Author Topic: The Next Conservative Leader  (Read 132228 times)

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Offline ARMY_101

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Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #25 on: April 29, 2013, 11:20:07 »
I doubt being single or unmarried is a "con" that would prevent him from being a PM; there are other heads of government who are unmarried.

Very few Prime Ministers of Canada and no President of the United States has ever held office while not being married. Most PMs and Presidents have been married, or at least widowed, while they held office.

The reason, to me at least, is simple: getting married and having children is the purpose humans are on this Earth.  What Canadian would view a Prime Minister as 'normal' when he has no wife and no children?  Kenney is a tireless worker no doubt, but that strong work ethic may work against him should he intend to seek the leadership: what does it say about a man who prioritizes his work above getting married and starting a family?

Even sterile women are publicly called out and humiliated when seeking top office. Why? Because they're not seen as normal.

(One purpose of) government is to allow families to grow and prosper - who wants a single guy making policies when he has no real experience in dealing with the demands of a family?
« Last Edit: April 29, 2013, 11:23:52 by ARMY_101 »

Offline Monsoon

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Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #26 on: April 29, 2013, 12:40:14 »
Very few Prime Ministers of Canada and no President of the United States has ever held office while not being married. Most PMs and Presidents have been married, or at least widowed, while they held office.
Unmarried Prime Ministers governed Canada for almost third of the last century. I would suggest that in Canada, at least, the image problems you highlighted exist more in theory than in fact.

Offline Bass ackwards

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Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #27 on: April 29, 2013, 12:41:37 »
Very few Prime Ministers of Canada and no President of the United States has ever held office while not being married. Most PMs and Presidents have been married, or at least widowed, while they held office.

The reason, to me at least, is simple: getting married and having children is the purpose humans are on this Earth.  What Canadian would view a Prime Minister as 'normal' when he has no wife and no children?  Kenney is a tireless worker no doubt, but that strong work ethic may work against him should he intend to seek the leadership: what does it say about a man who prioritizes his work above getting married and starting a family?

Even sterile women are publicly called out and humiliated when seeking top office. Why? Because they're not seen as normal.

(One purpose of) government is to allow families to grow and prosper - who wants a single guy making policies when he has no real experience in dealing with the demands of a family?

101, do you think that would apply as much today after a half century or so of social engineering has made the traditional family almost...passe'?
It seems to me that being a "first (insert your new and improved demographic of choice here)" is all the rage these days.
And the major voting bloc that ordinarily would lean towards the stable, traditional family man (or woman); the older generation - is now filling up with people who grew up in the sixties and seventies and who started all this crap.

Offline ARMY_101

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Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #28 on: April 29, 2013, 12:50:22 »
Unmarried Prime Ministers governed Canada for almost third of the last century. I would suggest that in Canada, at least, the image problems you highlighted exist more in theory than in fact.

Besides Pierre Trudeau, the unmarried PMs were in the 1920s-1940s (King and Bennett). I would suggest during those times the Canadian public was more concerned with crisis and war than whether their PM had the right values.

Offline ARMY_101

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Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #29 on: April 29, 2013, 12:55:32 »
101, do you think that would apply as much today after a half century or so of social engineering has made the traditional family almost...passe'?
It seems to me that being a "first (insert your new and improved demographic of choice here)" is all the rage these days.
And the major voting bloc that ordinarily would lean towards the stable, traditional family man (or woman); the older generation - is now filling up with people who grew up in the sixties and seventies and who started all this crap.

The major voting bloc IS the people who grew up in the 1960s and 70s. The highest turnout rates are seen in men between the ages of 55 and 74. This is also, not coincidentally, the bloc most likely to vote conservative: http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rec/part/estim/41ge&document=report41&lang=e.

Besides that, the Canadian public doesn't elect the Conservative leader,  the Conservative Party of Canada does.  Do you think the party standing for family values and marriage would elect a leader who has neither?

Offline dapaterson

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Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #30 on: April 29, 2013, 13:10:17 »
Besides that, the Canadian public doesn't elect the Conservative leader,  the Conservative Party of Canada does.  Do you think the party standing for family values and marriage would elect a leader who has neither?

They would elect a single, bald, bearded, one-legged, one-eyed pervert in a thong if they thought he would get elected.  As would any party - ideological purity is for the Ed Broadbent NDP; political parties are all about power.
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Offline Bass ackwards

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Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #31 on: April 29, 2013, 13:30:20 »
The major voting bloc IS the people who grew up in the 1960s and 70s. The highest turnout rates are seen in men between the ages of 55 and 74. This is also, not coincidentally, the bloc most likely to vote conservative: http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rec/part/estim/41ge&document=report41&lang=e.

