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The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

Wait, isn’t that against what Trump is trying to do?

Interesting times.
Well if it was up to Elon Musk the giants of LocMart, RTX, Boeing etc would be dismantled and gutted, so I suspect they are carefully looking for options to ensure their continued successes.

If a window from a Boeing plane accidentally falls out again and landed on Elon, I wouldn’t be overly surprised…
 
There's no point getting Eurofighters, Rafales or Gripens after getting 65 x F-35's. We already determined the F-35's were the best option for us when we (finally) made our Hornet replacement decision. Why would we pick the 2nd/3rd/4th choices ten years later? GCAP or FCAS might be options but in all likelihood they won't even be in production yet when we've rec'd our 65th F-35 (which will still have plenty of life in them).

I predict that we'll get all 88 of our F-35's because they'll still be the best option available for us. By the time we're ready to replace them there will quite possibly be something newer than GCAP or FCAS to consider.

If we're smart, instead of looking to back out of our F-35 order or reduce it and mess around with the idea of two small mixed fleets of crewed aircraft, we should be looking now to get involved in a UCAV program. Partner with one of the several projects already underway and get production happening here in Canada. They would be a great supplement to our F-35's and unlike manned fighters, Canada could have demand for hundreds of UCAVs which would be enough volume to make domestic production actually make economic sense. If we jump on this early enough we could even be in a position to develop an export market to countries that are slower to make the leap to uncrewed systems.
 
I think y’all are on crack if you think that you would get a second fleet before the F-35 has rotten out…

The GoC would move on, and consider the role and program closed.

Look how long it took to replace the Hornets.

I'll take this bet. I don't think the mood of the country right now is anything like the past. And I've not seen this much interest in defence spending, in my lifetime.

The assumption on all this failing, is that we're going back to normal with the US. And maybe the Americans think that. Canadians don't.

We'll buy some F-35s. But my money is on 50-70. Not 88 now. Every day that goes buy with Trump's belligerence, the odds of a second fleet go up.
 
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Wait, isn’t that against what Trump is trying to do?

Interesting times.

LMCO is looking for billions of revenue, not some Chapter 11 ‘informed’ good ideas…

LockMart is terrified we'll order 50-60 and then sign up for one of the European programs. And if that becomes a trend with more than Canada, the base over which they're amortizing all the development costs of their Block Upgrades gets smaller than anticipated. This makes unit costs go up. Which means less orders, even at home, which makes unit costs go up, which means less orders....

Block IV was estimated to be over $10B. Now clocking in at $16.5B. Imagine amortizing that with even a 10% order cut.


As far as Canada goes, how does LockMart plan to offer any guarantees when Trump won't even honour the very trade deal he signed in his first term? What's stopping him from signing an Executive Order demanding that those jobs get repatriated? Too much of a trust deficit with the US, for the foreseeable future.
 
I'll take this bet. I don't think the mood of the country right now is anything like the past. And I've not seen this much interest in defence spending, in my lifetime.

The assumption on all this failing, is that we're going back to normal with the US. And maybe the Americans think that. Canadians don't.

We'll buy some F-35s. But my money is on 50-70. Not 88 now. Every day that goes buy with Trump's belligerence, the odds of a second fleet go up.
Even if you did eventually get a second fleet, you’re going to be out of Hornets long before you get all your F-35’s. How long do you think that would take?

LockMart is terrified we'll order 50-60 and then sign up for one of the European programs. And if that becomes a trend with more than Canada, the base over which they're amortizing all the development costs of their Block Upgrades gets smaller than anticipated. This makes unit costs go up. Which means less orders, even at home, which makes unit costs go up, which means less orders....

Block IV was estimated to be over $10B. Now clocking in at $16.5B. Imagine amortizing that with even a 10% order cut.


As far as Canada goes, how does LockMart plan to offer any guarantees when Trump won't even honour the very trade deal he signed in his first term? What's stopping him from signing an Executive Order demanding that those jobs get repatriated? Too much of a trust deficit with the US, for the foreseeable future.
One can’t simply Executive Order things, especially things like that mainly because the fact that it could lead to a challenge to the Executive Order in court. Executive Orders are very flimsy given they have no constitutional backing, try to ram something like that against a corporation that has a healthy stable of attorneys, and you may have a very bad day from a fairly strict constitutionally based USSC.
 
Even if you did eventually get a second fleet, you’re going to be out of Hornets long before you get all your F-35’s. How long do you think that would take?

If we get anywhere close to the original 65, the number of Hornets left is irrelevant. Again, 65 frames was to meet both NORAD and NATO commitments. Anything above and beyond that is actually capability growth.

One can’t simply Executive Order things, especially things like that mainly because the fact that it could lead to a challenge to the Executive Order in court. Executive Orders are very flimsy given they have no constitutional backing, try to ram something like that against a corporation that has a healthy stable of attorneys, and you may have a very bad day from a fairly strict constitutionally based USSC.

Given that nobody is actually pushing back in the US in any actually serious way and the Administration can just do whatever they want, can they actually be trusted not to bully LockMart into cutting back on their pledges? The very fact that this question has to be asked, is reason enough why a two fleet solution should at least be given serious consideration.
 
Even if you did eventually get a second fleet, you’re going to be out of Hornets long before you get all your F-35’s. How long do you think that would take?

How long? Not long at all.

A retired French Mirage pilot friend of mine now living in Canada says Dassault is chomping at the bit to start production and loan the RCAF some goodwill aircraft later this year.

