Author Topic: General Election: Oct 21, 2019  (Read 4063 times)

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Offline Remius

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #25 on: September 13, 2019, 08:05:53 »
Agreed - but in today's environment of social media weaponization, I suspect memes & other shrill demi-truths may sway more people than discussion of issues.  I read platform documents, but I'm guessing not many other people do.

And as for the stories coming out, if you mean the literal definition via MSM, all the candidates can control is what they say, not what's written/said.

I think he meant parties and not stories. Some tablets are sensitive when typing. 

So true about memes and Facebook posts.  And sad
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Offline Hamish Seggie

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #26 on: September 13, 2019, 08:07:19 »
Huh.  Was wondering about the unseasonable strong and hot winds alternating from the east and south tonight.

MY father used to say something similar when warm east winds were prevalent. His answer was "Parliament is in session".
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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #27 on: September 13, 2019, 09:06:54 »
The Tories need to come out with a solid platform and some positive messaging. Anyone whose vote was going to swing with scandal made up their mind months ago. Tactically, Scheer showed political immaturity in going off half-cocked in the early spring with shrill demands for resignation. He left himself nowhere further to take it. Show some actual leadership, and give Canada a sense of vision in the form of policies, legislative approaches, and viable, practical, and legal solutions to problems beyond “we want to be in power but aren’t”.

Well said, Brihard.

Unfortunately,

Agreed - but in today's environment of social media weaponization, I suspect memes & other shrill demi-truths may sway more people than discussion of issues. 

So true about memes and Facebook posts.  And sad

« Last Edit: September 13, 2019, 09:45:12 by mariomike »

Offline Brihard

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #28 on: September 13, 2019, 10:39:56 »

The stories need to come out with a solid platform and some positive messaging. Anyone whose vote was going to swing with scandal made up their mind months ago.
Any proof to back that up?
Tactically, Scheer showed political immaturity in going off half-cocked in the early spring with shrill demands for resignation. He left himself nowhere further to take it
Any proof to back that up?
Show some actual leadership, and give Canada a sense of vision in the form of policies, legislative approaches, and viable, practical, and legal solutions to problems beyond “we want to be in power but aren’t”.
Any proof to back that up? Sounds like a bunch of personal opinions. They don't count unless you have some hack journalist to condone it, right?

Asking for a friend  ;)



Cute trolling, but you among anyone here don't have a leg to stand on asking anyone else to show receipts on assertions made.

The first - 'anyone whose vote is going to swing...' My opinion only. I'm not aware of anything empirical to back that. My reasoning for the opinion is that given a high volume of repetition of fundamentally the same talking points for many months, it likely has either sunk in already or it wont.

The second - Scheer going off half-cocked' - again my opinion only; same logic applies. There is little remaining political space to exploit any new avenues in the SNC thing unless there is a fundamental change, which doesn't appear likely. Even the most likely development is basically the same theme going for another revolution around the turntable.

The third, my exhortation to the CPC to 'show some actual leadership'- I made no claim, asserted nothing to be the case, and so there is nothing there for you to demand I 'back up'. But you don't care, because you're merely having a snarky little fit. I note that the post that provoked this a few days back never resulted in you actually standing by any of your claims. As I said- you have no leg to stand on.

Now please dock me my three hundred milpoints, and the rest of us will carry on with at least a reasonable facsimile of an adult conversation.
« Last Edit: September 13, 2019, 10:59:18 by Brihard »
Pacificsm is doctrine fostered by a delusional minority and by the media, which holds forth the proposition it is entirely possible to pick up a turd by the clean end.

Offline Brihard

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #29 on: September 13, 2019, 10:54:50 »
Agreed - but in today's environment of social media weaponization, I suspect memes & other shrill demi-truths may sway more people than discussion of issues.  I read platform documents, but I'm guessing not many other people do.

And as for the stories coming out, if you mean the literal definition via MSM, all the candidates can control is what they say, not what's written/said.

It would be interesting to see research on voter susceptibility to different forms of messaging like this. I suspect that while things like memes and such produce a great deal of noise, most of it is probably expended within echo chambers and mostly just nods along with opinions already held. I have a great deal of people with different views on my Facebook, and I see both sides of this pretty loudly at times. My consistent observation has been that most of the shares and likes are by people whose political opinions have come across as quite crystallized for a long time already. I struggle to think of anyone where I've seen observable shift in political views that have manifested themselves that way. I suspect that among individuals whose votes are up for grabs, social media white noise is probably not a major factor.