Besides that, the Canadian public doesn't elect the Conservative leader,  the Conservative Party of Canada does.  Do you think the party standing for family values and marriage would elect a leader who has neither?

That's what I was getting with regards to the largest voting bloc. It is my belief (and I hope I'm wrong) that we will see more and more of a trend towards the left in older voters as time progresses.

You have a good point about the CPC not electing a single or childless man or woman although I would argue that the absence of a family is by no means proof of the absence of conservative values.
I want my leader to have those values but I also want them to be capable and most of all -I want them to be someone that a majority of Canadians will be happy to see in office.
Ozzie Nelson's no good to me as the head of the CPC if his job consists solely of badgering Prime Minister Trudeau (or Mulcair or -shudder- May) from the opposition bench.

Offline Bass ackwards

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Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #32 on: April 29, 2013, 13:32:28 »
They would elect a single, bald, bearded, one-legged, one-eyed pervert in a thong if they thought he would get elected. 

Great! When do I start?  ;)

Offline Monsoon

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Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #33 on: April 29, 2013, 20:22:28 »
Besides Pierre Trudeau, the unmarried PMs were in the 1920s-1940s (King and Bennett). I would suggest during those times the Canadian public was more concerned with crisis and war than whether their PM had the right values.
To believe that, I would have to accept that the voters of the 1920s (King's first election) were primarily concerned with "crisis and war" (which?), and that Pierre Trudeau was for some reason unique enough for the normal rules you assert to not matter. That's an awful lot of hand-waving.

And then there's Bowell (1894-1896)... I'm not saying that being single couldn't be used against a candidate for PM, I'm just saying that in Canada there's a pretty long history of that line of attack not succeeding.

Offline cupper

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Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #34 on: April 29, 2013, 22:52:27 »
Very few Prime Ministers of Canada and no President of the United States has ever held office while not being married. Most PMs and Presidents have been married, or at least widowed, while they held office.

Go back and recheck your reference. James Buchanan was a bachelor during his presidency.
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Offline S.M.A.

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Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #35 on: June 27, 2013, 22:44:15 »
Is this Andy Radia just pulling things out of his a** with his usual commentary or does he have a point this time? I disagree with Radia's assessment that Mackay should leave.

link

Quote
No more jets or tanks: it’s time for Defence Minister Peter MacKay to retire from politics
By Andy Radia

It's time for Peter MacKay to call it quits.

On Wednesday, Postmedia News became the latest media outlet to speculate that maybe, potentially, perhaps the Defence Minister would be retiring from politics in the near future.

After all, they said, both MacKay's long-time chief of staff and communications director recently quit, he's had some problems with his portfolio and he's a new papa.

Will MacKay actually leave? That remains to be seen.

Should he? Absolutely yes!

MacKay was once seen as a rising star in Ottawa — some even predicted that he would, one day, replace Stephen Harper as the leader of the Conservative Party.

But, over the past couple of years, MacKay's stock has dropped substantially after a series of gaffes and blunders as defence minister.

He's been forced to defend himself over a 10 minute trip on a search-and-rescue helicopter in July 2010. The helicopter picked up MacKay from his personal fishing trip in central Newfoundland at a cost to taxpayers of $32,000.

In 2011 , reports surfaced that MacKay incurred pricey hotel tabs during conference stays in Europe, which saw one bill reach $1,452 per night.

He's also been ridiculed for the F-35 boondoggle and other military procurement nightmares.

Earlier this week, the Canadian Press reported that "civilian staff numbers at National Defence grew by almost 30 per cent over six years, despite budget cuts and warnings the military has too much 'tail and not enough teeth.'"

And, on Thursday, MacKay was involved in a photo-op to 'deliver' Canada's first new CH-147F Chinook transport helicopter. That is good news but the process was marred with controversy. The NDP put out a statement claiming the helicopters are five years late and millions over budget while CBC reminds us that, in 2010, Auditor General Sheila Fraser complained that National Defence "underestimated and understated" the complexity of the contracts for the Chinook.


Certainly defence is a difficult portfolio, but overall MacKay has proven that he's not up for the challenge.

Right-leaning political consultant Gerry Nicholls contends that MacKay doesn't have much of a future in the Conservative Party.