One can’t simply Executive Order things, especially things like that mainly because the fact that it could lead to a challenge to the Executive Order in court. Executive Orders are very flimsy given they have no constitutional backing, try to ram something like that against a corporation that has a healthy stable of attorneys, and you may have a very bad day from a fairly strict constitutionally based USSC.

Like ytz says, very little pushback from much of the defense-indsutrial complex on a number of fronts, so one can’t really trust that an EO would be ignored or poo-pooed…
 
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How long? Not long at all.

A retired French Mirage pilot friend of mine now living in Canada says Dassault is chomping at the bit to start production and loan the RCAF some goodwill aircraft later this year.
My question isn’t of foreign industry, but the time for the RCAF and GoC to get a requirement staffed, and contract implemented, as well as any legal challenges from Bombardier with their new fighter concept rendering :sneaky:
Like ytz says, very little pushback from much of the defense-indsutrial complex on a number of fronts, so one can’t really trust that an EO would be ignored or poo-pooed…
I don’t think ytz is following the efforts that many US Defense Contractors are making with their senators and congressional representatives, both directly and via lobbyists.
 
My question isn’t of foreign industry, but the time for the RCAF and GoC to get a requirement staffed, and contract implemented, as well as any legal challenges from Bombardier with their new fighter concept rendering :sneaky:
I hear tell 😉 it can move very quickly when it wants to.
 
I hear tell 😉 it can move very quickly when it wants to.
I’d say the C-17 and Hook programs aren’t a good example for two reasons.

1) Those were not done by or for fighter pilots
2) There was an operational need while Canadians were in combat.
 
A retired French Mirage pilot friend of mine now living in Canada says Dassault is chomping at the bit to start production and loan the RCAF some goodwill aircraft later this year.
So in France pro-Russia Marine Le Pen is currently leading poles for the 2027 presidential elections. So if she wins the Presidency and her National Rally party wins a plurality in the National Assembly then do we end up in the same situation with the Rafale as we are now with the F-35?

Does France have any vested interest in Canada's security? At least with the US we can be fairly confident that they don't want anyone (but them) being able to enter our airspace undetected/unopposed.
 
I’d say the C-17 and Hook programs aren’t a good example for two reasons.

1) Those were not done by or for fighter pilots
2) There was an operational need while Canadians were in combat.

Half yea. The other half was a PM who made it happen.

Current PM can make bureaucrats make stuff happen if he wants to…especially if he wins the election.

So in France pro-Russia Marine Le Pen is currently leading poles for the 2027 presidential elections. So if she wins the Presidency and her National Rally party wins a plurality in the National Assembly then do we end up in the same situation with the Rafale as we are now with the F-35?

Yup, but we’re not there yet, and Trump (Gabbard, et al) are still lapping up Putin’s rapprochement between Russia and America.

Does France have any vested interest in Canada's security?

Billions of Francs say, “enough of an interest…”

At least with the US we can be fairly confident that they don't want anyone (but them) being able to enter our airspace undetected/unopposed.

Our? Their?

Or are we really just a North American version Fulda Gap speed bump?
 
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Or are we really just a North American version Fulda Gap speed bump?
I'd argue back in the earlier NORAD days, yes we were, since the plans were to intercept and destroy incoming bombers in northern Canadian airspace by nuking the formations with Bomarcs, Genies and Falcons...and hopefully only the Inuit would be living "The Chrysalids".
 
I don’t think ytz is following the efforts that many US Defense Contractors are making with their senators and congressional representatives, both directly and via lobbyists.

"Efforts".

Call me when they actually grow a spine and stop the batshit crazy things going on.

Till then. No government in their right mind should be betting the farm on the US. And that's what committing to the full 88 frame number means. It means we sign up for "Ride or die." With Donald Trump.
 
Does France have any vested interest in Canada's security? At least with the US we can be fairly confident that they don't want anyone (but them) being able to enter our airspace undetected/unopposed.

France can be dealt with on a commercial basis. That's their interest. There's no way at all to do that with the US if we simply commit everything right now. Like seriously, you're literally suggesting to double down and give the Trump administration even more leverage.

Some of you guys must be get invited to a lot of poker games.
 
Billions of Francs say, “enough of an interest…”
Compare Canada's trade with France vs our trade with the United States

Edit because original spreadsheet attachment didn't display correctly:

USA: $1,193,856,5 million dollars per year
France: $12,323.9 million dollars per year
Our trade with the US is 61 times our trade with France.
Our? Their?

Or are we really just a North American version Fulda Gap speed bump?
To be blunt....yes. Let's be honest, should we expect ANY foreign nation to view us in any way other than through the prism of their own national interest? Did the fact that the Fulda Gap was viewed as a "speed bump" to the Red Army make West Germany any less of a sovereign state? I'm sure the Germans were quite happy to have the US invested in their defence during the Cold War even if it was in their own self interest.
 
Do you honestly think Canada is not going to diversify any of its economy away from the US? I’m quite confident in postulating that Canada’s business with France will increase.
 
Do you honestly think Canada is not going to diversify any of its economy away from the US? I’m quite confident in postulating that Canada’s business with France will increase.
And it would be good business to get onboard with their growing defence sector where we can actually fit in as a medium-sized player. We'll only ever get table scraps from the Americans. And now they have some humiliation kink they need exercised before those deals.
 
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