Now, I'm not saying that memes and other online angstiness has zero impact. I expect it has some. But I'm leery of overselling the impact that echo-chamber clickbait has on the swayable votes.

Where I *do* think it may have an impact is in taking existent, firm views, and pushing them to be more crystallized and potentially extreme. I've seen few people change their views on social media. I've seen a whole lot from various political factions who've goten angrier, dumber, and more impermeable to other points of views, because increasingly their feeds get filled only with what they want to hear, and increasingly they are surrounded by people who will all mutually reinforce that anyone with 'other' views is (insert perjorative here).
Pacificsm is doctrine fostered by a delusional minority and by the media, which holds forth the proposition it is entirely possible to pick up a turd by the clean end.

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Offline Brad Sallows

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #31 on: September 13, 2019, 13:02:11 »
>Although Scheer performed ok last night he kept avoiding questions and tried to give canned messages about Trudeau regardless of what was being asked.

I suppose the CPC has "data" that tell the party it is an effective strategy.  This would be in spite of the conventional political wisdom that opposition parties must do more than hope to coast to victory on the voters' dislike of the incumbents.  This time it will be different, you see.  I thought they'd clue in after seeing how quickly the Ethics Commissioner's report disappeared from the news
cycle.  That, coupled with the following weeks of polling results, suggests that many minds are already made up with respect to how far perceptions of scandal are going to move the dial.
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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #32 on: September 13, 2019, 13:41:10 »
Sheer's greatest asset?

He doesn't look and act like that robot, Harper :)
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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #33 on: September 13, 2019, 16:08:36 »
Cute trolling, but you among anyone here don't have a leg to stand on asking anyone else to show receipts on assertions made.

The first - 'anyone whose vote is going to swing...' My opinion only. I'm not aware of anything empirical to back that. My reasoning for the opinion is that given a high volume of repetition of fundamentally the same talking points for many months, it likely has either sunk in already or it wont.

The second - Scheer going off half-cocked' - again my opinion only; same logic applies. There is little remaining political space to exploit any new avenues in the SNC thing unless there is a fundamental change, which doesn't appear likely. Even the most likely development is basically the same theme going for another revolution around the turntable.

The third, my exhortation to the CPC to 'show some actual leadership'- I made no claim, asserted nothing to be the case, and so there is nothing there for you to demand I 'back up'. But you don't care, because you're merely having a snarky little fit. I note that the post that provoked this a few days back never resulted in you actually standing by any of your claims. As I said- you have no leg to stand on.

Now please dock me my three hundred milpoints, and the rest of us will carry on with at least a reasonable facsimile of an adult conversation.

Ah, I see. We have to play by your rules. I give opinion and your'e on me like white on rice for proof. You give opinion and get asked for proof and I'm trolling.  :rofl:

spelling
« Last Edit: September 13, 2019, 16:57:23 by Fishbone Jones »
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Offline Remius

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #34 on: September 13, 2019, 16:29:57 »
>Although Scheer performed ok last night he kept avoiding questions and tried to give canned messages about Trudeau regardless of what was being asked.

I suppose the CPC has "data" that tell the party it is an effective strategy.  This would be in spite of the conventional political wisdom that opposition parties must do more than hope to coast to victory on the voters' dislike of the incumbents.  This time it will be different, you see.  I thought they'd clue in after seeing how quickly the Ethics Commissioner's report disappeared from the news
cycle.  That, coupled with the following weeks of polling results, suggests that many minds are already made up with respect to how far perceptions of scandal are going to move the dial.

One would hope that they would stick to telling Canadians what they have to offer.  But hope is the first step towards disapointment.

I suspect they will do what they did last time and keep hammering blindly hoping it will have an effect.
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Offline Jarnhamar

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #35 on: September 13, 2019, 18:12:21 »
Sheer's greatest asset?

He doesn't look and act like that robot, Harper :)

Not being found guilty of multiple ethical violations is pretty solid too  ;D
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Offline Remius

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #36 on: September 13, 2019, 18:34:14 »
It would be interesting to see research on voter susceptibility to different forms of messaging like this.