"If MacKay is interested in career advancement, he’d be wise to leave federal politics," he told Yahoo! Canada News.

"His infamous “Orchard deal”, his seeming incompetence in dealing with the F-35 jet controversy; his resolute opposition to allowing “one member one vote” for Conservative leadership contests, have soured him with large elements of the party’s base.

"In other words, as far as Conservative politics goes, MacKay has no place but down or out."

For his benefit, MacKay could probably make a lot more money in the private sector.

And if he still wants to be leader of the Conservatives one day — maybe stepping a way for a couple years would be the smartest thing for him to do.
Former Prime Minister Jean Chretien took a so-called 'strategic retreat' from politics in 1986 and only returned in 1990 to take the over the Liberal leadership.

If MacKay — a very likable and intelligent guy — left politics he could spend some time with the new wife and baby, get some real world experience, become a part-time commentator and maybe regain the respect of the Canadian public.

How does that old saying go: Absence makes the heart grow fonder?

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Offline E.R. Campbell

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Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #36 on: June 28, 2013, 05:42:14 »
Is this Andy Radia just pulling things out of his a** with his usual commentary or does he have a point this time? I disagree with Radia's assessment that Mackay should leave.

link


See, also, this.
It is ill that men should kill one another in seditions, tumults and wars; but it is worse to bring nations to such misery, weakness and baseness
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Offline E.R. Campbell

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Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #37 on: July 02, 2013, 11:11:54 »
Just because it's a slow news day week season, Liberal insider Warren Kinsella pours a little gasoline on the CPC leadership fire with this column, which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Toronto Sun, about why Prime Minister Harper should resign before the 2015 general election:

http://www.torontosun.com/2013/06/28/why-harper-will-quit-while-hes-ahead
Quote
Why Harper will quit while he’s ahead

BY WARREN KINSELLA, QMI AGENCY

FIRST POSTED: MONDAY, JULY 01, 2013

It’s (finally) summertime, when the political speculation is easy.

Heretofore, the subject that no longer seems as crazy as it once did: Will Stephen Harper quit before the next federal election in October 2015?

There are plenty of reasons why he shouldn’t, or why he won’t.

But there are 10 very good reasons why he just might, too. Here they be:

     1. Ten years is a long time: By the time the next election takes place, Harper will have been in power for nearly a decade. Very few last that long, and those who overstay their welcome inevitably end up regretting
         their decision. After that much time has gone by, voters start to get sick of your face.

     2. He could lose. As pollsters have been saying for months, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau is the real deal. By now, it is clear that his popularity is no passing fad. For the first time, Harper needs to consider the
         possibility that he could to lose to someone he clearly considers his inferior. He doesn’t want to do that.

     3. His party is getting restless. As Alberta Wildrose supporter Rod Love once observed: “When the water dries up, the animals begin to look at each other differently.” So too in politics. Harper’s backbench is no
         longer afraid of him, and rebelling. His PMO is heartily detested throughout the Conservative hinterland. To many Conservatives, Harper is being quietly regarded as a liability, and not an asset.

     4. Leadership shenanigans abound: Jason Kenney has been running a leadership campaign for months; Peter MacKay is warning he will quit the party if he doesn’t get his way on leadership selection rules. Harper,
         mindful of what Jean Chretien endured, may be persuaded to choose discretion over valour.

     5. He is not a wealthy man: Harper and his wife own their Calgary home, but not much else. And, as Calgary Conservative legend Harvie Andre once queried: “Why is it more profitable to know Harvie Andre than to
         be Harvie Andre?” Harper, knowing this, may decide he needs to build up a retirement nest egg while he still can.

     6. He’s a young man: Not even 60, Harper has many prime earning years ahead of him — as a corporate rainmaker, as a member of lucrative boards, as the giver of big-ticket speeches. Why wait until he can’t enjoy
         the fruits of his labours? Why not go while the getting’s good?

     7. Everything starts to look the same: After 10 years in the same job, new files aren’t as exciting or as challenging as they once were. Things develop a sameness to them; boredom and sloppiness start to set in.
         When that happens, it’s time to go.

     8. The Cons don’t stand for anything anymore: Even the party faithful are admitting the mission statement is long forgotten. They have become, in effect, what they came to Ottawa to destroy. Even Harper, a policy
         wonk and partisan, would be hard pressed to express his party’s raison d’etre. Canadians sure can’t.

