retire - having beaten Trump - and that one of Harris, Whitmer or Buttigieg is a more likely choice. I will not be overly surprised to see two females contending for the presidency in 2024.

I think both the Democratic and Republican parties need to fight their own civil wars in 2023. I don't think such civil wars are damaging, in fact my guess is that they are healthy - both parties fought them in the 1960s and '70s and both were better for it. I think the GOP needs to rid itself of the Trump legacy and that may be a fairly brutal process because he, Trump, remains very, very popular with the large and active Neandercon community. I also think the Democrats need to ditch The Squad because they are too far out of the mainstream.

There is a role, an important role for both The Squad and the Neandercons, but neither is anywhere near the mainstream - each, though loud and active represents the +2 or -2 and +3 or -3 standard deviations on the bell curve. I suspect both parties know that the inmates have taken over the asylum and want to reconnect with their more traditional "bases" - Main Street and the working class.

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

I disagree with your assessment that Mr. Trump still wields much power. Him throwing his support behind Mr. McCarthy changed very little vote-wise. I contend it only APPEARS that way, because quoting those who do support him can make the kind of headlines the media needs to make you go for the clickbait. $$$$$$$$

 

[Edward Campbell]

I must admit that my earlier post is much more hope than real analysis. I stopped following US politics (seriously) a few years ago - before Trump, actually - because I thought it was all going sideways with Obama vs McCain. (I thought both were estimable men but I also thought both were tools in a "war" I didn't really understand or want to think about too much.

I'm thinking that politics, all over the world, including in Canada, Europe, China, Russia and America, is much more polarized and much nastier than it was even 25 years ago - the Bush vs Gore and Harper vs Martin and Blair vs Hague were all friendly contests between gentlemen arguing policy compared to what's going on today.

The world is more dangerous in 2023 than it's been since 1950 and we have descended into a political system that resembles school-yard "gang" fights in that same era.

 

[Halifax Tar]

I must admit that my earlier post is much more hope than real analysis. I stopped following US politics (seriously) a few years ago - before Trump, actually - because I thought it was all going sideways with Obama vs McCain. (I thought both were estimable men but I also thought both were tools in a "war" I didn't really understand or want to think about too much.

I'm thinking that politics, all over the world, including in Canada, Europe, China, Russia and America, is much more polarized and much nastier than it was even 25 years ago - the Bush vs Gore and Harper vs Martin and Blair vs Hague were all friendly contests between gentlemen arguing policy compared to what's going on today.

The world is more dangerous in 2023 than it's been since 1950 and we have descended into a political system that resembles school-yard "gang" fights in that same era.

Is this a natural evolution, or circular movement do you think ? We swing from balance to imbalance and back over time?

 

[Edward Campbell]

Is this a natural evolution, or circular movement do you think ? We swing from balance to imbalance and back over time?

Yes, certainly, but this "swing" - since 2000ish, has been wilder than most; and I think I'm pretty well read into parliamentary history back to at least the 13th century.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Yes, certainly, but this "swing" - since 2000ish, has been wilder than most; and I think I'm pretty well read into parliamentary history back to at least the 13th century.

Ya there definitely seems to be something... "Special" about the current divides.

What, in general, causes a swing back to the center?

 

[ArmyRick]

Yes, certainly, but this "swing" - since 2000ish, has been wilder than most; and I think I'm pretty well read into parliamentary history back to at least the 13th century.

One of the retired Majors from my old regiment gave me interesting perspective on things during a discussion one day. He asked me when I thought the first world war had ended. I gave the standard answer. He replied that there were some historians who said it really ended when the Berlin wall came down. When I thought about what he said, it made sense. One conflict lead to another to another.

So looking at the bigger picture here, like all of western societies, what are we missing? The vicious divide between right and left? Is it a modern Rome is collapsing?

 

[Remius]

One of the retired Majors from my old regiment gave me interesting perspective on things during a discussion one day. He asked me when I thought the first world war had ended. I gave the standard answer. He replied that there were some historians who said it really ended when the Berlin wall came down. When I thought about what he said, it made sense. One conflict lead to another to another.

So looking at the bigger picture here, like all of western societies, what are we missing? The vicious divide between right and left? Is it a modern Rome is collapsing?

You can trace the current state of the world to the events of the Teutoburg Forest if you really wanted to.

There is a school of thought that Rome never truly fell. Conceptually at any rate.

 

[Edward Campbell]

One of the retired Majors from my old regiment gave me interesting perspective on things during a discussion one day. He asked me when I thought the first world war had ended. I gave the standard answer. He replied that there were some historians who said it really ended when the Berlin wall came down. When I thought about what he said, it made sense. One conflict lead to another to another.

So looking at the bigger picture here, like all of western societies, what are we missing? The vicious divide between right and left? Is it a modern Rome is collapsing?

That's one fairly popular theory. Kennedy and Glubb and others argue that such things are "natural," but I'm not so sure. There is, I think, an argument that the Roman and Spanish and British empires could all have lasted much, much longer had a few "smart" decisions been taken at key moments - hand Britain, for example, NOT signed the Entente Cordiale with France in 1904.