Now, I'm not saying that memes and other online angstiness has zero impact. I expect it has some. But I'm leery of overselling the impact that echo-chamber clickbait has on the swayable votes.


Brihard, there are studies on that very topic.  This article discusses certain factors that make people believe or not believe memes based on likes and who exactly likes them.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2018-11-ill-meme.html

But when we live in a world where people believe that all news is fake news because someone they agree with says it umpteen times I doubt that experts who study this stuff will be believed. 
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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #37 on: September 13, 2019, 20:07:49 »
Trudeau's performance last night will probably go down in history as his best outing.


Note to Ms May - when you invoke the modern equivalent of Godwin, you lose all credibility.
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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #38 on: September 13, 2019, 20:46:36 »
Note to Ms May - when you invoke the modern equivalent of Godwin, you lose all credibility.

I don't know what she said, but Mr. Godwin had this to say about Godwin's Law,

Quote
By all means, compare these shitheads to Nazis. Again and again. I'm with you.
https://web.archive.org/web/20170814002835/https://twitter.com/sfmnemonic/status/web/20170814002835/https:/twitter.com/sfmnemonic/status/896884949634232320

Quote
If you're thoughtful about it and show some real awareness of history, go ahead and refer to Hitler when you talk about Trump, or any other politician.
https://web.archive.org/web/20170209163428/https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2015/12/14/sure-call-trump-a-nazi-just-make-sure-you-know-what-youre-talking-about/?utm_term=.2b78480fe90e

But when we live in a world where people believe that all news is fake news because someone they agree with says it umpteen times I doubt that experts who study this stuff will be believed.

Negative news = fake news?

Perhaps some may find the "How to Spot Fake News" attachment helpful,

















« Last Edit: September 13, 2019, 21:28:17 by mariomike »

Offline Brad Sallows

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #39 on: September 13, 2019, 21:42:19 »
>But I'm leery of overselling the impact that echo-chamber clickbait has on the swayable votes.

I doubt the impact is meaningful.  Echo-chamber propaganda rarely escapes the echo chamber, where the audience is already committed.  Given findings that deeply politically engaged people overestimate the engagement of the rest of the population, I suppose the undecided fraction is much more likely to be swayed by whatever makes the first 15 minutes of the evening news or front pages of the major dailies.

"Fake" news from obviously fringe sources is a much lesser problem than "fake" news from mainstream sources, because in the latter case credibility is more readily assumed.
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Offline MilEME09

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #40 on: September 13, 2019, 23:16:40 »
Personally this election cycle I am not being drawn by the under whelming performance of any of the major parties. As a result I have been drawn to and likely will vote Veterans Coalition Party come October. For being a new party they have managed candidates in almost every riding. While I doubt they will win a seat, best case they get one, they have a solid platform that could appeal to many voters if they got the message out such as making CPP Tax free, or rebuilding the New veterans Charter.

https://veteranscoalitionpartyofcanada.ca/
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Offline Journeyman

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #41 on: September 14, 2019, 08:11:37 »
https://veteranscoalitionpartyofcanada.ca/
Hmm, learn something new every day.  I had to Google, since I'd never heard of them;  my riding doesn't have a candidate (of course, so far we have only Libs, Con, and PPC -- no NDP or Greens).

Being so fringe, I suspect any votes would have an effect similar to a spoiled ballot.  :dunno:

Offline MilEME09

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #42 on: September 14, 2019, 08:22:20 »
Hmm, learn something new every day.  I had to Google, since I'd never heard of them;  my riding doesn't have a candidate (of course, so far we have only Libs, Con, and PPC -- no NDP or Greens).

Being so fringe, I suspect any votes would have an effect similar to a spoiled ballot.  :dunno:

While I would say true in this case, apparently elections Canada hasn't verified their candidates yet, and they have until Sept30th to file all required documents. While it might be a spoiled ballot, it can eventually translate to seats given an election or two. Enough people vote though and the popular vote shows they the have traction can make the difference later down the road.
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Offline AbdullahD

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #43 on: September 14, 2019, 15:49:02 »
Got to love Trudeau

The risk of stealing equity in your home...

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-cannabis-loss-1.5282994

Then taxxing your gains up to 5 years instead of just needing to stay in a place for one year...