     9. The job is done: Harper wanted to do three things. One, reduce the Liberal Party to a shadow of its former self. Two, unite conservatives as a single political force. Three, make conservativism a less radical
         political choice. He has indisputably done all three. His legacy is achieved.

     10. Him: Watch him. Listen to him. There is no joy in the job for him anymore. There is no challenge. He looks unhappy.

Will he go?

Who knows?

But no one should be surprised, now, if he does.


Most of them are not bad reasons. Numbers 5 and 6 are good, practical reasons to call it a day. Numbers 1, 4 and 9 are good political reasons to go, too. Numbers 7 and 10 are personal reasons but they could be compelling.

Numbers 2, 3 and 8 are nonsense, but, even so, there are seven good valid reasons to go.

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Offline E.R. Campbell

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Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #38 on: July 02, 2013, 11:50:10 »
Although I never factored him into the leadership sweepstakes, it is still a bit of a surprise, to me, to learn that Ted Menzies will not run again in 2015.

Ted Menzies is Minister of State for Finance and might, in my mind, have been in line for the Finance job IF Jim Flaherty moves on. Maybe his resignation signals that Flaherty will not move.
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Offline Thucydides

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Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #39 on: July 02, 2013, 15:06:35 »
I think Kinsella may be right on the (7) reasons for Prime Minister Harper to retire, but he has the date wrong: Harper will leave office with the Young Dauphin's scalp on his belt.

The leadership race will begin after the 2015 election so the new leader is in place and has time to reshape the party for 2019.
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Offline MAJONES

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Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #40 on: July 02, 2013, 15:29:53 »
Harper will leave office with the Young Dauphin's scalp on his belt.

As much as I hope you're right, I'm not so sure who's scalp is going to be on who's belt.

Offline Hatchet Man

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Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #41 on: July 02, 2013, 16:35:48 »
As much as I hope you're right, I'm not so sure who's scalp is going to be on who's belt.

Considering the dauphin did run for leadership so much as he was acclaimed, and has presented much in the way of a platform (yet), I will put money down, he gets his butt handed to him. Harper and his government maybe long in the tooth, but they haven't had any HRDC boondogles, or Shawingate or Adscam.  Yeah they have had problems, but they pale in comparison to those shenanigans.  For all the sky is falling stuff flung at Harper, none of it has come to fruition.

Offline Ostrozac

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Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #42 on: July 02, 2013, 17:11:28 »
Regardless of whether Steven Harper wins or loses the next election, after that election would be the logical time to step down, wouldn't it? If he gets defeated by young Trudeau, then he would certainly be expected to resign. And if he wins a fourth consecutive term, that would seem to be the perfect time for him to step aside and let the next leader run the shop for a while until another election in the 2019ish timeframe.

I can't see Steven Harper resigning soon, putting his party through a leadership race in 2014, only to then have an election in 2015. Too many things can go wrong in that scenario. I think if that was his plan, he would have announced his intention to resign by now.

Offline jpjohnsn

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Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #43 on: July 02, 2013, 17:14:58 »
Considering the dauphin did run for leadership so much as he was acclaimed, and has presented much in the way of a platform (yet), I will put money down, he gets his butt handed to him. Harper and his government maybe long in the tooth, but they haven't had any HRDC boondogles, or Shawingate or Adscam.  Yeah they have had problems, but they pale in comparison to those shenanigans.  For all the sky is falling stuff flung at Harper, none of it has come to fruition.
It would be far better to take JT and his Liberals on their current policies (or lack thereof) and record. Trying to evoke scandals of the past is just as likely to backfire badly as succeed.   Whatever Justin's faults (and they are legion), he has a charisma that Ignatieff, Dion or even Martin did not.  The backlash and mocking that came with the first "In over his head" spot should act as a warning.  The Barrie Advance PMO leak debacle should have rung some major alarm bells as to trying to pin things on him that aren't relevant (i.e. trying to concoct a scandal about something that happened before he was even an MP). Doubling down would be stupid.  Let him do their work for them.  Unfortunately, that would require some subtlety  in handling that hasn't been in evidence much lately.

For example, it has gone largely unnoticed that Justin rushed to Edmonton to do whatever it takes to lend a hand yet still made it to the Pride Parade in Toronto before the job was finished. 