 

[Halifax Tar]

That's one fairly popular theory. Kennedy and Glubb and others argue that such things are "natural," but I'm not so sure. There is, I think, an argument that the Roman and Spanish and British empires could all have lasted much, much longer had a few "smart" decisions been taken at key moments - hand Britain, for example, NOT signed the Entente Cordiale with France in 1904.

That would make for some interesting alternative history.

 

[Brad Sallows]

One of the retired Majors from my old regiment gave me interesting perspective on things during a discussion one day. He asked me when I thought the first world war had ended. I gave the standard answer. He replied that there were some historians who said it really ended when the Berlin wall came down. When I thought about what he said, it made sense. One conflict lead to another to another.

Jerry Pournelle used to refer to the Seventy Years War.

"The Afghan War is not the longest war in American history. The longest was the Seventy Years War, also known as the Cold War, which formally began just after World War II but actually started with the Russian Revolution and World War One. Indeed, the Afghan War isn’t even the second longest in American history."

The Longest War.

 

[Brad Sallows]

What interests me is that the "clown show" managed to buck the tide of centralization of power through a process most multi-party countries would find unexceptional. The threshold for the motion to vacate the chair just sets it back where it was, and provisions for more debate and amendments are also restorative. Promises to hold votes on matters are just promises to hold votes, not to force them through. Debt-limiting measures will likely end up being gestures.

A small group of Republican outliers have demonstrated that in a narrowly controlled House it's possible to negotiate some gains. Democratic outliers (eg. "Squad") will have been watching and learning. Democratic power consolidators may regret not throwing a few votes of support behind McCarthy in the first ballot to prevent "imagine if" from becoming "look at that" - 2026 at the earliest is my guess.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

The divide is there, and getting bigger. Most here know where I stand on the problem. Not much sense rehashing that. While US politics is a big picture deal, it is not the biggest picture. There's a widespread breakdown in democracy around the world, at the moment. I think people have to look a the direction most western leaders and, the society they are trying to create for us, appear to be leaning. Not the people, but the leadership and the road they're taking us down.

Who is John Locke?

 

[KevinB]

The divide is there, and getting bigger. Most here know where I stand on the problem. Not much sense rehashing that. While US politics is a big picture deal, it is not the biggest picture. There's a widespread breakdown in democracy around the world, at the moment. I think people have to look a the direction most western leaders and, the society they are trying to create for us, appear to be leaning. Not the people, but the leadership and the road they're taking us down.

Who is John Locke?

I don’t think the divide is actually bigger.
I think the perception of divide is larger, but not actually the real divide.
Our society tends to highlight certain aspects that make small things seem larger than they really are.
The problem with the instantaneous internet news is the squeaky wheel can look much larger than it really is, and gets a disproportionate amount of play.

 

[GR66]

I don’t think the divide is actually bigger.
I think the perception of divide is larger, but not actually the real divide.
Our society tends to highlight certain aspects that make small things seem larger than they really are.
The problem with the instantaneous internet news is the squeaky wheel can look much larger than it really is, and gets a disproportionate amount of play.

Agreed, but that disproportionate amount of play can amplify the differences and end up making the extremes at either end of the political spectrum larger in reaction to what they perceive as a growing extremism on the other side (even if it doesn't really exist in the way it is being portrayed).

 

[Edward Campbell]

I don’t think the divide is actually bigger.
I think the perception of divide is larger, but not actually the real divide.
Our society tends to highlight certain aspects that make small things seem larger than they really are.
The problem with the instantaneous internet news is the squeaky wheel can look much larger than it really is, and gets a disproportionate amount of play.

I'm sure that's right, the divide, I suspect, is like this:

Loud, aggressive left (i.e. The Squad) ... ... ... ... disengaged but HUGE moderate middle ... ... ... ... Loud, aggressive right (i.e. the Trumpians)

The middle wants back in, I think (hope) but they will not join either of the noisemakers. The task, for moderate (less extreme) political leaders is to silence weaken the loud extremes and provide voices which are more acceptable to the middle, resulting in this:

Loud, aggressive left (i.e. The Squad) ... ... ... ... ... ... disengaged but HUGE moderate middle ... ... ... ... ... ... Loud, aggressive right (i.e. the Trumpians)

 

[KevinB]

I'm sure that's right, the divide, I suspect, is like this:

Loud, aggressive left (i.e. The Squad) ... ... ... ... disengaged but HUGE moderate middle ... ... ... ... Loud, aggressive right (i.e. the Trumpians)

The middle wants back in, I think (hope) but they will not join either of the noisemakers. The task, for moderate (less extreme) political leaders is to silence weaken the loud extremes and provide voices which are more acceptable to the middle, resulting in this:

Loud, aggressive left (i.e. The Squad) ... ... ... ... ... ... disengaged but HUGE moderate middle ... ... ... ... ... ... Loud, aggressive right (i.e. the Trumpians)

Challenge accepted