Justin Trudeau’s secret plan to tax homeowners - Canada's Official Opposition
https://www.conservative.ca/justin-trudeaus-secret-plan-to-tax-homeowners/

I have a few buddies who flip houses and this will wipe them out. How are these not huge deals? Potentially wiping out tens of thousands of dollars from your pocketbook, but no one cares?

Sorry I am pissed, because it directly affects me and my planning for my circumnavigation.

Guess my only realistic voting option is the right.
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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #44 on: September 14, 2019, 16:35:04 »
Not a fan of JT but that Conservative ad is misleading, even disinformation. The proposal from the Liberals is for a 1% tax applied to buyers who are both non resident and non Canadian. In particular, it is an attempt to discourage purchasing of real estate in Canada through means of unexplained wealth. Buying a fixer upper, polishing it up, then selling it as a principal residence is not going to trigger that tax. That activity is exactly what we need more of, and not this continuous real estate pornography show of opulent, wasteful homes that are rarely/ barely occupied.
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Offline AbdullahD

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #45 on: September 14, 2019, 18:10:47 »
Not a fan of JT but that Conservative ad is misleading, even disinformation. The proposal from the Liberals is for a 1% tax applied to buyers who are both non resident and non Canadian. In particular, it is an attempt to discourage purchasing of real estate in Canada through means of unexplained wealth. Buying a fixer upper, polishing it up, then selling it as a principal residence is not going to trigger that tax. That activity is exactly what we need more of, and not this continuous real estate pornography show of opulent, wasteful homes that are rarely/ barely occupied.

I will have to go looking for another more legitimate source.. but this one is what I based my thoughts off of.

Maybe I misread or am being misled.

I thought you might be interested in this blog post authored by Garth Turner: The house tax. You can view it at this link: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2019/09/13/the-house-tax-2/

Abdullah

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #46 on: September 14, 2019, 18:36:34 »
Not a fan of JT but that Conservative ad is misleading, even disinformation. The proposal from the Liberals is for a 1% tax applied to buyers who are both non resident and non Canadian. In particular, it is an attempt to discourage purchasing of real estate in Canada through means of unexplained wealth. Buying a fixer upper, polishing it up, then selling it as a principal residence is not going to trigger that tax. That activity is exactly what we need more of, and not this continuous real estate pornography show of opulent, wasteful homes that are rarely/ barely occupied.

Apparently this is different and is not the 1% annual tax on foreign ownership of houses. This was allegedly proposed by Adam Vaughn and would apply to every homeowner in Canada. I have not seen the Liberals formally announce it, but I could sure see it being snuck into the next omnibus budget bill, if they get re-elected.

Could you imagine the effect it would have on the CAF alone, at posting season in 2020? Who could afford to move and sell a house, taking a captial gains beating every few years?

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #47 on: September 14, 2019, 19:20:11 »
This all seems to be based on the attached document (fragment?) shared via various Conservative sources.  Didn't seem to make it into the platform document (which I know some will say is not worth the paper/electrons it's printed on) - also attached.  Also for the record, I've attached what buddy whose name is on the first document had to say.

All that said ...
... I could sure see it being snuck into the next omnibus budget bill, if they get re-elected ...
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Offline Remius

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #48 on: September 14, 2019, 19:28:40 »
Apparently this is different and is not the 1% annual tax on foreign ownership of houses. This was allegedly proposed by Adam Vaughn and would apply to every homeowner in Canada. I have not seen the Liberals formally announce it, but I could sure see it being snuck into the next omnibus budget bill, if they get re-elected.

Could you imagine the effect it would have on the CAF alone, at posting season in 2020? Who could afford to move and sell a house, taking a captial gains beating every few years?

It looks like it might be a misrepresentation.

https://ipolitics.ca/2019/09/13/tory-allegation-of-secret-trudeau-tax-plan-a-blatant-misrepresentation-liberal-incumbent-says/

So far I’ve only seen the 1% foreign buyers tax (a good thing as far as I can tell)

And the first time homebuyers shared equity plan.  Depending on where you stand it could be a good thing if you want a house but are ok sharing 10% of the value with the government.
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Offline Remius

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #49 on: September 14, 2019, 19:56:30 »
So the debate does not seem to have negatively impacted the LPC.  I wasn’t sure how it would affect them given their absence.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

I guess we’ll see what next week brings.
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