If an adversary is running headlong towards a cliff, don't try and give him a push.  If you misjudge it, you could prevent him from going over or end up going over yourself. instead  Just step aside and watch.
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Offline Hatchet Man

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Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #44 on: July 02, 2013, 17:47:42 »
It would be far better to take JT and his Liberals on their current policies (or lack thereof) and record. Trying to evoke scandals of the past is just as likely to backfire badly as succeed.   Whatever Justin's faults (and they are legion), he has a charisma that Ignatieff, Dion or even Martin did not.  The backlash and mocking that came with the first "In over his head" spot should act as a warning.  The Barrie Advance PMO leak debacle should have rung some major alarm bells as to trying to pin things on him that aren't relevant (i.e. trying to concoct a scandal about something that happened before he was even an MP). Doubling down would be stupid.  Let him do their work for them.  Unfortunately, that would require some subtlety  in handling that hasn't been in evidence much lately.

For example, it has gone largely unnoticed that Justin rushed to Edmonton to do whatever it takes to lend a hand yet still made it to the Pride Parade in Toronto before the job was finished. 

If an adversary is running headlong towards a cliff, don't try and give him a push.  If you misjudge it, you could prevent him from going over or end up going over yourself. instead  Just step aside and watch.

You misinterpreted me.  I didn't say, Harper and the gang should talk about the scandals of Chretien/Martin, I was merely highlighting that the "scandals" in and around Harper are small potatoes compared to Chretien/Martin, and despite the constant soundtrack that Harper and his government will destroy Canada etc. none of the dire prophecies and edicts from various parties and partisans came true.  While I don't think they misfired per se launching right into Trudeau, (since the same tactic of branding your opponent before he can brand himself, worked to great effect before).  I think they are now going to let JT do the work for them (senate comments, these speaking fees).  When it comes to the election he is going to get eviscerated, since there are now only 3 major parties, and the other 2 leaders sure as hell won't be inclined to let the liberals make a come back. 

 

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Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #45 on: July 02, 2013, 18:27:49 »
Those who think the Torries are going to savage Mr Trudeau come election time are ignoring just how nasty the NDP will become as it tries to hold onto opposition status. The real battle is not going to be Con vs Lib, rather Lib vs NDP. The Torries have to let them chew on each other while avoiding shooting themselves in the foot.
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Offline Hatchet Man

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Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #46 on: July 02, 2013, 18:47:57 »
Those who think the Torries are going to savage Mr Trudeau come election time are ignoring just how nasty the NDP will become as it tries to hold onto opposition status. The real battle is not going to be Con vs Lib, rather Lib vs NDP. The Torries have to let them chew on each other while avoiding shooting themselves in the foot.

I agree particularly in Quebec, where the Tories never have a realistic chance anyways.  Unless the BQ makes a miraculous reappearance, it will be Mulcair ripping into JT.

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Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #47 on: July 02, 2013, 21:02:24 »
>Liberal insider Warren Kinsella pours a little gasoline on the CPC leadership fire

More briar patch journalism.
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Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #48 on: July 02, 2013, 21:19:32 »

For example, it has gone largely unnoticed that Justin rushed to Edmonton to do whatever it takes to lend a hand yet still made it to the Pride Parade in Toronto before the job was finished. 


Yup, just burned up carbon credits in jet fuel to get a photo op. "I was in Alberta during those devastating times, where was Mr. Harper?"
 
Did he even go to the areas hard hit, fill a sandbag or roll up his shirt sleeves?

Posturing ponce.

The term 'social butterfly' comes to mind.
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Offline E.R. Campbell

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Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #49 on: July 03, 2013, 05:33:29 »
Yup, just burned up carbon credits in jet fuel to get a photo op. "I was in Alberta during those devastating times, where was Mr. Harper?"
 
Did he even go to the areas hard hit, fill a sandbag or roll up his shirt sleeves?

Posturing ponce.

The term 'social butterfly' comes to mind.


I didn't see any pictures of that, but then again I didn't see many pictures of a dirty, sweat soaked Laureen Harper, either, but there were some:


Mrs Harper, some PMO staff and some CPC MPs pitch in in Calgary's cleanup
Source:
Windsor Star

In fairness there were more compelling images than the PM's wife helping her neighbours and, of course, the Nenshi/Redford/Smith PR machines were out in full force.
It is ill that men should kill one another in seditions, tumults and wars; but it is worse to bring nations to such misery, weakness and baseness
as to have neither strength nor courage to contend for anything; to have nothing left worth defending and to give the name of peace to desolation.
Algernon Sidney in Discourses Concerning Government, (1698)
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